Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, September 17th, at 1:00PM EST
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Betting Odds: TB -3 O/U 41.5 Total via PFF.com
Network: Fox
Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)
Chicago Bears
Quarterback
Justin Fields (Start, QB1)
His 2023 debut was a bit less than ideal, fantasy-wise, but let’s not get too panicked about Justin Fields’ fantasy value after that debut. Truth: the offensive line is a collection of turnstiles – there probably won’t be a quick fix. Truth 2: the Chicago playcalling needs a bit of improvement. Truth 3: That was a Packers/Bears game, and those are always hard to judge. His abysmal QBR rating (21.6) really doesn’t tell the whole story, and his 64.9% completion percentage was nearly 10 points higher than his opponent, Jordan Love. What we truly saw last week was an improving Fields, as he showed more confidence and better decision-making while still playing an entire game with his head on a swivel to avoid ‘being murdered’. Honestly, he broke out of the pocket to get it done himself a lot less frequently than I expected – I’d even say less than the Bears needed him to. The late-game pick by Quay Walker was a terrible choice but came in the ‘just trying to make ANYTHING happen’ portion of the game, which as a long-time watcher of Favre-era Packers, is something I tend to understand and forgive. As Chicago gets DJ more involved in their script and scheming, I would look for Fields to improve on his passing numbers as they figure out how to incorporate more Moore, but working with three solid receiving options in the top two and Kmet, plus Herbert showing skills as a screen weapon, he’s finally got multiple quality options to work with, and 59 rushing yards last week makes him remain their most effective running option.
Running Backs
Khalil Herbert (Start, Flex), D’Onta Foreman (Sit), Rochon Johnson (Sit, Flex)
There wasn’t a lot of success on the ground last week – again, not to keep beating the dead horse with a stick but that O-line play makes a man day drink. As such, there wasn’t much from a running game perspective to love. Khalil Herbert did show up in the passing game, however, as did Rochon Johnson. The Bears split field time pretty evenly between all three backs, and once again Justin Fields was the clear winner in efficiency with his scrambling. All in all, I don’t know what to think of this RB room – I thought Herbert had it locked down, but he was the least efficient on the ground (3 ypc, vs. 3.2 for D’onta and 4 for Roschson). As Chicago looks to turn the momentum quickly, we might start seeing a hot-hand committee, but it’s way too early to tell. D’onta Foreman showed the least spark and may end up the odd man out once the Bears start sharpening this offense, assuming that’s something they plan to do this year. For this Tampa Bay game, I give Khalil another week in the Flex spot based on his success in the receiving game in week one, but the development of Johnson could very well turn him into a terrific pickup down the line. His usage last week shows the Bears have plans for him, so stash him in the meantime.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DJ Moore (Start, WR2), Darnell Mooney (Start, Flex), Chase Claypool (Cut), Cole Kmet (Start, TE1)
Let’s start in reverse order: Cole Kmet tied the team lead for targets with seven and brought in five of them. While big yards (and scores) weren’t there this first week, the heavy usage will continue as he’s a critical warm blanket for Fields as he develops. End zone trips are coming, just stay the course with him this week. Chase Claypool does not appear to care even a little bit about football. The effort and attitude just aren’t there, and I wouldn’t have him on a roster. His time on the Bears should be limited in a just world – I wouldn’t be surprised to see more Tyler Scott or even Equanimeous out there moving forward – raw talent doesn’t make up for coming to your job with your head up your can every day. What I did find to be a promising development is the comfort level Fields has clearly developed with Darnell Mooney. While not knock-it-out-of-the-park numbers (4 grabs on 7 targets, 53 yards, and a score), it’s more than a solid start. They look to be aligning well, which may set up Mooney for WR2 numbers more consistently as they work out the kinks. With a decent matchup – Jamel Dean should be tied up with DJ – I love Darnell as a flex or even WR3 this week. Finally, we come to DJ Moore – he’s clearly the most talented receiver Chicago has out there, so it’s befuddling that he only got 2 looks in a rivalry game that the Bears should have been gunning on all cylinders for; I trust that OC Luke Getsy will not repeat that mistake and get their blue chipper into the gameplan this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield (Start, QB2 in SuperFlex)
As far as re-debuts/making an impression on your fresh start team goes, week one was very Baker Mayfieldy. He overcame a bumpy first half to lead this squad to an upset win against the defending NFC North champs. His 21 of 34 passing for 173 yards and 2 TDs is about as solidly Baker-of-a-game as we’re going to get. Still, if there’s a week that shapes up to provide him with an opportunity to create a high water mark/Please-Don’t-Think-About-Giving-KYLE-a-Run-Until-At-Least-Week-Nine reel, this is that chance served up on an orange and blue platter. In no way shape or form – barring ‘I had both Rodgers/Tannehill/sitting-on-Kyler-Murray’ combo, which I’ve witnessed personally – are you going to be starting Baker this soon in the season, if he’s even on your roster. But in a SuperFlex league, I like him a lot for your second slot – Mayfield should have plenty of shots to load up his big two, and that will get you above-average numbers in that slot.
