Sit/Start Week 3: Reviewing All the Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Lions at Eagles

 

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, September 22nd at 1:00 pm EST

Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

Betting Odds: PHI -6.5, 46.5 Total via Oddsshark

Network: FOX

Sleeper Spotlight: J.J. Arcega-Whiteside

 

Detroit Lions

 

Quarterback

• Matthew Stafford (Start/QB1)

 

Matthew Stafford has quietly had a strong start to the season. He torched the Cardinals in week one and had a solid game last week against a strong Chargers defense. When I started digging into the numbers to write this game, I was pretty impressed with Stafford’s start. Stafford is fourth in both average air yards per completion (8) and average intended air yards per pass (10) per NextGenStats. Stafford is also second at attempting passes at or to the first down line, averaging 2.1 yards past the line also per NextGenStats. Most analysts anticipated that new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell would be extremely run-heavy and put a cap on Stafford and the rest of the Lions’ passing weapons’ ceilings. I was optimistic due to Bevell’s preference to push the ball downfield with both Brett Favre in Minnesota and Russell Wilson in Seattle. Stafford’s best ability was always his arm strength. Bevell is letting him loose again after Jim Bob Cooter tried making Stafford something he’s not. Throwing downfield usually means a worse completion percentage, but Stafford is seventh in the NFL in Completion Percentage Above Expectation. Stafford has been playing extremely well and I think this is going to continue this week. The Eagles’ pass defense has been spotty. They are 11th worst in yards per attempt given up. Terry McLaurin in week one and both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley in week two have been able to feast. Stafford is going to dial up some deep shots this week. 

 

Running Backs

• Kerryon Johnson (Start/RB2)
• Ty Johnson (Sit)

 

Kerryon Johnson started getting tons of hype during the draft season once Theo Riddick was released. This was because most believed that Kerryon would be taking over the pass game work, which would help him maintain his floor even with the addition of C.J. Anderson. So far this year though, the Lions haven’t given it all to Kerryon. Last week, Kerryon was on the field for 54% of the Lions’ offensive snaps, Anderson saw 20%, and Ty Johnson saw 21%. All of Ty’s snaps were in the passing game where he saw two targets compared to Kerryon’s three. For Kerryon to hit his ceiling, we need the Lions to either abandon Ty or for Kerryon to become more efficient. That is especially true if they intend to continue giving Anderson 66% of the red zone touches in the backfield. UPDATE: The Lions just cut Anderson, which allows Kerryon to take control of basically all the carries and goal-line work. Kerryon was able to turn one of his targets into a nice touchdown, but he hasn’t been able to break as many tackles so far as last year. The Lions’ line is generating 1.6 yards before Kerryon is touched, which is pretty average. Kerryon is going to need to do more on his own to make his touches count. The Eagles’ rush defense hasn’t been the disaster that the pass defense has been, but that might be due to the matchups. The Redskins lost Derrius Guice in their matchup with the Eagles and didn’t have another traditional RB available. The Falcons have struggled to run the ball in both their games. I still think Kerryon is a start with the Eagles defense struggling and the Lions may be playing from ahead in this game. Stafford can take advantage of this defense and the Eagles have a ton of injuries. Kerryon could also potentially be a buy-low option because he still clearly has the most talent in this backfield and the carries should correct itself (UPDATE: this might not be the case anymore with Anderson being released, Kerryon owners will likely try to stick with him, but you should try!). The other Johnson should not be started unless you are playing in deep leagues.

 

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

• Kenny Golladay (Start/high-end WR2)
• Marvin Jones (Start/Flex)
• Danny Amendola (Sit)
• T.J. Hockenson (Start/TE1)

 

Kenny Golladay is looking more and more like a number one receiver for the Lions. He has had nine and 10 targets in his first two games, respectively. Last week, Golladay totaled 148 air yards and has averaged 15.5 air yards per target. He has commanded 38% of the Lions’ total air yards which is 17th in the NFL, which is encouraging in an offense that has spread the ball around. Golladay is a locked and loaded WR2 this week going against a torch-able Philly defense. I am still debating calling him a WR1 for the week. Marvin Jones has also been used down the field, averaging 13.6 air yards per target. As I discussed with Stafford, the Lions are trying to push the ball and that is exactly the kind of offense we want in fantasy. Jones will likely see plenty of chances to make a big play with the Eagles focusing on Golladay. Calvin Ridley saw a similar opportunity last week and was able to capitalize. Jones is a solid Flex play this week. Danny Amendola only ran a route on 63% of the passing plays last week. As the only wide receiver or tight end in this offense not running routes downfield, Amendola needs to be out there on as many snaps as he can to stay fantasy relevant. Amendola will be Stafford’s check down option, but you can find better options on your teams to start.

