You can’t win your league in the draft, but you can certainly lose it. A successful draft gives your team the foundation to sustain season-long success in fantasy football. One of the best ways to dominate your draft is to identify and avoid players you believe will underperform against their average draft position or ADP. ADP is a helpful draft prep tool for recognizing how the overall market values a player. When you can avoid players who will underperform versus ADP, you can maximize your draft success and put yourself on the path to a fantasy championship.
Let’s look at players who are being overvalued at their current ADP, specifically in terms of ESPN’s data. This is the type of information your league-mates will use when you are drafting with them on ESPN’s platform, so this article is your way to gain an edge on them. All ADP referenced in this article comes from ESPN’s PPR Live Draft Trends report found here, taken on August 22nd.
Players to Avoid Rounds 1-5
Travis Kelce (TE, KC), ADP 23.5: Seeing Kelce appear as an avoid may come as a shock to fantasy managers who have watched him finish as a top 3 TE in points-per-game in three of the last four seasons. This isn’t a knock against Kelce the player, it’s a knock against his acquisition cost in your ESPN drafts. Coming in as a 2/3 turn player, the advantage he brings over the TEs behind him is difficult to see. Sam Laporta (ADP 31.8) and Mark Andrews (ADP 45.6) are the next two TEs taken off the board and I believe both have overall TE1 upside. The upside of the alternatives at the TE position combined with their significant difference in ADP makes Kelce a player to avoid at cost.
Michael Pittman (WR, IND), ADP 29.2: Coming off the 2023 season, it may be difficult to view Pittman as a player to avoid. Last season Pittman racked up a tremendous 156 targets and finished as the WR13 in PPR. He also commanded a 30.4% target share while running a route on 100% of the Colts passing plays, per PlayerProfiler. For 2024, a change from QB Gardner Minshew to Anthony Richardson presents a reason for concern. With Richardson behind center, the team is projected to implement one of the most run-heavy schemes in the NFL. With potential decreases in volume plus Richardson’s accuracy concerns as a passer, it could be difficult for Pittman to provide a positive return on investment.
Joe Mixon (RB, HOU), ADP 31.3: The fade on Joe Mixon doesn’t have to do with his opportunity in 2024, it has to do with who you pass on to acquire him. The Texans also acquired serious WR talent this off-season, adding Bills WR Stefon Diggs. Many hope this could be a great step into fully unlocking the potential of second-year rising star CJ Stroud. As the starting RB in an offense many expect to be among the league leaders, if Mixon gets his usual volume (~300 touches) he will have plentiful opportunities to return value to fantasy managers. However, by selecting Mixon you exclude yourself from taking some of the excellent values around him in ADP. Lions TE Sam Laporta is coming off a TE1 overall season and is slotted immediately after Mixon by ADP. Considering other value picks in that range such as Nico Collins, Drake London, or De’Von Achane, it becomes easier to avoid Mixon at ADP.
James Cook (RB, BUF), ADP 32.9: James Cook has been unfairly driven up draft boards in 2024. After the addition of OC Joe Brady halfway through the 2023 season, Cook averaged over 5 yards per touch and had an outstanding second half. Many believe Brady will continue his run-heavy scheme in 2024, catapulting Cook too far up boards for my liking. When playing alongside Josh Allen, getting your touchdowns vultured is a legitimate concern. In 2023 Allen scored 9 more rushing TDs than Cook, a figure that’s high enough to warrant concern about Cook’s scoring upside. When considering Cook’s scoring challenges in culmination with terrific values being drafted around him, Cook will be a player I continue to avoid at ADP.
CJ Stroud (QB, HOU), ADP 46.8: Last season CJ Stroud treated us to one of the most impressive rookie seasons ever at the QB position, finishing top 11 in total points and points per game. This year his ADP on ESPN places him firmly at QB5, about half a round over QB6 Anthony Richardson. Stroud finds himself on this avoid list because his rushing upside just isn’t there. With only 167 rushing yards in 15 games, the powerful floor that rushing provides high-end QBs is not present for Stroud. The QBs taken behind him, whether similar pocket passers like Joe Burrow or Jordan Love or rushing threats like Kyler Murray, provide the same if not better upside than Stroud and make it easy to pass him by at ADP.
Players to Avoid Rounds 6-10
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE), ADP 64.7: When looking to identify players to avoid by ADP, a helpful thought process can be attempting to identify players being drafted at or near their ceiling. I believe Rhamondre Stevenson will be one of those players in 2024. While he has shown the ability to perform as a top-12 RB, finishing as the PPR RB7 in 2022, his usage in a league-worst offense is cause for concern. A huge part of Rhamondre finishing so well in 2022 was his pass-catching, totaling 69 receptions for 419 yards. This may not repeat in 2024, with the Patriots acquiring former Washington RB Antonio Gibson. Gibson has commanded over a 9% target share every season he has played in the NFL, showing comfortability in the role and a strong chance of eating into Rhamondre’s opportunity. With the Patriots currently projected to be the NFL’s worst team and risks of losing his receiving work, Rhamondre is a player who can be passed over without fear.
