Kickoff: Sunday, November 7th at 1:00 PM ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Florida
Betting Odds: MIA -6.5, 46 over/under total via Oddsshark
Tua Tagovailo (Sit, QB2)
Tua Tagovailo has had an up and down season so far. He has missed 3 games due to injury. He has a chance to right the ship in week 9 against a very weak Texan’s defense that is ranked 25th by CBS in giving up points to the quarterback position. Tua does have a turnover situation which really hurts his fantasy value. He has only 1 game where he hasn’t thrown an interception and that was the game he only attempted 4 passes before leaving with an injury. This game has a low expected score so we could see lots of running if the Fins get up early. This further limits the opportunities for Tua. He does have some rushing upside which for me puts me in the top of the qb2 range so there are better options but if you had to roll with Tua I think he has a high chance of beating my prediction.
Myles Gaskins (Start, RB2), Salvon Ahmed (Sit), Patrick Laird (Sit)
With Malcolm Brown on IR the dolphins have solidified their rushing game. Myles Gaskins has taken over as the lead back. In the past 2 weeks, he has received double-digit carries. He also leads the team in red zone rushing attempts with 9. Brown has 7 on the season which only means more for Gaskins and Salvon Ahmed. Ahmed is only a change of pace back at this point. He only played on 23% of the team’s snaps in week 8 compared to Gaskin’s 58%. It’s a low percentage for both running back and Patrick Laird for 14% as well. Truth be told the Dolphins just pass more than they run. They are 2nd behind the Buccaneers, rushing the ball 66.73% of the time. The low percentage of rushing plays lowers the value of all the running backs and makes Gaskins a low-end RB2. He has been productive on his carries. He is averaging 4.2 yards per attempt.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Jaylen Waddle (Start, WR2), DeVante Parker (
Start, WR3 Sit), Albert Wilson (Sit), Mike Gesicki (Start)
Friday reports are saying Parker had a setback with his hamstring and is now considered doubtful. I don’t think it changes to much of the outlook for the other receiving options other than I think Gesicki has a better day.
The Dolphins made waves in the NFL draft when they selected Jaylen Waddle with the 6th overall pick. He has been returning on that investment for the Dolphins and for fantasy owners. Over the past 3 weeks, Waddle has seen 13,8 and 12 targets. He hauled in 2 of them in week 6 for touchdowns. he hasn’t been super efficient on his targets as a whole for the season catching 69.6% of his targets. Not horrible numbers but fantasy owners want more. he does get a lot of deep ball throws which when they hit can be big point gains for your team. After Waddle, it’s DeVante Parker. He missed 3 games this season but still only trails Waddle in total targets by 26. He has been catching only 58.1% of his targets. he only has 2 red-zone targets compared to Waddle’s 8. After Waddle and Parker, there isn’t really anyone you want. Albert Wilson and Mack Hollins have been nonfactors. Tight end Mike Gesicki is the 3rd option in the passing game. He has 3 red-zone targets but has hauled in 2 of them for touchdowns. He only had 4 targets in week 8 but in the previous 3 games, weeks 6-8, had 7,9, and 8 targets. He also has a game this year with 12 targets. The Texans are horrible against the tight end position so it could be a huge week for Gesicki.
Tyrod Taylor (Sit) Davis Mills (Sit, QB2)
Reports on Thursday said that Tyrod Taylor will be making he return to the starting job for the Texans. Tyrod hasn’t played since getting injured in week 2. He was playing well before his injury and looks to regain his QB1 form. I’m not sure he is there yet. He might need one more week. The offense is slightly different since Tyrod has left. new running backs and some newer faces at the wide receiver core. Tyrod is an upgrade from Davis Mills who has been up and down. The poor Dolphins pass defense makes this an eye-catching match up but there are better options and most fantasy owners will want to wait a week to see if Tyrod still has it.
Davis Mills might be one of the most frustrating quarterbacks for fantasy. Let’s say that no one is starting him but in 2 of his 6 starts, he was a top-end choice and was halfway decent in another. then he has 3 games where he was just horrible. Week 9 he gets the 30th ranked team according to CBS in terms of giving points to the quarterback position. I still don’t think you start him unless you are in a 2 QB league. He is still learning the NFL and this week might be a good game for him but you can’t count on that. You will be less mad if he does well and you didn’t start him than you would if you start him and he plays terribly. Tyrod Taylor looks to become eligible soon so Mills would need to maintain his good play to keep his starting job
David Johnson (Sit), Phillip Lindsay (Sit), Rex Burkhead (Sit, Flex), Scottie Phillips (Sit)
The Texans traded away Mark Ingram before week 8 and rolled out a running game that features David Johnson, Rex Burkhead, Phillip Lindsay, and Scottie Phillips. Yes, you read those names correctly. The issue is that none of them had the main role and none of them were that good on their carries. The team seems to want to ride the hot hand but everyone is cold as ice. Rex Burkhead was the best out of the 4 because he was involved in the passing game catching 3 of his 4 targets for 27 yards and did have the one rushing touchdown. Burkhead played 49% of the snaps in Week 8 which is more than the others. Scottie Phillips was an interesting addition to the stat box week 8. The 2nd year player played on 25% of the team’s snaps and actually led the team in carries with 5. He also received 3 targets. I don’t think he is worth starting but might be worth a stash.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Brandin Cooks (Start, WR2), Nico Collins (Sit), Chris Conley (Sit), Danny Amendola(Sit), Jordan Akins (Sit), Brevin Jordan (Sit)
Brandin Cooks has cooled off slightly after his hot 4 game start. He did have 6 receptions on 6 targets for 83 yards and a score in week 8 against a good Ram’s secondary. Cooks continues to be the focal point of the passing game leading the team in snap percentage at 88.4%. He’s worth rolling out in your lineup in a game where neither team’s defense is that good. Chris Conley is next in terms of snap percentage but hasn’t done much on those snaps. He only has 8 receptions on the year. Rookie Nico Collins had a decent showing but isn’t worth starting right now. The future does look bright for him. Outside of Cooks, you don’t really want to start anyone including tight ends Jordan Akins and Brevin Jordan. If it was a bye week nightmare Danny Amendola might be worth a look after getting 5 targets the past 2 weeks.
– Dustin Ludke (Dunit13dl on Reddit)