Kickoff: Sunday, October 11th at 4:05 PM ET
Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Betting Odds: MIA +8.5, 47 total via Oddsshark
Ryan Fitzpatrick (Sit, QB2)
The old man keeps getting it done. Ryan Fitzpatrick now has three QB1 performances in a row. The 49ers are a bit banged up but are still 11th in the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, not far from where they were last year. One could argue Ryan’s performance last week was pretty mediocre. He mostly salvaged his day with a rushing touchdown. It will be more difficult for Fitzpatrick to achieve QB1 numbers again against a better defense in a game with less projected points. Even with San Francisco’s injured corners, I’m ranking Fitz in the middle of the QB2’s this week.
Myles Gaskin (Flex consideration), Jordan Howard (Sit), Matt Breida (Sit)
Myles Gaskin struggled a bit last week, but he’s still the lead back on this team. That said, Gaskin has a tough match-up this week against a 49ers defense that is currently the best in the league in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Considering Gaskin’s involvement in the passing game, he is still worthy of flex consideration in PPR leagues, but I wouldn’t expect any more from Myles this week.
The encouraging news for Gaskin owners is that it looks like Jordan Howard is trending downward as Myles takes over. Last week was the first week Howard did not vulture a goal-line touchdown all year, and he only received two carries. Howard is an easy sit. Matt Breida had his best performance of the season last week, but it still only amounted to 7.8 fantasy points. Gaskin remains the only fantasy-relevant back on this team.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DeVante Parker (Start, Low-end WR2), Preston Williams (Sit), Isaiah Ford (Sit), Mike Gesicki (TE2)
DeVante Parker was one of the lone bright spots in the Miami offense last week with his largest target share of the season. San Francisco is top-eight in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, but assuming Parker’s target share remains healthy, he should be capable of low-end WR2 production this week.
With only five targets and three receptions in the past two weeks, I’m not trusting Preston Williams until he can show more production on this team. Likewise, Isaiah Ford’s target share has been too inconsistent to trust every week.
With three targets and one catch in each of his past two games, Mike Gesicki could be more touchdown-dependent than we thought. Gesicki’s target share went from 26% in the first two weeks to 10% over the past two weeks. To make matters worse, Mike is going up against the 49ers, who are currently top-three in points allowed to tight ends so far this year. I’m lower than most on Gesicki this week, but still think he’s capable of high-end TE2 numbers.
San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo (Doubtful), C.J. Beathard (Sit), Nick Mullens (Sit)
Jimmy Garoppolo got a limited practice on Wednesday, but his status is still very much “up in the air” at the time of this writing. If he were to play, Jimmy G would be a much-needed boost to the San Francisco offense. The match-up is favorable to fantasy quarterbacks, so if Garoppolo plays, I like his chances at high-end QB2 numbers. That’s a big if, though.
Last week, C.J. Beathard replaced Nick Mullens after the latter threw multiple interceptions. He didn’t play a full game, but Beathard didn’t exactly impress with only five and a half fantasy points. The 49ers struggled on their way to giving the Eagles their first win of the season. Even with the Dolphins allowing plenty of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, neither of these guys will be dependable enough to start this week.
It seems like this will be Jerick McKinnon’s backfield while the other San Fran backs are hurt. After a large share in Week 3, Jeff Wilson Jr. only saw four touches in Week 4 to McKinnon’s 14 carries and eight targets. Jerick capitalized on his opportunities last week with an impressive RB1 performance, which was his best of the season and best fantasy showing since October 2017. The Dolphins are currently bottom 10 in the league against fantasy quarterbacks and were just as bad last year. Assuming McKinnon gets the majority of the work again, he should be a safe, high-end RB2 play with a favorable match-up this week. Wilson’s usage is still a little too uncertain to reach flex consideration this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Brandon Aiyuk (Sit, Risky WR3), Kendrick Bourne (Sit), Deebo Samuel (Sit), George Kittle (Start, TE1)
With two rushing touchdowns on only four carries in the past two weeks, Brandon Aiyuk has been putting up numbers with a fairly limited share. Aiyuk is still a pretty risky WR3 play, but the match-up helps a bit. Miami is currently allowing the fifth-most passing yards to wide receivers so far this year.
Kendrick Bourne is averaging about three catches per game this year and isn’t doing enough work to warrant any consideration.
Deebo Samuel finally returned last week, but with the rest of the 49ers struggling on offense, only saw three targets and one rush attempt. Considering the crippled San Francisco offense, I’m not too high on Deebo this week. I need to see more production from him before he’s in my starting lineup. He’s outside WR3 territory for me this week.
While the rest of the 49ers’ receivers struggled, George Kittle showed he is still one of the absolute best tight ends in the NFL with a monster 40-point overall TE1 performance in his Week 4 return. The Dolphins were so-so against tight ends last year but have been pretty stingy so far in 2020. That said, it’s George Kittle, and if he continues to get crazy volume with these inexperienced quarterbacks at the helm, he should be in line for another big day.
-Ryan Kruse (@ryanpkruse on Twitter)