 

14. J. Hockenson had an incredible week one on most people’s bench and then a dud once we tried starting him. Well, that’s the life of trying to find a TE option. So what now? I think this is another start week for Hockenson. He still ran routes on 70% of Stafford’s passes and ran twice as many routes as Jesse James did. He is averaging 14.5 air yards per target which is first for all TEs and is 25th for all pass catchers. Not only is he running the best type of routes for fantasy, but he is also averaging 7.8 YAC/reception. That is third for TEs (weirdly behind C.J. Uzomah and Jack Doyle of all people) and 13th in the NFL. He is just a straight bully and probably should have been higher on our boards entering the season. The rookie TE narrative has plenty of evidence but Hockenson has the pedigree of a player to break it. So, yes we should start Hockenson against an Eagles defense that let Vernon Davis take a 48-yard touchdown to the house and Austin Hooper to see targets.

 

Philadelphia Eagles

 

Quarterback

• Carson Wentz (Sit)

 

Carson Wentz is a good QB and will have another good season for fantasy, but this might not be the week to start him. DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, and Dallas Goedert are all likely to miss this week after suffering injuries against the Falcons. It’s tough to play a QB when two of his three top pass catchers are out. As talked about constantly in the fantasy community, QB is a deep position and if I had Wentz I would probably looking for a streaming option this week. The Lions have had an above-average pass defense so far this year, only allowing 6.7 yards per attempt. While they haven’t been able to get tons of pressure, the Eagles line has been susceptible all year and Wentz has been under duress. I think until one of Jackson or Alshon comes back, I’d look for a streaming option.

 

Running Backs

• Miles Sanders (Sit or Flex if necessary)
• Jordan Howard (Sit)
• Darren Sproles (Sit)

 

What a headache this backfield is going to be each week. Miles Sanders led the backfield with 43% of the snaps last Sunday night. Darren Sproles was on the field for 35% and then Jordan Howard for 22%. Finally, Sanders had four targets, Sproles had three, and Howard had one. That is the split of a true committee at RB, which is extremely disappointing. I was extremely high on Sanders (and still am), but he won’t be a productive player if the Eagles continue to use three backs. The Eagles may need to lean on the running game with all the injuries to the pass-catching group, which could mean good things for Sanders are coming. He is the most talented back and the Eagles know how to set RBs up for success. Sanders is seeing just 14.2% of his carries with eight or more men in the box. Sanders also has four out of five red-zone RB touches last week, which is very encouraging. Almost all of the Eagles’ beat reporter has predicted Sanders to eventually earn the lion share of the touches. While he is not there yet, there is hope. Howard continues to be a plodding runner that doesn’t add much to the offense. Sproles hasn’t looked the same in his old age, only totaling 21 yards on 5 catches. Sanders is the most explosive back on the team, the sooner the Eagles lean on him, the sooner the run game will pick up. The Lions run defense presents a solid opportunity to give him some more run. Sanders prefers bounce runs outside, which is where the Lions should be attacked. Run stuffing extraordinaire Damon Harrison plugs up the middle of the field and should be avoided at all costs. I ultimately have Sanders as a sit or Flex this week because we won’t know what his usage is going to be. The time is coming, but we will need to see it first before we can trust it.

 

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

• Alshon Jeffery (Injured)
• DeSean Jackson (Injured)
• Nelson Agholor (Start/Flex)
• J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (Sleeper)
• Zach Ertz (Start/TE1)

 

The game last Sunday night was a brutal one for Eagles pass catchers. Alshon Jeffery played six snaps and DeSean Jackson played 11 before they both left the game due to injury. Dallas Goedert, who was battling a calf injury throughout training camp, reaggravated the injury during warm-ups and didn’t play. All three are long shots to play this week against the Lions, which hurts the Eagles outlook. Nelson Agholor became the de facto number one receiver and played well, except for ya know dropping the would-be game-winner. He is at his best working out of the slot or attacking deep (12.3 air yards per target) and the Eagles will need to find his opportunities. Those will be hard to find with Darius Slay, one of the true shadow corners, likely following Agholor. This opens the door for rookie J.J. Arcega-Whiteside playing a prominent role this week. Arcega-Whiteside ended up playing 75 out of 81. He is my sleeper for this game and should see some targets.

 

Zach Ertz was pretty dependent on volume last season and there were worries that it wouldn’t be available this year. Week one played out that way as Ertz was held relatively quiet. Last week with all the injuries that changed and Ertz saw 16 targets. That train is going to keep on rolling if Jackson and Jeffrey are out. Don’t get cute and just start Ertz.

 

-Frank Costanzo (@FrankQBList)