Sit/Start Week 16: Reviewing All the Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Bills@Patriots

 

Game Info

Kickoff: Saturday, December 21st at 4:30 PM EST

Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

Betting Odds: NE -6.5, 37.5 total via Oddsshark

Network: CBS

Sleeper Spotlight: N’Keal Harry

 

Buffalo Bills

 

Quarterback:

• Josh Allen (Sit)

 

The Patriots have given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season by a pretty significant margin – 9.3 fantasy points against per game, with the next best team (these Buffalo Bills) allowing 12.4 fantasy points against. This defense is stout and very tough to move the ball against.

 

In their last matchup, Josh Allen went 13/28 for 153 yards and 3 interceptions and I would expect a pretty similar line this week. It is likely the Patriots will be without their stud slot corner Jonathan Jones and that could lead to some extra looks over the middle to Cole Beasley, but it’s still very difficult to recommend any QB against this New England Defense. Look elsewhere this week.

 

Running Backs:

• Devin Singletary (FLEX)
• Frank Gore (Sit)

 

As I wrote for last week’s Patriots/Bengals game, New England has been vulnerable against the run this year. They gave up 136 yards on the ground to Joe Mixon last week when they knew Andy Dalton had no chance of beating them through the air. Josh Allen is a much more competent quarterback at this point and they’ll need to focus a bit more on him than they did on Dalton, which may lead to a few more lanes opening up for Singletary. I would still temper expectations and would not predict another Mixon-type effort, but I could see 85 yards and a touchdown out of Singletary. Consider him a flex option with some RB2 upside.

 

Wide Receivers/Tight End:

• John Brown (Sit)
• Cole Beasley (Sit/Flex)

 

Stephon Gilmore is the best cornerback in the league right now and it’s not even close. John Brown has been great this year but his ship is about to sink and get washed up on Gilmore island. Gilmore is best in primetime games when all eyes are on the Patriots, and while this isn’t technically a primetime game with a 1 pm kickoff it will be the only game on, so all eyes will be on Gilmore. Expect more of the same for the future defensive player of the year and sit John Brown.

 

As I mentioned under Allen’s blub, Jonathan Jones is injured and will likely be out this week. It’s a situation worth monitoring but it’s significant in that Jones has been one of the best slot corners in the NFL this year. He’s fast and aggressive which has given slot receivers trouble all season. His absence would leave a glaring hole across the middle, requiring focus from the linebackers that would have otherwise gone to either Singletary or another receiver. Thankfully for the Patriots, the Bills don’t have anyone outside of Brown or Cole Beasley who should threaten them on the outside, so moving Jason McCourty over to the slot shouldn’t be an issue. McCourty isn’t as fast as Jones is however so Beasley could get a few more chances than he otherwise would have. I would still recommend sitting Beasley but could see him with 6-8 catches which would be useful in a flex spot.

 

New England Patriots

 

Quarterback:

• Tom Brady (Sit)

 

Last week was another poor outing for Brady which must be tearing him apart inside. This is the guy who is used to 4500+ passing yards and 40+ touchdowns year in and year out. His ineffectiveness is largely due to his struggling offensive line, though they did look better last week (specifically Shaq Mason). Brady’s ailing elbow is getting better, though coach Bill Belichick did mention (somewhat out of character) this week that Brady has missed more practice time than normal. There is tension in the air between Bill and Brady, which in past years would have led to fire-eyed Tom throwing 4 TDs in an absolute bloodbath of a game for whatever opponent he faced, but Tom simply does not have the weapons this year to do that. Sit Brady this week.

 

Running Backs:

• Sony Michel (Sit)
• James White (Sit/Flex)
• Rex Burkhead (Sit)

 

Sony Michel finally did something last week, with 89 yards on 19 carries. He also dropped a surefire touchdown pass. The throw WAS low, but Sony has zero pass-catching abilities and looked completely inept trying to catch the pass. Despite his decent showing last week I’m still out on Michel against a pretty good Bills run defense allowing only 17.3 fantasy points per game against.

 

James White had two long catches last week and one went for a touchdown, totaling 15.2 fantasy points on the day. This is about what you’re looking for out of an RB3/Flex and he is capable of that again this week, however, with the matchup against the Bills, I would steer clear of White if you have other options. Rex Burkhead again looked good on the ground last week including a touchdown but he’s not getting enough snaps to warrant a start in championship week. MAYBE as a cheap flex DFS if you want to spend up elsewhere, but I don’t like the matchup nearly as much as I did last week.

 

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends:

• Julian Edelman (Sit)
• Mohamed Sanu (Sit)
• N’Keal Harry (Sleeper)

 

Julian Edelman has been hurting all year, but this time it’s really serious. According to multiple reports, he has a patellar tendon injury that could potentially be severe if he doesn’t manage it for the rest of the season. He was hobbled on in Cincinnati on Sunday and the injury will not be healed before Saturday. For more info on the specifics, check out this post by sports medicine physician Dr. Jessica Flynn on Boston Sports Journal, who is much more qualified to talk about the human body than I am. Even if Edelman plays he is a shell of himself at this point and it will only get worse the longer the season drags on for this depleted New England team. I hate to say it but it’s time to drop Edelman.

 

With a hobbled Edelman on the field, Mohamed Sanu has targeted a team-high 8 times on Sunday but only hauled in two catches for 13 yards. I would expect the targets to be around the same this week but my guess is the Bills will put their star cornerback Tre’Davious White on Sanu rather than wasting him on 60% of Julian Edelman. I would not want my championship hopes resting on Sanu this week.

 

As predicted, N’Keal Harry finally got more touches last week and even scored a touchdown. His 11.7 points weren’t enough to be Flex worthy but he could have a similar game this week. I would look elsewhere if you can but in a pinch, Harry could be a decent fill in.

-Ben Brown (@FelixTheDog23 Twitter, iamatechnician Reddit)