Why Volume?
Efficiency production gets the attention and highlights in your Twitter feed, but having a pulse on the distribution of volume in the NFL plays a huge role in winning your fantasy leagues. The Opportunity Report is designed so you can see what players are getting the best opportunities to produce on the field, thus scoring you fantasy points. After all, your players can’t score fantasy points for you if they never get the opportunity. You want as many dart throws at scoring fantasy points as possible.
Reading the Opportunity Report
| Color | What Does It Mean? | Category Name |
|---|---|---|
| The player highlighted in yellow | The player is measuring 1 standard deviation above average players at his position. | I call this the “Above Average” category. |
| The player is highlighted in green | The player is measuring 2 standard deviations above average players at his position. | I call this the “Exceptional” category. |
| The player is highlighted in blue | The player is measuring 3 standard deviations above the average players at his position. | I call this the “Elite” category. |
Not every running back, wide receiver, and tight end is included in the player pool. The only players included in my data set each week are players that received at least 20% of the top volume producer at their position. For example, the running backs included in the data set are players that amassed at least 20% of the implied touches of the top running back performer in that category. This is to eliminate the players at each position that are not fantasy-relevant and dial in the true top performers.
Running Back
Running Back Volume Leaders: Week 6
| Name | Position | Team | Implied Touches | Targets | % of Team Targets | Attempts | Air Yards | % of Team Air Yards | PPR Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | DAL | 34 | 6 | 15% | 28 | 7 | 2% | 26.2 |
| Chris Carson | RB | SEA | 28 | 4 | 12% | 24 | 1 | 0% | 25.9 |
| Carlos Hyde | RB | HOU | 27 | 1 | 2% | 26 | -1 | 0% | 20 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | CAR | 27 | 5 | 16% | 22 | -13 | -4% | 21.7 |
| Leonard Fournette | RB | JAC | 26 | 6 | 21% | 20 | 3 | 1% | 17.8 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | CLE | 26 | 6 | 16% | 20 | -12 | -3% | 30.9 |
| Adrian Peterson | RB | WAS | 25 | 2 | 8% | 23 | -3 | -1% | 15.6 |
| Sony Michel | RB | NE | 25 | 3 | 7% | 22 | 1 | 0% | 13.3 |
| James Conner | RB | PIT | 23 | 7 | 35% | 16 | -11 | -12% | 30.9 |
| Devonta Freeman | RB | ATL | 22 | 3 | 8% | 19 | 8 | 3% | 26.8 |
| David Johnson | RB | ARI | 20 | 8 | 22% | 12 | 18 | 7% | 28.2 |
| Jamaal Williams | RB | GB | 19 | 5 | 13% | 14 | -1 | 0% | 23.6 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 19 | 8 | 22% | 11 | -1 | 0% | 13.6 |
| Kenyan Drake | RB | MIA | 19 | 9 | 21% | 10 | -8 | -3% | 13 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | GB | 18 | 7 | 18% | 11 | 46 | 12% | 10 |
| Royce Freeman | RB | DEN | 16 | 5 | 18% | 11 | 44 | 20% | 12.6 |
| Melvin Gordon | RB | LAC | 12 | 4 | 9% | 8 | 32 | 7% | 7.8 |
| James White | RB | NE | 11 | 9 | 22% | 2 | -4 | -1% | 13.5 |
| Average Week 6 Player | RB | NFL | 17 | 4 | 11% | 13 | 1 | 0% | 14 |
- Carlos Hyde once again led the Texans in Implied Touches (attempts+targets). In what was projected to be a shootout, Duke Johnson owners thought Week 6 may be their week. However, the Texans followed the blueprint laid out by the Indianapolis Colts in Week 5 and ran right at the Texans defense. Hyde is not being utilized in the passing game which puts a cap on his ceiling, but he can be considered a low-end RB2 or FLEX going forward.
- Aaron Jones under-performed when looking at his production vs. opportunity. Despite Jamaal Williams’ big night, Jones was above still had 7 targets and “Exceptional” level of air yards. He also dropped a wide-open pass for a touchdown, which may have changed our outlook headed into Week 7.
- I will be buying current Dolphins running back Kenyan Drake. He is a rumored trade target and leaving Miami means his outlook is only looking up. Even if he stays, he has had sneaky good volume this year, including his “Exceptional” nine target performance last week.
- Another running back I am buying after a disappointing first half is Royce Freeman. He put up an “Elite” rating in air yard market share, getting 20% of the Broncos targets! The Broncos are not afraid to use him on the ground and through the air. He is another back that is lagging in the touchdown department and should expect positive regression going forward. Although Phillip Lindsay is the more explosive of the two backs, Denver is still feeding Freeman despite his underwhelming start. Grab him now while he’s cheap.
