Average Draft Position, or ADP is a helpful metric that shows how the market values a player and helps identify how long you can wait to draft a player you like. One of the best ways to gain an edge over your friends and league mates will be to identify areas of opportunity to reach for a player whose ADP isn’t matching what you expect their true value to be or avoid players you feel are being overvalued by the drafting public.
I have compiled a list of players throughout the draft that I think you can aim to avoid at their respective ADP. Let your league mates draft overvalued public favorites and gain the advantage by following this list designed specifically for Yahoo leagues. All ADP referenced in this article comes from Yahoo’s Draft Analysis based on standard scoring settings for Yahoo leagues found here, taken on August 27th.
Players to Avoid Rounds 1-5
Johnathon Taylor (RB, IND), ADP 10.0: The fantasy world’s former favourite is still going off draft boards as the RB4, except this time around I feel very apprehensive about this pick. A couple of seasons riddled with injuries (a nagging ankle injury and then a torn thumb ligament) does enough to explain this season’s lower ADP, but even still I am unsure if the value is there. I struggle to use a first-round pick on an RB who has a QB that will be poaching a ton of TDs all year long like Anthony Richardson, which will severely limit his production. At this price, there are some stud WRs you can take instead, and if you’re insistent on RB you can take someone undervalued like Isiah Pacheco (ADP 19.2).
Saquon Barkley (RB, PHI), ADP 13.1: The argument against Saquon being taken in the first round or early second round is very similar to the argument against Johnathon Taylor, but with a couple of added hurdles. Firstly, Jalen Hurts can poach TDs at an even higher rate with the Eagles’ tendency to run the tush push. Saquon has had some good seasons and consistently finishes as a top-12 RB when he doesn’t deal with injuries. However, since his rookie season, his ceiling has been RB5, so with him coming off the board as RB5, he needs to have an A+ season to meet his expectations. In New York, Saquon was the entire offense and was force-fed touches in both the run game and passing game. In Philadelphia, he joins an offense full of weapons. The Eagles have one of the best WR duos in the league, a serviceable backup RB in Kenneth Gainwell, and once again, a mobile QB in Jalen Hurts. Saquon will not be given the same kind of opportunity to reach the production levels he has in seasons past and is not worth an early-round selection. As with Taylor, look for a WR or Pacheco instead.
Chris Olave (WR, NO), ADP 27.5: Olave has been one of my biggest draft avoids of the season. Not that it’s much of a hot take, but I anticipate that the Saints will continue to spiral this season. The offense is a mess, the offensive line is just bad, and Derek Carr has regressed to the point of being a below-average starting QB. This offense will focus on Alvin Kamara and when (if) the ball gets into the red zone, Taysom Hill will be there to vulture TD opportunities. It just always seems like the team does whatever it can not to throw the ball to Olave, and to use an early third-round pick on someone like that is not worth it. Save yourself the stress and look elsewhere.
DJ Moore (WR, CHI), ADP 39.5: Coming off a stellar season where he finished as the WR6, DJ Moore’s ADP is lower than you might expect. That is due to the arrival of Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze cutting into his target share. However, I still think this is someone you can leave off your draft board. I understand wanting a piece of the Chicago offense, which should be fun and great for fantasy production, however with Allen (ADP 83.3) and Rome (ADP 100.0) being so undervalued compared to Moore, it is ideal to take one of them later in the draft, especially considering Moore could end up as the third most productive player on his team. It’s a risky early-round draft pick that can be used on far more surefire picks like Kenneth Walker III (ADP 47.8)
Stefon Diggs (WR, HOU), ADP 47.7: If I could trust Stefon Diggs to stay out of Stefon Diggs’ way I would feel far more comfortable taking him here, but that coupled with the fact that he’s in a WR room that has Nico Collins and Tank Dell coming off breakout seasons and already having chemistry with CJ Stroud has me avoiding Diggs here at all costs. I truly think he will end up as the second or third most productive receiver in the room, which is reason enough to pass on him, but the chance that he won’t respond well to that development could harm the Texans offense even more and make him a wasted pick. I don’t see a world where Diggs reaches the highs of past seasons, as he’s never been a part of a WR room this talented and Stroud will throw it to whoever is open, whether their name is Diggs or not.
