Every year we play fantasy football and are in search of that game-changing breakout player that can help us beat our friends, family, or co-workers and win a fantasy title. But if you’ve played fantasy football before, actually finding that game-changing player is much more difficult than it seems. Through much research, I created a formula to make it easier to find the #1 overall fantasy RB each season. I publicly published this formula for the first time last year and many of the players who made the list ended up having a successful 2019 season. So let’s take a look at the players who made the 2020 list!
Here are the criteria to the “Mixon Formula”
- The RB must have had 30 or more receptions the previous year
- The RB must be age 26 or younger by the start of the upcoming fantasy year
- The RB must have had 65 or more rushing attempts the previous year
- The RB must have had over 200 rushing yards the previous year
- The RB has played three seasons or less prior to the start of the upcoming fantasy year
- The RB can’t be on a team that drafted an RB in the 1st round of the most recent NFL draft
- The RB must have only played for one NFL team
- The RB averages at least 5.5 yards per reception
- The RB averages greater than three yards per carry
Reasoning Behind Criteria
RB must have had 30 or more receptions the previous year
The NFL has evolved into having more of a focus on passing over the past few years. So with how the NFL has evolved, the top running back has to be effective in the passing game and be a true dual threat. Thirty receptions is set as the baseline because this means that the previous year, the RB was involved in the passing game averaging near 2 receptions (or more) a game.
RB must be age 26 or younger by the start of the upcoming fantasy year
You can’t teach an old dog new tricks. Running backs have a shorter shelf life than most other positions, so you need to get a player in their physical prime.
RB must have had 65+ rushing attempts the previous year
This part of the criteria eliminates a few of the 3rd down backs who don’t really have a role in the rushing game and therefore cannot reach the same ceiling as other backs. Sixty-five rushing attempts is set as the baseline because this means that in the previous year, the RB was at least getting an average of 4 carries per game.
RB must have had over 200 rushing yards the previous year
This is to make sure they have at least some talent. It’s pretty difficult to not get 200 yards on 65+ carries, regardless of offensive line play.
RB has played three seasons or less prior to the start of the upcoming fantasy year
A players’ potential can only bring them so far. If they’ve already played 4 seasons, they are official a proven commodity and are unlikely to break out any further.
RB can’t be on a team that drafted an RB in the 1st round of the most recent NFL draft
If a team drafts an RB in the 1st round, that means that they believe that they really need an upgrade at the position, and they will typically get their 1st round RB involved in the offense. The opportunity simply will not be there to be an RB1 if a 1st round RB is in the fold. This eliminated guys like Benny Cunningham (Rams drafted Todd Gurley round 1 of 2015), Branden Oliver (Chargers drafted Melvin Gordon round 1 of 2015), etc. in previous years.
RB must have only played for one NFL team
When a player is cut or traded that early into their career, it means that an NFL team does not believe they are missing out on a potential game-changing talent. While there are occasional guys that do breakout after being cut early in their career (Dion Lewis, Justin Forsett, and Alex Collins are a few examples in recent years), they are exceptions to the rule and generally never reach RB1 status.
RB averages at least 5.5 yards per reception the previous season
This metric is included to make sure that the RB is effective in open space and is actually doing something with the receptions they receive. Talent is necessary for a breakout.
RB averages greater than three yards per carry the previous season
Similar to the “RB averages at least 5.5 yards per reception” metric, this is to make sure the RB is not completely terrible. Three yards per carry is used as the baseline because many of the major game-changing candidates that were successful (Le’Veon Bell in 2014, Devonta Freeman in 2015, Melvin Gordon in 2016, Todd Gurley in 2017, Joe Mixon in 2018, etc.) struggled initially and averaged under four YPC. But, if a player is unable to even get three yards per carry, they are not worth your time.
2020 Candidates
And now, the moment of truth: the 2020 candidates! There were a few candidates that were close to making this list like Devin Singletary who was on pace to hit all the marks but ended up missing it by 1 reception, Tarik Cohen who was 1 carry short, or Ezekiel Elliott who had played one too many seasons. ADP data is from fantasy football calculator as of August 8th, 2020.
The Elites
The Elites are composed of players with top 10 ADPs that you would need to spend your first-round pick on to get.
Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey has been the number one fantasy back in the last two years, so it only makes sense that he’s the number one pick this year right?
