Kickoff: Sunday, January 9, 2022
Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
Betting Odds: JAX +16, 44.5 Total on Vegas Insider
Carson Wentz (Sit, QB2)
Over his past four games, Carson Wentz didn’t eclipse 30 pass attempts once. With this expected to be a leading game script, it’s unlikely we see that here. Thus, Wentz will be reliant on touchdowns, which can happen – the Jaguars have allowed a top-six quarterback in back-to-back weeks – but it’s a risk you probably should not take.
Jonathan Taylor (Start, THE RB1)
Quietly, Jonathan Taylor hasn’t finished as an RB1 in back-to-back weeks. However, that was mainly due to game script; the Colts were games where they had to pass more often. With a 16-point spread, Taylor should get back to feasting as the overall RB1. Between Weeks 5 and 15, Taylor averaged 27.04 points per game, and finished as a RB1 in all ten of those games. That is simply absurd. Expect great things from Taylor against the Jaguars in Week 18.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Michael Pittman Jr. (Start, High-End WR3, FLEX), TY Hilton (Sit), Zach Pascal (Sit), Jack Doyle (Sit), Mo Alie-Cox (Sit)
In a different world, Michael Pittman Jr., who has a 79.6 PFF receiving grade and 1.96 yards/route run this season, would be a consistent top-15 option. Instead, we’re left with Pittman Jr. being closer to a WR3 this year. Pittman has only finished in the top-20 twice in the past seven weeks, while he has just one end-zone target in that span. In what should be a game with limited passing volume, I’d avoid this passing attack.
Trevor Lawrence (Sit)
Did you know that Trevor Lawrence hasn’t finished as a QB1 since Week 5? Meanwhile, he’s thrown two touchdowns passes since Week 12. The Jaguars are averaging the fewest points per game (14.2) by a notable margin, and Lawrence’s season numbers are alarmingly poor:
- 55.2 PFF passing grade
- 6 yards/pass attempt
- 10 touchdowns (3.3% big-time throw rate)
- 17 interceptions (3.9% turnover-worthy play rate)
Please do not start Lawrence in Week 18 if you have any other viable option.
Dare Ogunbowale (Sit, RB3)
With James Robinson tearing his achilles, it was unclear how the Jaguars would approach their backfield. Last week, Dare Ogunbowale took the lead with a 64.5% snap rate, as well as a 74% routes run rate. He’s a desperate FLEX play, but do you really want to start the running back for the least effective offense when he isn’t the undisputed workhorse back? Don’t let his late receiving touchdown fool you; there aren’t many opportunities to shine in Jacksonville.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Marvin Jones Jr. (Sit, Low-End WR4), Laquon Treadwell (Sit, Low-End WR4), Laviska Shenault Jr. (Sit), James O’Shaughnessy (Sit, Low-End TE2)
Sticking with the overall theme here, the Jaguars’ passing attack isn’t one to cater to. They are only implied to score 14 points as a team this week, and they’ve had a WR2 finish from one of their receivers just twice in the past two months. Marvin Jones Jr. and Laquon Treadwell each will lead to target share, but with little upside present, I’d avoid this situation completely.
All Stats via Pro Football Focus