Ryan Heath’s WR Rankings
- I’m taking a stance on Chris Godwin this week. He ranks 4th in OPPO per game over the last month. Only Tyreek Hill has more targets in that time. Godwin is significantly underperforming the OPPO model’s expectations for yards and touchdowns based on the opportunities he is seeing. Tom Brady has to throw some touchdowns eventually, right? Godwin has five red zone opportunities over the last month to Mike Evans‘ six.
- On the other end of the spectrum, JuJu Smith-Schuster has been remarkably efficient, overperforming the OPPO model by 9.2 points per game over his last three. JuJu has rarely been efficient in his career (including during his first month with Patrick Mahomes), so why expect it to continue now? Not much has changed with JuJu’s usage; he has seen an 18% target share this year, with his last three going 14.3%, 22.9%, and 19.4%. He also has not reached an average depth of target over 7.0 since Week 5.
- Gabriel Davis has underperformed OPPO by 2.6 points per game over his last three games, and holds just a 14.4% target share on the season. That target share was up at 28% (though only 7 targets) in Week 8, but back down to 15.2% in Week 9. Davis is a shaky fantasy option with boom potential based on a 17.1 average depth of target this year, but that all goes away if Josh Allen is missing or limited this week.
- Considering the circumstances, the data on Michael Pittman is about as encouraging as it could be. He is no longer a reliable top-24 option with Sam Ehlinger (who was sacked nine times last week!) under center, but he has posted 39% and 21% target shares in the two games since Ehlinger took over. He is still seeing targets in the same area of the field, but the Colts have fallen to a -4% pass rate over expected in the last two weeks, compared to 0% through the first seven. The coaching change could bring a philosophy change, but until we see it, Pittman is no more than a WR3.
Green=Strong Starter, Yellow=Solid Starter, Red=Look for Better Options