Running Backs
Rachaad White (Sit, Flex), Sean Tucker (Sit)
A low-octane O-line and general lack of performance brought some early buyer’s remorse for the Rachaad White believers out here. His 17 attempts for 39 yards, no scores (and 10 more yards on 2 receptions) are professional back-up numbers. This week he’s got what should be an ideal bounce-back situation against this slapstick car crash of a defense…EXCEPT, that’s the same kind of ‘great matchup’ he had against the Vikings last week, with both squads ranked outside the top 20 on FantasyData.com, FantasyPros.com and pretty much everywhere else semi-reasonable people practice their football maths. Sure, on paper the Bears appear to be at least marginally worse than last week’s Vikings, but so too would I think that a skull fracture would be marginally worse than a broken neck. In a just and fair world, we don’t have to test out this theory, so do not give into the lure of being a guinea pig for science here. We wish all our fantasy friends the best, and maybe the Bucs figure out a way in one week to create ‘just one hole for Rachaad to run through’, but if we see back-to-back terrifying performances from Tampa Bay/Rachaad, the rest of the year portends to be harrowing. White may well end up at the top of your ‘I’ve Made Some Mistakes’ list. Despite this inefficiency, the Buccaneers did not turn to backup Sean Tucker for anything other than give-him-a-breather help, and neither should you.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Mike Evans (Start, WR2), Chris Godwin (Start, WR2 ), Trey Palmer (Sit), Cade Otton (Sit/Cut)
One of the better 1-2 punches in the league receiving-wise, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are must-plays this week against this Bears D that gave up 245 yards to the debuting Jordan Love and his receiving crew with a combined 11 years of experience amongst all players who made a catch (and that number drops to five years without Aaron Jones); it should have been even more had Love been more finely tuned. The point is that Evans and Godwin this week will provide plenty of juicy opportunities: this Chicago group in its current state is a giant dumpster of loaded diapers situated in the middle of a colossal tire fire. I can’t push either into the WR1 zone, simply because the targeting and production splits should break fairly even week to week. Regarding Trey Palmer, it was great to see the rookie get into the stat sheet with his first touchdown, and he is certainly a dynasty league pickup and possibly even a stowaway in a 14-team league or if you’ve got a real deep bench. For the immediate future, though, he’s not seeing your field. I will repeat my opinion from last week regarding Cade ‘I was named by the WWE’ Otton – you should not have him on a roster. Just the most boring, unexciting TE in a league that still employs Austin Hooper and Jonnu Smith. Otton was on the field for 97% of the Buccaneers offensive plays last week, and from that massive amount of field, rolled out of Sunday with 2 receptions on 3 targets for 19 yards. Stop making your parents sad, Cade.
Rams secondary “got worked” by Seattle? Did you even look at the boxscore or watch the game??? What kind of ignorant comment is that? Geno Smith was 16-26 for 112 yards. Rams held Metcalf to 47 yards. Lockett had 10 yards. Will Dissly was the 2nd leading receiver with 17 yards. Is that being “worked”. Not a very impressive write-up. Do better. At least look at the stats before you make an uninformed comment. Not a good look.
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