Kickoff: Sunday, December 27th, at 8:20 PM EST
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Betting Odds: TEN +3.5, 56 total via Oddsshark
Network: NBC & ESPN
Ryan Tannehill (Start, QB1)
Ryan Tannehill had himself a Week 15. He was as efficient as ever in the rout against Detroit, going 21 of 27 for 273 yards and three touchdowns through the air, with two more on the ground. He’s now set a career-high in passing scores with 31 and remains a QB1 in a pivotal prime-time game against a Packers defense that has allowed the eighth fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position this season.
Derrick Henry (Start, RB1)
Leading the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, Derrick Henry could potentially amass 2,000 yards on the ground this year. The road to that total beings Sunday night against a Packers defense that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs on the season. Even without consistent work in the passing game, he’s as locked in an RB1 as they come, this season and onward.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
A.J. Brown (Start, WR1), Corey Davis (Start, WR2), Jonnu Smith (Start, TE2)
In what should be a high scoring affair, A.J. Brown remains to be an upside WR1 against Green Bay, but you’ll hope for his yardage totals to be on the higher side when targeted. Last week against the Lions, his fantasy day was saved with a late touchdown, as he only had 44 yards on five receptions and six targets. With a strong day, he could amass a 1,000 receiving yard season. Corey Davis has been one of the biggest surprises of the fantasy season, and he’s having a career year that frankly no one anticipated. On the same six targets that Brown saw last week, Davis turned four receptions into 110 yards and a touchdown. He could have had a second score if it wasn’t for a bad miss by Tannehill. You can confidently start him in this Championship week as a WR3 with WR2 upside. This Titans offense is potent and should hold their own against a Packers defense that has given up the eighth fewest fantasy points to wide receivers on the year.
Tight end Jonnu Smith remains a viable streamer at his position, but truly is touchdown-dependent every week. The Packers are strong against the tight end, as they’ve only allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers (Start, QB1)
For most quarterbacks, a two-touchdown day (one through the air and another on the ground) is solid. For Aaron Rodgers, potentially this year’s MVP, it was a down week. Rodgers posted his lowest fantasy numbers since Week 6, and even then, it was a 21 point performance; of course dependent on league settings. He’s a no-brainer QB1 this week in prime time against a Titans defense that is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the year, and an average 276.0 yards per game through the air.
Aaron Jones (Start, RB1), Jamaal Williams (Sit), AJ Dillion (Sit)
Back in the scoring column last week against Carolina, Aaron Jones remains a firm RB1 against a Titan defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to his position. Jones benefited even more so last week when Jamaal Williams exited the game with a quad injury. Volume is king in fantasy, and if Williams misses the game this week – he did not practice on Tuesday – Jones will take on the majority of the touches. Rookie AJ Dillion would slide into Williams’ role, but he’s not a fantasy fill-in.
Wide Receivers/Tight End
Davante Adams (Start, WR1), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Sit), Allen Lazard (Sit), Robert Tonyan (Start, TE1)
The only Green Bay receiver you can trust in the Championship game is Davante Adams, who ironically burned many fantasy players last week with a rare, down performance. On 10 targets, he hauled in seven receptions for just 42 yards and no touchdowns. There’s no doubt he can bounce back against a Tennessee defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers this year. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard are next in line for targets, but don’t do much with their share and remain out of your lineups this week.
Tight end Robert Tonyan, Pro Bowl snub, has posted double-digit fantasy points every week since Week 11 against the Colts, with a score in each of those games. When you have Rodgers’ trust, you are always at the front of the line for a fair share of his pass attempts. Since Week 11, Tonyan has at least five targets per, with the exception being last week against Carolina where he had three. Even then, he caught them all for 18 yards and a touchdown. This late in the fantasy season, if you’re playing for gold, you’ll continue to deploy Tonyan with confidence.
-Matthew Cava (@cavaM_ Twitter & Reddit)