The Fall season never really starts until the fall clothes have been pulled out of the drawers or off the hangers. Perhaps the only season better than Fall is Draft Season, which is in full swing this Labor Day Weekend. We unroll the giant draft tarps and attach them to the wall, writing out players’ names and hoping your targets fall into your lap.
Sleeper, one of the biggest up-and-comers for fantasy sports and drafting, has taken the world by storm and started to pull people over to their app. With this comes our task of poring over and finding the weaknesses in their ADP. Average Draft Position (ADP), as the name suggests, will tell you where players are being drafted on average for the platform you’re using, whether it be ESPN, Yahoo, or Sleeper. It’s a key metric to help you customize your draft strategy and find ways to outsmart the competition. With no further ado, let’s dive in and chat about a few players I’ll be avoiding at cost in my Sleeper drafts this week.
The Elite Who Worry Me
I’m not here to tell you that Justin Jefferson nor Ja’Marr Chase are overrated or not good, and it wouldn’t take more than a single additional word before everyone tuned out on this article. With that being said, one of my flag plants for this year will be avoiding Jefferson and Chase at their current Sleeper positions. As of writing this article, you are currently paying the steep price of 4th overall for “Jettas” and 5th overall for Chase.
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN) ADP: 4
Jefferson is returning off a year marred with injuries and ding-ups and is now missing Kirk Cousins following the latter’s departure to Atlanta in the off-season. It’s not much of a debate to say that Jefferson is a top-three wide receiver in the league – just pull up the litany of otherworldly catches he makes. However, even with his immense talent, he’s facing an uphill battle this season, as they have a brand new running back to appease in Aaron Jones and a shaky quarterback in Sam Darnold.
Darnold couldn’t cut it in New York and is not new to his share of ghost stories. Aligning himself with the terror that Mark Sanchez received at the hands of Jets fans, Darnold left and waded through the mire of the Panthers play calling, then sat in San Francisco, collecting a check. Darnold can’t win games (21-35 career starters record), and a career-high QBR of 51.4 leads me to believe at this point it’s far less likely coaching and far more likely he can’t cut the transition to pro ball. Jefferson will solve a lot of air balls, but there’s only so much paint that can clean up this junker.
Ja’Marr Chase (WR, CIN) ADP: 5
Ja’Marr Chase finds himself in a situation he has slightly more control over, but one that seems just as worrisome. Chase has made it known that he’s in the market for a deal that will make him the highest-paid wide receiver in the league, notably and hysterically by one penny more than Jefferson. Jefferson may have a far harder offense to feast in, but Chase seems to have no problem sitting until this situation is settled.
The Bengals have an offense that is well set up to succeed, but this may backfire on Chase given the fact it’s a competent, potentially top-5 offense that may be able to patch it together without him. Zack Moss, Tee Higgins, and potential glow-up running back Chase Brown form a strong supporting cast around Joe Burrow that should be able to perform well even if Chase isn’t on the field. I don’t know if getting Chase back in time for Week 1 will quell concerns, as they could ease him into a full workload over the first few weeks of the season given he hasn’t taken many reps on the field yet. Primarily due to the contract and workload concerns, I recommend looking elsewhere for your first-round pick.
A Quarterback and his Former Wingman
Josh Allen (QB, BUF) ADP: 22
Josh Allen is a top 3 yearly quarterback, but the way Sleeper views him, I gotta wonder if he’s got stock in them. Allen currently sits at 22nd overall in Sleeper ADP, a whole round over Patrick Mahomes, and almost a round and a half over Jalen Hurts, which left me scratching my head. Allen is as dynamic a quarterback as they come, but he’s prone to waste drives with picks and inefficiency. Add to this the fact that he lost his security blanket in Stefon Diggs (we’ll get to you soon, Stefon) amidst a charged season last year where at times the two didn’t even want to look at each other.
The hits keep coming, as Gabe Davis left in free agency just as Diggs took off to Houston and their high-powered offense. Allen will now have 241 targets to spread around. He has competent players in Dalton Kincaid and James Cook and a huge opportunity for Kahlil Shakir to expand his role. None of that speaks any ease into my mind on Allen, and I would much rather take Mahomes, Hurts, or another quarterback at their ADPs. Allen’s cost is simply too high in my mind.
