Dolphins@Bills
Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 20th at 1:00 pm EST
Location: New Era Field, Orchard Park, NY
Betting Odds: -16.5 BUF, 39 Total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Sleeper Spotlight: Dawson Knox
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback:
- Josh Rosen: (Sit)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick: (Sit)
Just when we thought the Fitz-magic was Fitz-happening the Dolphins came just short of the winning two-point conversion last week when Ryan Fitzpatrick threw a quick pass and his running back let the ball go right through his hands. Head coach Brian Flores said after the game that Josh Rosen would remain the Dolphins’ starting quarterback going forward, then announced that Fitzpatrick was again the starting quarterback on Wednesday. At the very least it should be interesting to see if Fitzpatrick brings anything new to the table with a complete game. The Bills are still only allowing opposing quarterbacks 10.3 fantasy points per game so I wouldn’t expect any magic just yet.
Running Backs:
- Kenyan Drake: (FLEX at most)
- Mark Walton: (Sit)
- Kalen Ballage: (Sit)
I shouldn’t even need to mention Mark Walton and Kalen Ballage here but both backs posted their highest fantasy totals of the season last week. Kenyan Drake was never an amazing fantasy option but there was at least hope he would be the go-to back on this offense. It’s worrying to see Walton get consistent carries and Ballage vulturing touchdowns. Either way, Drake is going to have a tough go of it against a defense that is ranked seventh in opponent rushing yards per game. I’m expecting FLEX production at most and hopefully, you have a better option for this week because that matchup is not very promising.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends:
- DeVante Parker (FLEX at most)
- Albert Wilson (Sit)
- Jakeem Grant (Sit)
- Mike Gesicki (Sit)
- Preston Williams (Sit)
DeVante Parker is going to be one of those guys who you’re praying finds the end zone on one of his three or four catches of the day. He’s averaging about 12.5 fantasy points the past three weeks and has caught a touchdown the past two weeks but this matchup will be tough for all Dolphins receivers. The Bills defense is top-three in passing yards allowed per game. Don’t expect much if you need to play him.
Albert Wilson had his best fantasy day of the season with a 6.5-point performance last week. He likely got the extra work because Jakeem Grant didn’t play because he re-aggravated a hamstring injury. Neither is even worth a bench slot. Mike Gesicki had his best fantasy performance of the season last week as well. He had a season-high in targets last week as well and still only finished with about eight fantasy points. Preston Williams has had declining targets the past three games and likely isn’t going to be relevant this year.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback:
- Josh Allen: (Start, QB1)
This should be a rather easy matchup for Josh Allen this week. The Dolphins’ defense is dead last, allowing the most yards to opposing offenses in the entire league. This defense is handing out great QBR’s to opposing quarterbacks this year. After getting a bit banged up on a big hit a few weeks ago, Allen will be coming into this game relatively fresh after a well-earned bye week rest. A well-rested Allen with an extra week to gameplan for this pathetic defense should easily put him in QB1 territory this week.
Running Backs:
- Devin Singletary: (Start if active, FLEX with RB2 upside)
- Frank Gore: (Start, FLEX)
- T.J. Yeldon: (Sit)
The Bills had a bye week last week, but Devin Singletary was a game-time decision the week before. The Bills decided to give him the extra rest and many are expecting the electric rookie to make his return against a Dolphins’ defense that’s second-to-last in rushing yards allowed per game. If Singletary is healthy and starting I would confidently put him in the FLEX slot. Even with Frank Gore still, around, I think Singletary is an easy FLEX play with RB2 upside if he’s healthy and fired up. It’s possible the Bills could still rely on Gore to get those tough short yards and punch-in touchdowns in goal-line situations. With such a juicy matchup, it’s hard to bench Gore until we know Singletary has the lion’s share in this backfield. T.J. Yeldon continues to get involved in the Bills’ passing game but he’s not likely to become fantasy-relevant overnight.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
- John Brown (Start, FLEX)
- Cole Beasley (FLEX)
- Dawson Knox (Sit, TE2 with upside)
- Isaiah McKenzie (Sit)
- Duke Williams (Risky FLEX)
John Brown should still be a big part of this team’s passing attack and should fare well against the Dolphins’ bad pass defense. Only six other teams are allowing more passing yards per game. So long as the targets are there, I think Brown should be safely in FLEX consideration this week with possibly WR2 upside. Cole Beasley had his lowest fantasy output of the season in Buffalo’s last game. I thought he would be a matchup-proof low-floor type of guy but I suppose I was wrong. Either way, Beasley should have a nice opportunity to bounce back against a bad Miami secondary. His lack of red-zone targets will likely limit his upside this season, but he should be dependable for a good floor most weeks. I wouldn’t expect more than FLEX production, especially because we simply haven’t seen it yet from him.
I think it’s still worth keeping an eye on Dawson Knox. He had his biggest target share of the season in the Bills’ latest game (even if he didn’t do much with it). If you’re desperate for a last-minute TE fill-in you could do worse snagging Knox from waivers. Like many tight ends, he will remain touchdown-dependant but should get plenty of work opportunity against the Dolphins. Isaiah McKenzie will pop up every few weeks to catch about two passes and put up a so-so fantasy performance. I don’t think he’s worth your time in 12-team leagues. Duke Williams may be worth keeping an eye on as well. He has activated from the practice squad before the game against the Titans two weeks ago and caught all four of his targets, including one for a touchdown. His stock could be on the rise if he continues to be a big part of the Bills’ passing game.
-Ryan Kruse (@ryanpkruse)
You have Justice Hill listed as the handcuff, so I’m wasting a roster spot on Gus?
If something happened to Ingram, I think it’s fair to say that it would be a committee approach to replace him. Depends if you would prefer the workhorse and TD role of Gus or the passing game role with Hill. As someone who drafted Hill everywhere, I have long since dropped him. Gus is probably the safer handcuff in my opinion, Hill maybe has more upside in a PPR league.
Might be worth noting Josh Gordon had one target after he left the game with a knee injury in second quarter.
Odd that you’re taking that stance on Murray. Everything that i’ve read has said that Kamara possibly has a high ankle sprain and is most likely not playing. Even with Kamara playing last week, Murray spit out 10 points in my half ppr league.
Great breakdown of the QBs in Week 7! It’s really helpful to see everything in one place. Thanks for the time and effort you put into this post!