Sit/Start Week 4: Reviewing All the Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, September 29th at 1:00 pm EST

Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD

Betting Odds: BAL -7, 46 Total via Oddsshark

Network: CBS

Sleeper Spotlight: Nick Boyle

 

Baltimore Ravens

 

Quarterback: 

• Lamar Jackson (Start, High QB1)

 

In what was more of a floor game for Jackson, he turned in the QB10 fantasy performance in week three. He is now one point behind Patrick Mahomes for the number one fantasy quarterback. Jackson showed why he is so great for fantasy. He didn’t do much through the air, 267 scoreless yards, but gave us 46 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Jackson is fifth in average intended air yards, constantly pushing the ball down the field, and has the most pass attempts of 20+ yards in the NFL. The Browns boast a better than average pass rush, fifth in sack % and 13th in QB hits. This could mean more scrambling for Jackson, who already leads the league in rush attempts by a quarterback with 27. Jackson should be fired up as a confident QB 1 in all leagues.

 

Running Backs:

• Mark Ingram (Start, RB1/2)
• Gus Edwards (sit, end of the bench)
• Justice Hill (Sit, end of the bench, wire)

 

Coming into week four as the RB5, Ingram continues to take more of this backfield over. He played 60% of the running back snaps in week three, which is the most he has played all season. He also had all of the running back looks in the red zone and the most targets out of the backfield (four). The Ravens offensive line is fifth in run blocking according to football outsiders. This isn’t a particularly easy matchup for Ingram. Cleveland has a pretty good run defense only giving up 4.0 yards per carry and one score on the ground through three games. Their defensive line also rates above average against the run. Edwards remains the direct backup to Ingram and played 27% of the snaps last week. He can’t be started in leagues while Ingram is active. Hill is an end of bench-stash/droppable in leagues. His snap percentage has dropped every week, 30%-20%-13% the last three games. It is also concerning this was a game that the Ravens trailed for the most part and Hill still couldn’t get a good chunk of playing time. Without an injury, Hill doesn’t seem to have much of a role in this offense. If you have Ingram, you are playing him and you should feel fine with him in the low RB1/ high RB2 range.

 

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

• Marquise Brown (start, WR2)
• Mark Andrews (start, TE1)
• Willie Snead (sit, wire)
• Hayden Hurst (sit, TE2 )
• Nick Boyle (sit, TE2)

 

Brown comes into week four as the WR14 in PPR formats. He had a down week with only two receptions and 49 yards. He did show some encouraging signs for us going forward. He led the receivers in snap percentage at a season-high 75%. Brown also led the team in targets with nine in week three. He has a very nice 40% of his team’s air yards and the fourth most downfield (20+) targets in the league. The Browns are very banged up in the secondary. Their top two corners and both starting safeties are questionable for this game and did not play in week three against the Rams. Snead should be avoided in most leagues. He is in the muddled group for the third option in the passing game. Andrews has been bothered by a foot injury but played the same percentage of snaps in week three as he did in week two. He has been consistent with his targets, accumulating 24 through three games. Coming into week four as the TE 2, Andrews should be looked at as a top-five TE play every week. Andrews continues to show well in underlying numbers, second at his position in target separation, second in completed air yards, and fourth in yards per target. He is one of Jackson’s favorite targets and gets the ball downfield more than most tight ends. Hurst and Boyle are ancillary pieces in this offense and don’t have value unless Andrews was to miss time.

 

Cleveland Browns

 

Quarterback:

• Baker Mayfield (Start, QB2)

 

Mayfield has been brutal so far both in real life and in fantasy. The QB23 through three weeks has three touchdowns and five interceptions to his name. Mayfield has been uncharacteristically inaccurate so far this season. He has the sixth-lowest completion percentage in the league at 56.9%. The Browns offensive line has been a problem all year, giving up the eighth highest sack rate in the league and ranking 31st in protection rate. The Ravens defense doesn’t have a ton of sacks, only seven, but lead the league in QB hits with 28. The Ravens defense has gotten shredded through the air the last two games, giving up over 300 yards to both the Cardinals and the Chiefs. The Ravens form a classic pass funnel, stuffing the run (third-lowest 181 yards given up this season) while not being able to stop the pass well. This is a less daunting matchup than on paper for Mayfield, but I can’t trust him to be more than a QB 2 right now.

 

Running Backs:

• Nick Chubb (start, RB1/2)

 

Chubb is the RB13 so far this year and is the only one worth talking about in this backfield. He played 70 of 72 snaps in week three and had all of the targets and red zone work for the Browns. The Ravens have a stout run defense as noted above, and Cleveland’s offensive line hasn’t shown too well in the run game thus far, ranking 21st in adjusted line yards. What is working in Chubb’s favor is his volume. He has the fourth-highest opportunity share (carries + targets) among running backs in the league. He is a good bet to score a touchdown every week given his three-down role. Chubb hasn’t played particularly well so far individually, ranking 29th at his position in DVOA, and has the lowest success rate according to football outsiders. Chubb is always in play if you have him based on his elite usage, even in an uninviting matchup.

 

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends:

• Odell Beckham Jr (start, WR1)
• Jarvis Landry (start, Flex/WR4)
• Rashard Higgins (sit, wire)
• Demetrius Harris (sit, TE2)

 

The Ravens have a couple of key injuries in their secondary with slot corner Tavon Young and solid-veteran Jimmy Smith both injured. Beckham has had one monster game sandwiched by two okay performances so far in 2019. He is the WR18 on the season but things are looking up for him. He has the seventh-highest target share at his position and is 10th at average target separation. A lot of his problems are tied to Mayfield and the offensive line. Beckham ranks 63rd at receiver in catchable target rate. That is a very low number from a usually accurate Mayfield. I would be surprised if top corner Marlon Humphries didn’t shadow Beckham, as both of them do not play the slot much at all. Landry has been dreadful this season. He has played every snap so far but is the WR58 in PPR leagues through three games. It isn’t due to a lack of targets as he is 25th at the position in targets and 10th in deep targets (20+ yards). His air yards are predictably low, as he has traditionally relied on volume more so than chunk plays to get fantasy points. He also has a 43.5% catch rate combined with a 69.8% catchable target rate. Both numbers are extremely low and should tick up if Mayfield can play better. Landry has a good matchup against Brandon Carr in the slot but can only be trusted as a WR4 low-end flex. Higgins hasn’t played since week one and is questionable for this week. He should probably be on your waiver wires. Harris played 90% of the snaps without starter David Njoku but only garnered two targets and can be avoided until he shows a bigger role in this offense.

-Kevin Taylor (@ktbeast918)