Players to Avoid Rounds 6-10
Zamir White (RB, OAK), ADP 73.2: Sometimes being the clear lead back just isn’t enough to justify a selection in the top half of a draft. Zamir White by way of opportunity projects to have a solid floor, but his ceiling is not much higher. In a paltry offense led by a receiver who demands to get the ball, White’s touches will consistently be put on the back burner. The Raiders could end up down early and often leading to a lot more passing plays, and Alexander Mattison has demonstrated an ability to be a good stopgap RB, so Zamir will have to take advantage of the touches he does get. There are other options with a lot less downside that you can take.
Brock Purdy (QB, SF), ADP 87.9: Good pocket passing QBs very rarely justify being picked over startable quality WRs or RBs. The upside for WRs and RBs is almost always higher than the QBs. Brock Purdy has had a couple of fantastic seasons with high TDs and few INTs, but the latter is due for some regression. Watching his games from last season, you could see that he got fairly lucky with a handful of surefire INTs just being dropped by DBs. On top of that, you have Trent Williams still holding out, which would negatively impact the entire offense if he remains off the field. Plus, injuries to Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall leave Purdy’s war chest looking pretty barren. At this point of the draft, players like Jayden Daniels are still available and he’ll give you points with his feet. Pass on Purdy in this range.
Zack Moss (RB, CIN), ADP 99.4: Projecting to be the Bengals’ RB1, Zack Moss has managers understandably intrigued. I just feel that there are way more worlds where you end up disappointed than not when it comes to drafting him. Coming off a breakout 750-yard season where he helped the Colts through Johnathon Taylor’s injury means that he needs to have a career year to justify a pick here. Facing stiff competition for touches by Chase Brown won’t help and even when he took over as the lead back last season he didn’t do much of anything in the passing game. There are not enough reasons for you to spend a top 100 pick on Zack Moss, if he falls to you in rounds 11 and on he becomes worthy of a flier.
Javonte Williams (RB, DEN), ADP 100.6: Williams was a rollercoaster last season, having a few weeks where he put up great numbers, but more often than not he was struggling to get anything going. The Broncos invested in RB by drafting Audric Estime and had Jaleel McLaughlin come on during the season last year. When Williams inevitably has a tough week or two Estime and McLaughlin will get their opportunities and if they make the most of it I would not be surprised to find Williams fighting for touches by Thanksgiving. The Broncos’ offense also projects to be an average to below-average offense that could find itself fighting from behind more often than not. I would avoid Williams and take Jaleel later in the draft.
Throw Your Darts Elsewhere Rounds 11+
Dameon Pierce (RB, HOU), ADP 128.6: Dameon Pierce is coming off a really bad season after having a bit of a breakout rookie campaign he hit the sophomore slump hard. Coming into this season the Texans have added Joe Mixon and Cam Akers has impressed during the preseason. Pierce has only averaged 1.1 YPC during the preseason, everything is pointing towards Pierce having an even worse season than last. His ADP is adjusted in Sleeper as he sits at 212.4 there, staying away from Pierce despite his ADP being the move.
Jahan Dotson (WR, PHI), ADP 129.2: A lot of the time when you get traded from a rebuilding team to a contending team your stock rises, this doesn’t fit that mold for me. Jayden Daniels has been having a stellar offseason and Dotson would have had a chunk of the target share there. Now he’s in Philadelphia as a clear number three, on an offense whose offensive line has taken a big hit and whose coaching situation is questionable at best. The Eagles seem like a good bet to be in flux early. I think the end of last season was very telling for this team and I believe they have gotten worse. There are way better late-round darts than Dotson.
Josh Downs (WR, IND), ADP 131.6: I am sprinting away from Colts WRs. I do not trust Anthony Richardson’s arm, I think Shane Steichen is going to run an offense that focuses on utilizing the run game and ARs legs specifically. Michael Pittman will get a massive chunk of the targets and TDs will be poached by Johnathon Taylor and AR. I just don’t see a road for Downs to become a reliable fantasy asset. You can avoid him with confidence.
Zach Charbonnet (RB, SEA), ADP 131.8: Charbonnet showed flashes of fantasy relevance last season, but this training camp and preseason Kenneth Walker III has made the gap between the two very clear. So not taking Charbonnet is less an indictment on him as a player and more just me buying that KWIII is going to finish as a top 5 RB this season. RB selection towards the end of a draft can be really difficult as the dropoff for quality and reliable RBs is quick and rampant, but when throwing darts I want to have a lot more upside beyond the starting RB getting injured. Find someone in more of a committee RB room rather than someone who is a clearcut backup.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)