Talent-wise, McCaffrey’s ability can’t be questioned. He’s the best dual-threat running back in the league and had over 2,000 yards from scrimmage last year. But there are a couple things that concern me about McCaffrey regarding the situation around him. The first is his offensive line. The Panthers let their guards Trai Turner, Greg Van Roten, and Daryl Williams go in the offseason and left John Miller, Dennis Daley, and Michael Schofield to compete for the two spots. In addition, the Panthers big offseason addition Russell Okung is considering retirement due to his concerns with the coronavirus. The second concern is the change in coaching. The last two years Norv Turner and Scott Turner have been the primary play-callers of the Panthers and they featured McCaffrey heavily having him on the field for 1039 snaps last year and giving him 403 touches. New head coach Matt Rhule has hinted at scaling McCaffrey’s workload back a little bit, and Rhule’s college track record of utilizing running backs shows some support for this. I still expect McCaffrey to be a top 5 fantasy running back, but the door is open for a new #1 fantasy back to jump on the scene.
| 2019 Stats | Age | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Yards Per Carry | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Yards Per Reception | ADP |
| Christian McCaffrey | 23 | 287 | 1387 | 4.8 | 116 | 1005 | 8.7 | 1.5 |
Saquon Barkley: Saquon Barkley struggled with injury last year but still managed to run for over 1000 yards and catch 52 passes. Now that he returns to health, he has an opportunity to once again challenge for the #1 overall fantasy running back. Saquon will be playing for a new coaching staff after Pat Shurmur was fired and replaced with Joe Judge. Under Joe Judge, Jason Garrett will be the primary play-caller for the Giants and he’s gotten impressive production out of his RB1s in the past with Ezekiel Elliott and DeMarco Murray. Barkley’s situation combined with his talent makes him an intriguing player at the top of the first and a legitimate option to go 1st overall in fantasy drafts.
| 2019 Stats | Age | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Yards Per Carry | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Yards Per Reception | ADP |
| Saquon Barkley | 22 | 217 | 1003 | 4.6 | 52 | 438 | 8.4 | 2.1 |
Alvin Kamara: Alvin Kamara is the safest player in the first round this year. He has the same elite offensive coach in Sean Payton, a very strong offensive line, plays in one of the best offenses in the league, is due for some positive regression. If you are looking for a rock-solid RB of the ones a part of the Mixon formula, Kamara is your guy.
| 2019 Stats | Age | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Yards Per Carry | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Yards Per Reception | ADP |
| Alvin Kamara | 24 | 171 | 797 | 4.7 | 81 | 533 | 6.6 | 5.3 |
Dalvin Cook: Dalvin Cook threatened to hold out, but is back and ready to go for the Minnesota Vikings. After a breakout season last year, Cook will have an opportunity to build upon that and challenge for the number one overall fantasy back. Situation-wise Cook is in a good place with the Vikings promoting Gary Kubiak to offensive coordinator. Kubiak is one of the best offensive minds in the NFL, in particular with his ability to get the run game going. If Cook stays healthy, it’s hard to envision him not finishing at least in the top 5 among running backs.
| 2019 Stats | Age | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Yards Per Carry | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Yards Per Reception | ADP |
| Dalvin Cook | 24 | 250 | 1135 | 4.5 | 53 | 519 | 9.8 | 5.5 |
Nick Chubb: Nick Chubb has a strong argument for the best pure runner in the NFL. If he didn’t have to share a backfield with Kareem Hunt, there would be a legitimate case for Nick Chubb at #1 overall in 2020. The Browns hired Kevin Stefanski as their new head coach, who’s one of the few play-callers to have his team run more often than they pass. On the offensive line, the Browns added star OT Jack Conklin and drafted Jedrick Wills in the first round of the 2020 NFL draft. The team also added TE Austin Hooper and FB Andy Janovich who should also help in the run game, and makes this one of the most talented offenses in the league on paper. Even with Hunt in the mix, based on his talent and the team around him Chubb will still easily be an RB1 and has #1 overall RB upside if Hunt misses time.
| 2019 Stats | Age | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Yards Per Carry | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Yards Per Reception | ADP |
| Nick Chubb | 24 | 298 | 1494 | 5.0 | 36 | 278 | 7.7 | 8.7 |
Joe Mixon: Joe Mixon is right in the name of the Mixon Formula, but can he finally become the #1 overall fantasy RB? I’m not sure. While he is the clear bell-cow in Cinncinati, whether or not he hits his ceiling will ultimately come down to how well #1 overall pick Joe Burrow plays. If Burrow plays well and gets the offense humming out the gate then Mixon could put up numbers that would make any fantasy owner happy. But if Burrow struggles like many rookie quarterbacks before him, Mixon will have more of an up and down year and likely be more of a high-end RB2.
| 2019 Stats | Age | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Yards Per Carry | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Yards Per Reception | ADP |
| Joe Mixon | 23 | 278 | 1137 | 4.1 | 35 | 287 | 8.2 | 9.9 |
One Small Step, Or One Giant Leap To Stardom?
