We are now into Round 2 of the fantasy playoffs, and hopefully, you’re one step closer to reaching the championship round. Unfortunately, injuries continue to pile up at running back. This past week alone, several mid-tier options went down, including Bam Knight, Samaje Perine, Woody Marks, and Devin Neal, forcing fantasy managers to scramble for replacements at the most critical time of the season.
Let’s start with veteran running back Aaron Jones Sr., who comes into Week 16 with a great matchup against the Giants. New York has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs and the second-most rushing yards on the season. Jones has struggled to produce explosive plays in recent weeks, but this matchup sets up well for a bounce-back performance. The Giants have surrendered 100 or more rushing yards to opposing backfields in each of the last three weeks, and their run defense continues to break down late in games. With a favorable game script and increased red-zone opportunities, Jones should be able to put up solid fantasy numbers and has a strong chance to find the end zone for the first time since Week 9. –Steve Pintado
You may want to pump the brakes on Omarion Hampton in your semifinal matchup. While the matchup against the Cowboys is fairly average on paper, the Chargers’ offense has struggled to establish a consistent run game in recent weeks. Hampton is also sharing the backfield more than many expected since his return, splitting work with Kimani Vidal. Through his first two games back, Hampton has only three more total touches than Vidal, limiting his overall ceiling. With injuries continuing to pile up along the offensive line, it’s hard to trust the Chargers’ rushing attack. Instead, I expect the offense to lean more on the passing game to exploit favorable matchups, further capping Hampton’s fantasy upside in a crucial playoff week. –Steve Pintado
I’d be cautious with the Seattle backfield on Thursday Night Football this week against the Rams. The Seahawks’ offense has been extremely inconsistent, and the run game has been frozen for weeks. In their most recent matchup—one they were expected to dominate—Seattle’s running backs combined for just 48 rushing yards. Game script also works against the run. If the Rams fall behind, it could force Seattle to lean more heavily on the passing game, further limiting rushing volume. Los Angeles has also been stout up front, recently holding the elite Detroit backfield to just 70 total rushing yards. In a semifinal matchup, I’d look to avoid this backfield, especially Kenneth Walker III. With limited touchdown upside right now, Walker is overly dependent on rushing efficiency, which makes him a risky start in a tough matchup. –Steve Pintado
A few sleepers who could win you the week are Jacory Croskett-Merritt and, potentially, Chris Rodriguez Jr. in a matchup against the Eagles. Philadelphia has struggled to contain the run, ranking in the bottom 12 in run defense this season. Croskett-Merritt was given the workload in Week 15 and delivered, finishing with over 90 rushing yards and a touchdown. With Marcus Mariota expected to start the rest of the season, the Commanders may lean more heavily on the run game to manage games and limit mistakes. If you’re dealing with a desperate situation at running back in the semifinals, the Commanders’ backfield is a risk worth considering, especially for managers searching for volume-driven upside. –Steve Pintado