Streaming Defenses: Week 7

Mike Miklius (@SIRL0INofBEEF) takes a look at the top defenses to stream in week 7

(Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire)

 

Oh, New York City–how low can your football teams sink? If I could choose “Jets opponent” as my defense, I would have 67 points on the season and a second-place ranking. The Jets are averaging fewer than 12 points per game on offense and just released Le’Veon Bell. Meanwhile, the Giants have given up 56 fantasy points to opposing defenses while averaging fewer than 15 points of their own on offense. They are a combined 1-11 with that one win coming from the Giants against the 1-5 Washington Football Team. Yeah, New York is definitely in a dry spell. It’s no wonder, then, that we will keep attacking the Jets and Giants–as well as a few other great opponents–as we move through the season. Here’s a look at the week 6 results.

 

Rank Team Opponent Fant. Pts. % Owned Sacks Interceptions Fumbles
1 Tampa Bay Green Bay 19 58% 5 2 0
2 Pittsburgh Cleveland 18 97% 4 2 0
T-3 Miami NY Jets 15 55% 3 1 0
T-3 Arizona Dallas 15 61% 3 2 2
T-5 Denver New England 14 26% 4 2 1
T-5 NY Giants Washington 14 38% 3 1 1
7 Chicago Carolina 11 78% 4 2 1
T-8 Atlanta Minnesota 7 1% 1 3 0
T-8 Baltimore Philadelphia 7 100% 6 0 1
T-8 New England Denver 7 88% 2 2 0
T-11 NY Jets Miami 6 7% 2 2 0
T-11 Detroit Jacksonville 6 3% 1 1 1

 

Once again, we crushed it with our streamer. Miami dismantled the Jets, who failed to score a point. It’s always fun seeing a streamer shut out an opponent. I don’t have any deep takeaway other than to say Miami is better than we thought at the start of the year and the Jets are still a complete disaster. At least they’ll end up with Trevor Lawrence, right? Looking at all the teams we mentioned, under-owned Indianapolis and New England scored 4 and 7 respectively. New England taught us that the Covid hangover looks like a real thing, and we should beware of teams like this in the future. Looking at our other streamers, Minnesota scored 0, Washington scored 4, and the Giants scored 14 thanks to a defensive score. That means our streamers (including Miami) averaged just over eight points. Here are my takeaways from the week:

  • The Good: Tampa Bay and Miami have both looked excellent in recent weeks, and both should be rostered. Both are sitting below 60% owned, so there is a good chance you can find one of them. Miami is averaging 10.5 fantasy ppg over their last four contests while Tampa Bay is averaging better than 12 in the same span.
  • The Bad: The San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills are each better than 70% rostered, and both have failed to hit 7 or more fantasy points on five of six weeks. Both are completely droppable at this point.
  • The Ugly: The Jets, Giants, Broncos, and Washington continue to prove to be terrible offenses, and we should target them whenever we can. Sam Darnold has no chance to succeed with Adam Gase, Daniel Jones is terrible, Drew Lock isn’t looking good, and Washington can’t decide which of their bad QBs to go with. That’s four excellent teams we can attack.

 

Alright, so how are things looking for week 7? Let’s find out.

 

Under-owned Teams 

 

Kansas City Chiefs (82%, @ Denver)

 

Let’s start with the Kansas City Chiefs. At 82%, they aren’t likely to be sitting on your waivers. Still, they are worth mentioning based on the matchup. Denver has given up 11.5 fantasy points to opposing defenses in their last four games. The Broncos, meanwhile, give up an average of 4 sacks and 2 picks per game over their last four. That includes a game against the lowly Jets. Drew Lock, for his part, looked bad in week six. So how about Kansas City’s defense? They certainly aren’t elite, but they’ve held five opponents to 20 or less and they force 1.5 turnovers per game. Kansas City is a safe choice this week.

 

Buffalo Bills (71%, @ NY Jets)

 

Yeah, I know. I just said Buffalo was droppable after their slow start. They play the Jets though…what can I say? The Jets have only scored 18+ points in one game this year. They give up 3 sacks and a turnover per game. They have no weapons outside of Jamison Crowder, and they are actively trying to lose. The only reason I can imagine that Adam Gase still has a job is to ensure that the Jets do, in fact, get Trevor Lawrence. I’m serious. Buffalo, for its part, is coming off two straight losses and must be hungry to get back on track. I expect the Bills to come out strong and clobber a bad opponent. This would be my lock of the week if Buffalo was under 50% rostered.

 

Week 4 Streamers

 

New Orleans Saints (48%, vs Carolina)

 

New Orleans has definitely been a bit of a disappointment so far. After a big opening-weekend win over the Bucs, the Saints dropped their next two before barely beating the Lions and Chargers. New Orleans needs to get back on track fast, and I think this is the week. They’ve done a good job of getting after opposing QBs with 3 sacks in each of their last two contests. They also force a turnover per game and they’re coming off their bye week–more time to prepare. While it may seem inconsequential, they also get Michael Thomas back. Improving the offense should mean the defense doesn’t have to work quite as hard. Carolina’s offense has been mostly safe this year, but they were exposed by the Bears last week. I think New Orleans could rattle Teddy Bridgewater and force some mistakes. New Orleans is a good choice if you still believe in them as a good team.

 

Philadelphia Eagles (31%, Stream of the Week) vs NY Giants (38%)

 

Yikes. We’ve come to the “I have to consider them because they’re playing an NFC East team” section already. As far as NFC East teams go, though, we could do much worse than the Eagles. Philadelphia has averaged better than four sacks per game over their last four contests. They’ve also forced a turnover per game during the same span. Daniel Jones, for his part, averages close to two “interception + fumble”s per game. He gets sacked a healthy three times per game as well. How about the Giants? Philly gives up worse than four sacks and exactly two turnovers per game, mostly thanks to Carson Wentz and his season from hell. It’s possible that both of these teams end up in the top-10 and I could argue both as streaming options. I’m more confident in the Eagles getting to face Daniel Jones, and I just don’t think they are Giants/ Washington bad. Philadelphia is my stream of the week.

 

Dallas Cowboys (36%) @ Washington Football Team (34%)

 

And now we reach the bottom of the barrel. Dallas’ defense has scored negative points three times in their six games. They have only surpassed four points once: in week five when we used them as a streamer. Dallas doesn’t force turnovers, they give the ball away frequently, and they have trouble getting to the opposing quarterback. So we’re picking Washington? Not so fast. Washington hasn’t scored more than five fantasy points since week one. They have trouble getting to opposing quarterbacks as well, and they give up way too many points. Waiting for a bright side? Well, here it is: Kyle Allen is still starting for Washington, and he averages worse than two turnovers per game since the start of last year. Allen and Washington just lost to the Giants, so it’s safe to say they really are that bad. Dallas, meanwhile, lost a weird game last night in which Ezekiel Elliott fumbled on two consecutive plays. For comparison, he had three fumbles all of last year. I still think Dallas is better than its record while Washington looks like a 1-5 team. I’d go with Dallas if none of the previous options were available. You wouldn’t be crazy to look at Washington either though if you believe the Cowboys freefall is for real.

(Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire)

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