Calvin Ridley (WR, JAX), ADP 69.7: After finishing the 2023 season as the PPR WR18 in 2023, Ridley signed a four-year, $92 million contract with the Tennessee Titans. Ridley will join veteran pass-catcher Deandre Hopkins on a Titans offense that ranked 28th in the NFL with a minute 180 passing yards per game. The Titans are doing their best to fill the team with talent, also bringing in RB Tony Pollard from the Cowboys. Despite the new-look offense, if second-year QB Will Levis can’t take the next step forward, the passing volume in the Titans offense may not sustain Ridley’s 6th-round price tag.
Zamir White (RB, OAK), ADP 76.7: Similar to my case for avoiding Rhamondre Stevenson, Zamir White is being labeled as a player to avoid due to questionable upside. 2024 will be White’s first full year as a starter, with Josh Jacobs joining Green Bay in the off-season. While White played well down the stretch last season, his profile has a lot of holes that make him a risky choice at ADP. Firstly, the offense he plays on does not project to be high-quality. Question marks around the QB position and subpar playmakers outside of veteran Davante Adams point to an offense that will not have a lot of scoring opportunities. Add to that White’s complete lack of receiving work, producing a measly 3.6% target share in 2023. When an RB doesn’t catch passes and plays in a poor offense, the opportunity to return value at an ADP this high is rare.
Defenses & Kickers: Drafting your DST or Kicker position in the middle rounds can look intriguing, especially when you’re on a platform like ESPN where their ADPs start in the late 80s. Historically, it’s rare to luck upon one of these positions in the draft that you can confidently start throughout the season. Passing on startable skill position players in favor of a DST or K can put your team at a disadvantage from the start. A popular approach to DST & K is streaming the position. For more information on streaming DST, check out our article on the Best Defensive Matchups Weeks 1-4.
Brock Purdy (QB, SF), ADP 107.9: As a former final pick in the NFL draft, Brock Purdy has proven the haters wrong since becoming San Francisco’s starting QB. In the past, Purdy has performed well for fantasy managers due to an abnormally high TD rate of over 7%. For reference, Patrick Mahomes has one such season under his belt. If Purdy cannot keep the same TD rate, or another pocket-passing QB taken after Purdy like Jared Goff or Tua Tagovaloa can surpass his production, it will be difficult to deliver the fantasy finishes he has in previous seasons. Purdy also has a crutch in the fact he does not produce many fantasy points with his legs, totaling only 157 yards in 25 games started. With more mobile QBs like Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels taken after Purdy in ESPN drafts, your ability to produce high-scoring lineups will improve if you avoid Purdy at ADP.
Throw Your Darts Elsewhere Rounds 11+
Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA), ADP 137.6: The 2023 season brought about Tyler Lockett’s worst fantasy performance since 2017. Receptions, yards, and touchdowns all regressed versus the previous season. Looking ahead to 2024, Lockett will be turning 32 in late September. The situation is not looking positive. Second-year first-rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba is looking primed for an expanded role in the offense, and DK Metcalf figures to remain the team’s top target. Lockett’s advanced age and strong competition for targets make him an easy player to avoid late in drafts when I’m chasing upside.
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI), ADP 151.2: The Chicago Bears’ new-look offense has had fantasy managers polarized the entire 2024 offseason. Whether it’s breaking down the WR room or the backfield, they have folks picking their favorite players to target on the team. Following preseason action, we can add TE to that list of confounding positional groups as well. After looking like the de facto starter, Kmet was out-snapped 29-19 by newcomer Gerald Everett while playing with the Bears starters. If this is a sign of things to come, Everett may have a bigger role than expected, making Kmet an easy player to avoid.
Adam Thielen (WR, CAR), ADP 158.1: If you thought Tyler Lockett was getting old at age 32, Adam Thielen has him beaten entering 2024 at 34. In 2023, Thielen benefited from an outstanding 26% target share to propel him into fantasy relevance. The additions of Dionte Johnson & Xavier Legette bring much more competition to the Panthers offense than Thielen had to contend with last season. Without his massive volume, Thielen does not excite me in the Panthers’ league-worst offense.
Kendre Miller (RB, NO), ADP 158.7: If you’ve been following training camp news, this one probably doesn’t surprise you. Not only has Miller been injured most of the off-season, but his coaching staff has been increasingly vocal in their critiques of him. With news now circulating which implies he may not even make the team, Kendre is a safe player to leave off your draft boards this year.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)