Sit/Start Week 4: Reviewing All the Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, September 29th at 1:00 pm EST

Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI

Betting Odds: KC -6.5, 54 Total via Oddsshark

Network: FOX

Sleeper Spotlight: Ty Johnson

 

Kansas City Chiefs

 

Quarterback: 

• Patrick Mahomes (Start/QB1)

 

After his third consecutive game exceeding 370 yards and at least three touchdowns, Patrick Mahomes a sure thing in fantasy these days.  Mahomes will look to keep that streak alive against a Lions team that may be without top corner, Darrius Slay, who is nursing a hamstring. Per Jeff Risdon of USA Today, since Week 13 of the 2018 season, Slay has allowed just 10 completions of 38 passes thrown to receivers in his coverage. Vegas also has this game pegged at the highest total of the week at 54, with the Chiefs having an implied total of 29.75.

 

Running Backs:

• Damien Williams (If Playing, Start/RB2)
• LeSean McCoy (If Damien Out, Start/RB2)
• Darrel Williams (If Damien Out, Start/Flex)
• Darwin Thompson (Sit)

 

Sorry about the confusing “sit/start” designations above, but as of this writing, a lot is up in the air. Damien Williams was ruled out of Week 3 on Friday due to a knee contusion, indicating he wasn’t close to playing last week. LeSean McCoy left in the fourth quarter after re-tweaking his ankle, which led to Darrel Williams getting more work to finish the game. If Damien Williams is out and McCoy is in, I’d treat McCoy as an RB2/Flex play, but based on how well Darrel Williams played with McCoy out, I’d expect his role in the offense to increase, only if Damien is ruled out. If Damien and McCoy are both out, Darrel becomes an RB2 and Darwin Thompson becomes slightly interesting. However, it’s clear from last week’s usage that Thompson is fourth in the pecking order here. 

 

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends:

• Travis Kelce (Start/TE1)
• Sammy Watkins (Start/WR2)
• Mecole Hardman (Start/Flex)
• Demarcus Robinson (Start/Flex)
• De’Anthony Thomas (Sit)

 

Travis Kelce leads all tight ends in Air Yards and needs no writeup. If you drafted Kelce, you’re all set at the position. After back-to-back disappointing fantasy weeks, people may be down on Sammy Watkins. However, Watkins leads the Chiefs in Air Yards and Target Share (28%). In Week 3, he tied Kelce for a team-high eight targets, so stay strong with Watkins again this week. Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson have become Mahomes’ deep threats in Tyreek Hill’s absence. Over the first three weeks, they both have 12 targets, for a 10% target share while Robinson has the Air Yards advantage, leading Hardman 211 to 170. Robinson has been the more efficient of the two, catching 10 of his 12 targets. De’Anthony Thomas only has one target on the season and would need multiple injuries before becoming fantasy relevant. 

 

Detroit Lions

 

Quarterback:

• Matthew Stafford (Start/QB1)

 

The Lions have run the ball at the eighth-highest rate this year and have been clear about establishing the run. However, the Chiefs are 6.5 point road favorites, which means the Lions should be in catchup mode, thus activating Stafford Gun-Slinger Mode. I like Stafford as a backend QB1 this week and would start him over Carson Wentz and Tom Brady.

 

Running Backs:

• Kerryon Johnson (Start/RB2)
• Ty Johnson (Sit)
• J.D. McKissic (Sit)

 

Kerryon Johnson is the player from this game that I have the toughest time deciding what to do with. On one hand, the Lions want to run the ball and the Chiefs defense has allowed a league-high 6.2 yards per rush this year. However, the odds that the Lions defense keeps Mahomes off the scoreboard are not high and once the Lions enter catchup mode, how much work can we expect from Johnson? For the season, Johnson has just six targets, the same number of targets as J.D. McKissic and Ty Johnson combined. Johnson’s 6% market share is tied for 43rd among running backs. 

 

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends:

• Kenny Golladay (Start/WR2)
• Marvin Jones, Jr. (Start/Flex)
• T.J. Hockenson (Start/TE1)
• Danny Amendola (Sit/Deep Flex)
• Jesse James (Sit)

 

For all you worried Kenny Golladay owners out there, fear not, this is his bounce-back week. Golladay is tied for fifth in the league with 373 Air Yards and holds a 25% target share in this Lions offense. Marvin Jones saw nine targets in their Week 3 win over the Eagles, his largest workload so far this year. I view Jones as a high-end flex play and we’ll hopefully see his targets continue to be up near double-digits. T.J. Hockenson comes in as a back-end TE1. The Chiefs have been middle of the pack against tight ends this year, allowing 7.7 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Hockenson has also seen just seven targets over his last two weeks after receiving nine in Week 1. Once we get down to Danny Amendola is where I’m hemming and hawing over what to do. On one hand, this game should be high-scoring and high-flying, but on the other hand, most of his 18% target share can be chalked up to 13 targets received in Week 1 against the Cardinals. Since that matchup, he’s had just six targets in his last two games. Amendola is a sit for me unless you’re in a deeper league. 

-Rich Holman,(@nextdoorFFguru)