Kickoff: Sunday, December 20th at 1:00 PM ET
Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Betting Odds: CHI +3, 46 total via Oddsshark
Mitchell Trubisky (Sit, QB2)
Last week, Mitchell Trubisky had his best fantasy performance since Week 1 with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Trubisky did well against the Texans, but this week’s match-up will be tougher against the Vikings. Mitchell has been too inconsistent to fully trust in fantasy lineups, especially in the middle of the playoffs. He should be a serviceable QB2 this week but probably won’t single-handedly win any fantasy match-ups this week.
David Montgomery (Start, Low-end RB1)
David Montgomery has been on another level lately. He’s been an RB1 for three straight weeks and has scored three touchdowns over that span. The Vikings have been mediocre against fantasy running backs this year and allowing plenty of ground yards per game, so Montgomery should have plenty of opportunities for yet another impressive performance this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Allen Robinson II (Start, Low-end WR1), Anthony Miller (Sit), Darnell Mooney (Sit), Cole Kmet (Sit), Jimmy Graham (Sit)
Allen Robinson II is probably the only Bears receiver worth trusting this week. Robinson is averaging 22.7 fantasy points per game over the past three weeks and has three touchdowns over that same span. The Vikings have allowed the seventh-most passing yards and sixth-most fantasy points to receivers this year, so Robinson should have plenty to work with this week.
With only two double-digit fantasy performances over his last ten games, Anthony Miller doesn’t seem to be worth the risk on most fantasy lineups. He hasn’t found the end zone since Week 3. Similarly, Darnell Mooney only has three double-digit fantasy performances all season. Both of these guys are too inconsistent to trust, especially in the middle of fantasy playoffs.
Rookie Cole Kmet has earned more work lately with seven targets in each of his last two games. Unfortunately, he isn’t quite fantasy-relevant yet, so he’s mostly just eating into Jimmy Graham’s production. Graham isn’t trustworthy in fantasy lineups as he’s been too touchdown-dependent this year. All four of his double-digit fantasy performances this year required a trip to the end zone. I wouldn’t trust either of these guys in the fantasy playoffs.
Kirk Cousins (Sit, QB2)
With the eleventh-fewest fantasy points allowed to QB’s, the Bears’ defense has been capable against quarterbacks this year. Kirk Cousins was playing well for three straight weeks until the Buccaneers slowed him down in Week 14. Still, the Bears are in the must-win territory, and they won’t go down without a fight this week. Cousins’ low ceiling this week will make him tough to trust in fantasy playoff match-ups.
Dalvin Cook (Start, RB1)
Dalvin Cook is having an impressive season and is pretty much match-up proof at this point. That’s good because the Bears have been pretty good against the run this year. Chicago is allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this year. Still, with more than 100 rushing yards in each of his last two games, Cook has been playing very well lately. The Bears are pretty mediocre in rushing yards allowed this year, so there should be enough opportunities for Dalvin this week. He should be capable of another RB1 performance this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Adam Thielen (Start, High-end WR2), Justin Jefferson (Start, High-end WR2), Irv Smith Jr. (Sit, TE2), Tyler Conklin (Sit), Kyle Rudolph (Sit)
Although he’s the overall WR11 on the season, Adam Thielen has been pretty boom-or-bust this year. He only has two fantasy performances between 10 and 20 points but has four weeks of single-digit totals and six weeks with 20+ points. The match-up isn’t great this week, but Thielen is such an integral part of the Vikings’ passing attack that he should still return high-end WR2 value this week. Adam already put up 20 fantasy points against the Bears this year.
Justin Jefferson had four weeks of impressive fantasy production but was pretty quiet last week while the Vikings passing attack struggled. The match-up isn’t great, but the Vikings have been feeding Jefferson some consistent targets lately, so Justin should see enough volume for an impressive fantasy performance.
Kyle Rudolph was inactive last week with a foot injury, breaking a 98-game start streak. Rudolph suffered his foot injury on December 6th against the Jaguars, so it seems he was trying to play through the pain for a while. If Rudolph is active this week, it likely won’t matter much anyway. He wasn’t very fantasy-relevant this year either.
Irv Smith Jr. returned just in time to fill in for Rudolph last week and even caught a touchdown on his way to a TE1 finish. Smith could be a sneaky play this week, but his production will be unreliable (like most tight ends). Irv could easily see his fantasy ceiling capped by fellow tight end Tyler Conklin, who was plenty involved last week (five targets). That said, the Bears are allowing the third-most fantasy points to tight ends this year, so it feels like this week could go either way for Smith. I wouldn’t want to rely on Smith in round two of the fantasy playoffs, but you could certainly do worse.
-Ryan Kruse (@ryanpkruse on Twitter)