There are 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL, and in single-QB fantasy football leagues, only 10-12 of them are relied upon every week, meaning that basically two-thirds of the league’s starting quarterbacks are not worth rostering. So how do we identify the ones that are worth having in your starting lineup each week?
Let’s start with the obvious. They should be good at their job. Next, the more run-game volume they have, the better their potential for fantasy goodness. Again, I look to former QB List staffer Ryan Heath, now with Fantasy Points, to help me prove that rushing attempts are a great predictor of future fantasy value. That’s why guys like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson sit atop the fantasy rankings every year while statuesque pocket-passers like Jared Goff tend to see their name slip down rankings lists. I also like to look for guys under center who have aggressive play-callers and/or high-level skill players surrounding them. For example, it’s really difficult to get excited about someone like Shedeur Sanders – and not JUST because he’s on the Cleveland Browns. His team has question marks at wide receiver, and his play-caller (head coach Todd Monken) played at one of the slowest rates in the NFL last season (57.3 offensive plays per game was the fourth-fewest in the NFL).
So who CAN we look at to exceed expectations at the quarterback position in 2026? Here are four names that I think will make some noise this season and outperform their current fantasy football draft stock.
Patrick Mahomes, KC
ADP: 95.3, QB12
Life moves pretty fast. One minute, you’re sitting at the top of the fantasy football quarterback rankings with a no-doubt TE1, an emerging superstar or two at wide receiver, and one of the best offenses in the game at your disposal. The next, you’re sitting on the sideline with only six wins, a torn ACL, and you’re barely even being considered as a potential QB1 in fantasy drafts. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
He may not be able to claim himself as “Abe Frohman, Sausage King of Chicago,” but Patrick Mahomes ought to be able to eke out QB1 production in 2026. Over the first eight weeks of 2025, Mahomes ranked as THE QB1 in the NFL, averaging 25.0 fantasy points per game, including four games with three touchdown passes or more and four rushing scores sprinkled in. But beginning in Week 9, the Chiefs stopped being the Chiefs that we were so used to seeing for the past half-decade. Beginning with Buffalo in Week 9, teams began exposing Kansas City’s weaknesses on the offensive line, pinning back their ears to pressure the generational quarterback. The Chiefs have made adjustments on the O-Line entering 2026, including jettisoning tackle Jawaan Taylor into the sun (or just to free agency, where he was signed by Atlanta) and getting their 2025 first-round pick Josh Simmons back to health to begin the year after missing eight games last season.
The Chiefs also brought back offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, one of the offensive architects of the Chiefs’ dynasty days. In five seasons as the Chiefs’ offensive coordinator (2018-2022), Bieniemy led this offense to top-six finishes in total yards and points scored in each season, ranking top five in passing yards in all five seasons as well. Man, that sounds like a nice reunion for Mahomes, doesn’t it? Currently being drafted as the QB12, there’s legitimate potential for Mahomes to regain his dominance of the league and thrust himself back into the conversation for QB1 overall. Granted, he may begin the season on the PUP list and miss the first four weeks of the year, so it might be worth grabbing a cheap second quarterback late in drafts, but Mahomes could absolutely lead fantasy teams to the promised land whenever he does come back.
Baker Mayfield, TB
ADP: 125.7, QB19
Last year was not very much fun for Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Injuries were everywhere – the offensive line, the wide receiver corps, the running back room, and even Mayfield himself played hurt most of the year. He suffered injuries as early as Week 2 of last season, but as he tends to do, he played through the pain, much to the chagrin of fantasy managers who drafted him as high as QB5 heading into last year. It had a massive effect on his play, rendering him practically unusable, as he finished the final seven weeks of the season with just one QB1 start, finishing as QB12 in Week 17.
Flash forward to the 2026 preseason: Mayfield has had an entire offseason to heal up and looks fresh and ready to roll. Currently in contract negotiations, unless something is resolved in the near future, 2026 will be a “contract year” for Baker, something that some fantasy managers believe could impact performance and motivation. Commanding the Tampa Bay offense, Mayfield is surrounded by outstanding play-makers. Despite the loss of an aging Mike Evans, Mayfield still has Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, Bucky Irving, and the newly-added Kenneth Gainwell flanking him in what could be a potent attack. Former Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has taken over the play-calling duties and promises to bring a McVay-inspired scheme with him.
Currently being drafted as QB19, I see Mayfield as a potential top-10 quarterback. He ranked eighth in quarterback rushing yards in 2025 and adds more rushing value than managers realize with his sneaky athleticism. We’ve seen what Mayfield can do when fully healthy, and only need to rewind to 2024 to see his ceiling (QB4, 22.5 fantasy points per game). My hope is that all it takes to get back to that level of production is some good health.
Tyler Shough, NO
ADP: 126.0, QB20
All aboard the Shough Truck, baby!
Tyler Shough finished 2025 with four QB1 performances over the final six weeks, finishing as high as QB4 during that stretch. He tallied 250 or more passing yards in each of the final four games of the regular season, and threw for five touchdowns while rushing for three touchdowns during that six-game span. He truly looked the part despite having Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson as his only true NFL-caliber offensive weapons. The rest of the Saints offense looked like the Island of Misfit Toys by that time last year, with Audric Estime and Devin Neal holding down the backfield and practice squad receivers like Kevin Austin Jr. and Samori Toure on the outside.
The Saints spent the offseason adding weapons for Shough, specifically signing Travis Etienne Jr. and drafting Jordyn Tyson (and my favorite deep sleeper tight end for dynasty leagues, Oscar Delp). With more weapons at Shough’s disposal, the offense should hum on all cylinders as head coach Kellen Moore continues to ratchet up the pace and be aggressive with his play calls. The Saints ranked 10th in the NFL in offensive plays per game, and ranked second in the NFL in offensive plays per home game.
Shough showed tremendous growth over the course of the season and by the end of the year looked like a legitimate NFL starting quarterback. If he takes another step forward this year with his upgraded weapons, one of the league’s most offensive-minded head coaches and a friendly home environment, he could easily finish as a top-12 quarterback in fantasy.
Malik Willis, MIA
ADP: 135.8, QB21
On paper, the Miami Dolphins look like a dumpster fire – a team that appears to have little to no intention of winning a football game based on the roster construction. The wide receiver room is bare, the offensive line is in shambles, and yet they went on and spent franchise-quarterback money on Malik Willis. If there was ever a situation for a 2026 quarterback to take over Jacoby Brissett‘s mantle as the “King of Trash Time,” it could be Willis with the Dolphins.
In a minuscule two-game sample size, Willis looked absolutely masterful running Green Bay’s offense against the Chicago Bears and Baltimore Ravens at the tail end of 2026. He finished 27-for-32 (84.4%) for 409 and two touchdowns through the air and added 19 carries for 104 yards and two scores with his legs. Do we dare EXTRAPOLATE THAT TO A WHOLE SEASON? Absolutely not. But I do think that he could lead the league in quarterback rushing yards.
In each of the past four seasons, the NFL leader in quarterback rushing yards has finished as a top-six fantasy quarterback. Yeah, but three of those years it was done by Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Okay fine, but who did it in 2022? That’s right, Justin Fields. You don’t need elite arm talent to be a top-12 quarterback if you lead the league in rushing, though I truly believe Willis is better than Fields ever was or will be in that category. Even if he’s just mediocre and hits the 2025 NFL median numbers for passing yards (3,200) and passing touchdowns (22), his rushing upside should catapult him into the top-12 over the course of the season with potential for slate-breaking weeks sprinkled in.
(Photo by Derick Hingle/Icon Sportswire) | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)