Jaguars@Bengals
Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 20th at 1:00 pm EST
Location: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Betting Odds: CIN +3.5, 43.5 Total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Sleeper Spotlight: Auden Tate
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback:
- Gardner Minshew (Sit)
Gardner Minshew gets a cozy matchup with the Bengals to rebound from the worst start of his NFL career. Minshew struggled against a good Saints defense, who after a tough start to the season has now shut down Dak Prescott, Jameis Winston, and Minshew in consecutive games. The Mustached Marauder comes in as a high-end QB2 for me, so if you’re in a pinch or streaming, you can certainly do worse than this matchup. The Bengals have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Running Backs:
- Leonard Fournette (Start/RB1)
- Ryquell Armstead (Sit)
If you look up “workhorse” in the Encyclopedia Britannica, right next to the picture of CMC is Leonard Fournette. For the year, Fournette has handled 91% of the Jaguars running back carries and has received 36 targets, seventh-highest in the league. I expect the Jaguars to be able to run at will against a Bengals defense that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this year. Not that you need icing on this cake, but with just one touchdown on the year, Fournette is one of the biggest touchdown regression candidates in the league. If something were to happen to Fournette, Ryquell Armstead has the skills to be a three-down back, making him one of the most valuable handcuffs in the league.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends:
- D.J. Chark (Start/WR2)
- Dede Westbrook (Start/Flex)
- Chris Conley (Sit)
- Josh Oliver (Sit)
- Keelan Cole (Sit)
D.J. Chark has made quite the name for himself over the first six weeks of the season. Chark currently sits as WR5 in PPR scoring, thanks in part to finding the end zone five times already. Chark is tied for the team league in target share with Dede Westbrook at 22%, but Chark leads the team in Air Yards and has an aDOT of 14.2. Westbrook has seen a decent amount of work out of the slot, but his low aDOT of 7.0 yards per target, really limits his upside. He’s a decent safe floor play in PPR leagues though. Chris Conley has been primarily been used as a downfield deep threat but has seen his targets drop over the last three weeks. He’ll hit on a deep ball every now and against, but you’re playing a losing game if you’re chasing the Conley deep touchdown. Josh Oliver is the Jaguars lone healthy tight end and can be properly ignored. Keelan Cole has just one target over the last three games and can also be ignored.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback:
- Andy Dalton (Sit)
Due to his porous offensive line, Andy Dalton may be in for another long afternoon. The Bengals have allowed 22 sacks on the year, fifth-most in the league. In this corner, we have the Jaguars defense who have sacked the quarterback on 8.37% of dropbacks, which is tied for the sixth-highest rate in the league. At this point, I have minimal faith in this Bengals offense and if I want to give myself a chance to win in fantasy football, I’m looking elsewhere.
Running Backs:
- Joe Mixon (Start/RB2)
- Giovanni Bernard (Sit)
Unfortunately, Joe Mixon runs behind that same porous offensive line and it’s shown in his recent production. In Week 6 against the Ravens, Mixon carried the ball eight times for 10 yards. If you have other options, I prefer to keep Mixon on the bench, but I understand if you’re in a situation where you have to start him. While Mixon has received nine targets over his last three games, it’s frustrating to see Giovanni Bernard getting 12 targets over that same period. If all of those targets were concentrated to just Mixon, it would be a lot easier to start him. The only bright side to this matchup is that the Jaguars have struggled to stop the run, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing backs.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends:
- A.J. Green (Start/WR2*)
- Tyler Boyd (Start/Flex)
- Auden Tate (Start/Flex*)
- Tyler Eifert (Sit)
- C.J. Uzomah (Sit)
With the Jalen Ramsey drama finally over, we now know what the Jaguars secondary will look like moving forward and that’s been pretty neutral over the last three weeks. If A.J. Green returns to the lineup, I think we can roll him out as a low-end WR2, but I understand if you want to proceed with caution; especially when you combine the injury with the terrible offense. Tyler Boyd’s role out of the slot shouldn’t be affected by Green’s eventual return. Over the last three weeks, Boyd has a 24% target share, but just a 6.7 aDOT, which may be a good thing if the Jaguars defensive line can get to Dalton. If Green is back, Auden Tate becomes a sit, but he’s shown enough production over the last three weeks, that I can see firing him up as a flex play if Green were to continue to miss time. Tyler Eifert and C.J. Uzomah can rightfully be ignored.
-Rich Holman, @nextdoorFFguru
You have Justice Hill listed as the handcuff, so I’m wasting a roster spot on Gus?
If something happened to Ingram, I think it’s fair to say that it would be a committee approach to replace him. Depends if you would prefer the workhorse and TD role of Gus or the passing game role with Hill. As someone who drafted Hill everywhere, I have long since dropped him. Gus is probably the safer handcuff in my opinion, Hill maybe has more upside in a PPR league.
Might be worth noting Josh Gordon had one target after he left the game with a knee injury in second quarter.
Odd that you’re taking that stance on Murray. Everything that i’ve read has said that Kamara possibly has a high ankle sprain and is most likely not playing. Even with Kamara playing last week, Murray spit out 10 points in my half ppr league.
Great breakdown of the QBs in Week 7! It’s really helpful to see everything in one place. Thanks for the time and effort you put into this post!