Wide Receiver
Wide Receiver Volume Leaders: Week 6
| Name | Position | Team | Targets | % of Team Targets | Air Yards | % of Team Air Yards | PPR Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | WR | MIN | 11 | 38% | 250 | 67% | 43.5 |
| Julian Edelman | WR | NE | 15 | 37% | 169 | 60% | 20.3 |
| Michael Thomas | WR | NO | 12 | 33% | 47 | 22% | 16.9 |
| Mike Evans | WR | TB | 17 | 31% | 226 | 38% | 18.6 |
| D.J. Moore | WR | CAR | 10 | 31% | 95 | 31% | 15.6 |
| Auden Tate | WR | CIN | 12 | 31% | 146 | 49% | 14.1 |
| Odell Beckham | WR | CLE | 11 | 30% | 124 | 35% | 16.1 |
| Tyreek Hill | WR | KC | 10 | 29% | 171 | 49% | 25 |
| Alshon Jeffery | WR | PHI | 12 | 29% | 60 | 16% | 23.6 |
| Golden Tate | WR | NYG | 9 | 29% | 105 | 36% | 22.2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | HOU | 12 | 29% | 83 | 22% | 14.5 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | 8 | 29% | 135 | 62% | 11.6 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | 7 | 28% | 128 | 58% | 26 |
| Adam Thielen | WR | MIN | 8 | 28% | 75 | 20% | 17.7 |
| Kenny Golladay | WR | DET | 9 | 28% | 122 | 37% | 17.1 |
| Jamison Crowder | WR | NYJ | 9 | 28% | 91 | 34% | 15.8 |
| Dede Westbrook | WR | JAC | 8 | 28% | 53 | 24% | 8.3 |
| Darius Slayton | WR | NYG | 8 | 26% | 156 | 54% | 6.2 |
| Robby Anderson | WR | NYJ | 8 | 25% | 92 | 35% | 23.5 |
| Mike Williams | WR | LAC | 10 | 23% | 192 | 40% | 12.2 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | TB | 12 | 22% | 111 | 19% | 25.1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | WR | ARI | 8 | 22% | 84 | 34% | 12.9 |
| Will Fuller | WR | HOU | 9 | 21% | 158 | 43% | 9.4 |
| Curtis Samuel | WR | CAR | 6 | 19% | 113 | 37% | 23.8 |
| Ted Ginn | WR | NO | 6 | 17% | 119 | 56% | 6.8 |
| Scott Miller | WR | TB | 7 | 13% | 147 | 25% | 6.9 |
| Average Week 6 Player | WR | NFL | 6 | 18% | 72 | 24% | 10 |
- Stefon Diggs had what should be his best game of the season. He ranks as “Elite” or “Exceptional” in four of the five metrics used in the Opportunity Report. I’m sorry if you missed out on a boom week for Diggs.
- Courtland Sutton has had a large target share within Denver’s offense. He also is top 10 in yards per route run with 2.34 yards. Sutton has made great strides this season, especially in the drops department.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have been playing from behind this season and throwing on 66% of their plays while the league average is a pass on 59% of a team’s plays. Mike Williams has benefitted with multiple weeks of “Above Average” and “Exceptional” ranks. In Week 6, he was a focus on intermediate and deep routes, compiling 192 air yards on ten targets. Williams is near the top of the league in drops, but the volume is there in a pass friendly offense.
Tight End
Tight End Volume Leaders: Week 6
| Name | Position | Team | Targets | % of Team Targets | Air Yards | % of Team Air Yards | PPR Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | TE | PHI | 9 | 22% | 92 | 25% | 9.4 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | LAC | 9 | 20% | 98 | 20% | 30 |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | 8 | 24% | 38 | 26% | 18.3 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | 8 | 24% | 72 | 30% | 15.9 |
| Austin Hooper | TE | ATL | 8 | 22% | 88 | 28% | 25.7 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | 8 | 20% | 46 | 12% | 9.8 |
| Rhett Ellison | TE | NYG | 7 | 23% | 57 | 20% | 6 |
| Greg Olsen | TE | CAR | 7 | 22% | 56 | 18% | 9.2 |
| Jason Witten | TE | DAL | 7 | 18% | 76 | 22% | 10.7 |
| Darren Fells | TE | HOU | 7 | 17% | 33 | 9% | 12.9 |
| Mike Gesicki | TE | MIA | 7 | 16% | 95 | 36% | 8.1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | DET | 6 | 19% | 26 | 8% | 6.1 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | TE | CLE | 6 | 16% | 74 | 21% | 13.7 |
| Gerald Everett | TE | LA | 5 | 21% | 40 | 26% | 2.9 |
| Nick Vannett | TE | PIT | 1 | 5% | 33 | 36% | 1.5 |
| Average Week 6 Player | TE | NFL | 4 | 12% | 36 | 13% | 8 |
- Falcons tight end Austin Hooper is quietly putting together a great year. In the last two weeks, he has posted a 20%+ target share in the league’s most pass-happy offense. He’s also efficient ranking tenth in yards per route run for tight ends. He should be firmly in place as a TE1 going forward.
- With the revolving door at quarterback in Miami turning back to Ryan Fitzpatrick, the target shares will begin to shift again as well. It may be worth noting that Mike Gesicki received “Exceptional” marks in both air yards metrics and was “above average” in targets. The athletic tight end has been inconsistent this year so it’s just as likely that this wasn’t worth noting at all.
Did you see something in the numbers that I didn’t mention? Help out your fellow QBL readers by posting about it in the comments or @ me on Twitter @KennyQBL.
Stats provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com, AirYards.com, PFF.com
(Photo by David John Griffin/Icon Sportswire)