Kickoff: Monday, September 28th at 8:15 PM ET
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Betting Odds: BAL -2, 52.5 total via Oddsshark
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes (Start, QB1)
Patrick Mahomes dropped 30 fantasy points last week and yet it feels like he is just warming up. Mahomes has been more conservative than we are used to, perhaps because of a revamped rushing attack. With an average depth of target (ADOT) of just 6.9 yards, Mahomes is ranked 27th. This game is likely to be high scoring and look for the Chiefs to test this secondary down the field. Mahomes is in for a big game.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Start, RB2)
Stick with Clyde Edwards-Helaire this week but lower your expectations against this stingy Ravens defense. Last week CEH’s disappointing performance had more to do with the game script than anything else; the team got behind quickly and Mahomes threw the ball 47 times. Still, CEH managed double-digit fantasy points and salvaged his day. He has been on the field for 65% of the team’s snaps and he earned targets in the passing game last week. Both of these trends are promising for the lead-back that he is. CEH is an auto-start this week, even in a tough matchup.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Tyreek Hill (Start, WR1), Sammy Watkins (Sit), Travis Kelce (Start, TE1)
If the Chiefs want to control this game they may need to begin targetting their dynamic playmaker Tyreek Hill down the field. So far the Chiefs have wanted to play conservatively but that could change if they want to make a statement this week. Look for Hill to have an explosive game this week.
After a questionable helmet-to-helmet hit, Sammy Watkins has avoided the concussion protocol and he tweeted that he’s fine and ready for Week 3. Watkins is hard to figure out and even harder to trust in our lineups. He exploded in Week 1 for the second straight season, only to disappoint in Week 2. Will the real Watkins please stand up? For now, look for a better option in your flex, especially in this tough matchup.
Death, taxes, and Travis Kelce. Those are the three things in life that are certain. Kelce is matchup proof and he has returned TE1 value to managers in 85% of games with Mahomes. He’s as close to an auto-start as there is, and be sure you are not rostering a backup until his bye in Week 10.
Lamar Jackson (Start, QB1)
Lamar Jackson came down to earth last week; he finished as a fantasy QB2 for just the third time in his last 17 regular season starts. This week, however, Baltimore’s implied total is creeping close to 30 points which means great things for our fantasy lineups. Expect Jackson to take deep shots against this aggressive Chiefs defense and a high rushing upside. Jackson is a top-three option this week.
Mark Ingram (Start, Flex), J.K. Dobbins (Start, Flex)
The Ravens’ backfield can be described perfectly with the term running back by committee. Coaches call Mark Ingram is the “lead-back” but, in reality, the team snaps have been split between Ingram (38%), rookie J.K. Dobbins (34%), and Gus Edwards (28%). With Ingram in the lead role, you would expect him to get the lion’s share of the carries but so far he is only getting 10-12 opportunities per game. FOr the dynamic young Dobbins opportunities are even more scarce. Eventually, this backfield will work itself out, either by injury or performance but at this point, this backfield will be difficult to forecast. Both Ingram and Dobbins can be put in the Flex spot this week in what should be a high scoring competitive game.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Marquise Brown (Start, WR2), Miles Boykin (Sit), Willie Snead (Sit), Mark Andrews (Start, TE1)
The Ravens passing attack is not high volume and tough to project. Marquise Brown leads the team in targets with 13 in two games, and that maybe all of the volume we can expect. Brown however is a dynamic playmaker who can win your weekly matchup singlehandedly. Find a way to keep him in your lineup. Outside of Brown, however, these receivers are to be avoided. The Ravens target the receiver position less than any team in the league which makes Miles Boykin and Willie Snead touchdown dependant.
Mark Andrews is a low-end TE1 this week but don’t be surprised if he struggles against the Chiefs. Last week the Cheifs used safety Tyrann Mathieu in a hybrid role and he was not matched up often with Hunter Henry in coverage. Henry had a nice game with six catches for 83 yards. If KC decides to Mathieu as a weapon again this week then Andrews could feast. However, should the Chiefs decide to line Mathieu in coverage against Andrews, such as they did last season, Andrews could be in for a long day. In a 2019 matchup, Andrews only managed three catches for 15 yards. Andrews is talented and should be started without hesitation but if he disappoints we may already know why.
-Marc Salazar (@dingwog on Twitter)