Stefon Diggs (WR, Houston) ADP: 33
Mr. Diggs, I’m sorry, but you’re not off the hook either. The last couple of seasons have followed a louder, but more expected decline for an aging wide receiver, which has been tough to watch as a self-proclaimed Diggs fan. His last years in Buffalo were defined by arguments about getting the ball and disdain due to contract situations, with sideline arguments between the star receiver and his quarterback aired out on national television.
Now, Diggs finds himself in Houston as likely the third mouth to be fed in the Texans’ offense and is inarguably the oldest and least exciting of the trio of star receivers. His 140 targets last year in Buffalo would be 30 over what Nico Collins received last year in his ascension to star received last year. Tank Dell only had 75 targets but sustained a dangerous injury last year and had those through just 11 games.
C.J. Stroud is the next star quarterback but he needs a functional and reliable number three to move along the offense. He has a rapport with Collins and a vocal game crush to Dell’s way of play. Diggs could find himself in a low 1,000-yard season, but at a spot where you can get Collins or wait for Dell, I’m looking elsewhere.
Running into Irrelevance
Lastly, we have some running backs who are falling out of interest to me for totally different reasons.
Rachaad White (RB, TB) ADP: 38
Rachaad White, what are you doing, baby?
Tom Brady and Bruce Arians may have had some sort of adoration for this fellow, and I may have had a possible draft crush on him coming out of college, as he had very little competition aside from the tattered remains of muscleman Leonard Fournette, but White did very little to impress. He mustered a paltry 3.6 yards per carry, which was actually down a tenth of a yard from the prior season. What is that getting us? A mid-round three running back, in the presence of a quarterback in Baker Mayfield who wants to be a gunslinger.
Chris Godwin is removed from a laboring injury, Mike Evans continuing his career into the Hall of Fame, and the team quietly picked up Bucky Irving out of Oregon in the fourth round, no small cost given the team the Bucs became without Brady and Arians. Irving is a mighty mite of a back and can also carry the water bucket in terms of pass-catching. White will find himself in a timeshare quickly if he falters or continues to be inefficient on the ground.
Joe Mixon (RB, Hou) ADP: 47 (Late round 4)
Joe Mixon can jump right in here, as he’s the cover athlete for “just keep swimming” running backs. Mixon came out of college highly touted and fell immediately into a splashy, high-paced offense that wanted to hand the ball off to him. Just last year, Mixon received the fifth most carries on a team carrying Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase. While 2022 was an outlier, in 2021 Mixon was the third-highest carrier in the league.
Mixon makes his hay by running and running often. Now he’s stepping into an offense that will likely give him some additional touchdown opportunities, but also cannot afford to give him over 250 carries while attempting to assuage the hands of Diggs, Collins, and Dell. Mixon will likely end his season as a top-20 running back, but that’s not a value in the late 4th round.
Nick Chubb (RB, Cle) ADP 87 (Late 8th round, early 9th)
This last one hurts because Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry were one of the coolest generations of rushers to ever watch, but the sauce is sadly wearing off for Chubb. Watching Chubb move at such a large size was an absolute delight, an immense pairing of speed and brutality, but we’re now looking at a player who is only 11 months removed from torn ACL and MCL injuries that would take down any player.
The Browns are an up-and-coming team in an AFC that is wide open for teams to sneak up the rankings. With Amari Cooper, Jerome Ford, and David Njoku all looking to have large roles cut out for them, as well as a sophomore return of intriguing prospect Cedric Tillman, you have to wonder how quickly this team will push Chubb to compete. Javonte Williams tore his ACL in the 2022 season, and his speed and acceleration were still not fully on display at any point last year. Chubb may see the season for a playoff run or may sit the majority of the year behind chain-mover Jerome Ford to see if they want to give him another year or two in 2025/26 before retirement/free agency. While it’s only an 8th-round pick, I still see very little reason to take him ahead of Jonathon Brooks, Zack Moss, or Javonte Williams where he currently sits.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)