This tier consists of players that will still cost you high draft capital, but there’s a good chance they are available for you in the second round.
Aaron Jones: Aaron Jones really broke out last year with 1558 yards from scrimmage, 49 receptions, and 19 touchdowns. The question is can he build upon this campaign in 2020. There are some roadblocks that can limit his upside. One concern is that the Packers drafted A.J. Dillon in the second round of the NFL draft, and created more competition for carries with Jones. Another concern for Jones is the loss of OT Bryan Bulaga on the Packers offensive line. Jones is probably more likely to finish as a high-end RB2 than a top 5 fantasy back in 2020, but he’s still worth considering in the second round of fantasy drafts.
| 2019 Stats | Age | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Yards Per Carry | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Yards Per Reception | ADP |
| Aaron Jones | 25 | 236 | 1084 | 4.6 | 49 | 474 | 9.7 | 12.8 |
Miles Sanders: Miles Sanders had a really impressive rookie season despite splitting carries with Jordan Howard last year, taking 178 carries for 818 rushing yards, catching 50 passes for 509 receiving yards, and scoring 6 touchdowns. While Doug Pederson has traditionally run more of a committee approach at running back, he hasn’t had a talent like Miles Sanders. Even if the usage claims might be too heavily focused on, there is another concern with Miles Sanders this year: his offensive line. The Eagles lost star RG Brandon Brooks after he tore his Achilles tendon in July. Losing Brooks will hurt and may limit Sanders’ upside for 2020, but Sanders’ pass-catching ability should keep him afloat as an RB2 at the very least.
| 2019 Stats | Age | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Yards Per Carry | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Yards Per Reception | ADP |
| Miles Sanders | 23 | 179 | 818 | 4.6 | 50 | 509 | 10.2 | 13.1 |
Austin Ekeler: Austin Ekeler was the best pass-catching running back not named Christian McCaffrey last year, catching 92 passes for 993 receiving yards. And the craziest thing about that is that he put up those stats with star running back Melvin Gordon in the mix. The situation for Ekeler is shaping up to be perfect: an improved offensive line that added OT Bryan Bulaga, a head coach that has historically gotten the most out of their running game in Anthony Lynn, and a ton of carries available with Melvin Gordon gone. The big concern with Ekeler is that he hasn’t handled more than 132 carries in his three seasons in the league. But if you are shooting for upside, Ekeler has the best chance to finish as the #1 overall fantasy running back of players being drafted outside the top 10.
| 2019 Stats | Age | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Yards Per Carry | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Yards Per Reception | ADP |
| Austin Ekeler | 24 | 132 | 557 | 4.2 | 92 | 993 | 10.8 | 19.4 |
James Conner: The Pittsburgh Steelers officially entrusted James Conner to be their starting back after finally letting Le’Veon Bell go last year. Conner was hampered with injuries all last season, playing in only 10 games and failing to run for just 500 yards. But despite this, he still managed to meet all the criteria for the Mixon formula. And in a strange way, Conner busting last year could lead to him being a phenomenal value in 2020. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has said in the past that he prefers to utilize one running back rather than a committee, and James Conner will be his RB1. While it remains to be seen if Conner’s body can hold up to a full season of play, he’s likely to be in the low RB1/high RB2 range in the games he plays.
| 2019 Stats | Age | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Yards Per Carry | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Yards Per Reception | ADP |
| James Conner | 24 | 116 | 464 | 4.0 | 34 | 251 | 7.4 | 25.3 |
Chris Carson: The Seahawks running game is one of the best in the NFL, and Chris Carson has been one of the most underrated backs in that time frame. He’s been able to fend off Rashaad Penny for the starting role over the past two seasons and run for over 1100 yards in both. Carson probably doesn’t have #1 overall RB potential, but his current ADP is criminal based on what he’s done in the past. Expect him to be a consistent low-end RB1/high-end RB2.
| 2019 Stats | Age | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Yards Per Carry | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Yards Per Reception | ADP |
| Chris Carson | 25 | 278 | 1230 | 4.4 | 37 | 266 | 7.2 | 27.9 |
Stud or Dud?
The Stud Or Dud range has historically been where the real value is in the Mixon Formula. These are the guys who have had their draft price deflated due to concerns about workload, injuries, etc. but if everything goes right they could be league winners.
Leonard Fournette: Leonard Fournette came into the league as the 4th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, and was expected to be one of the best running backs in the league from day one. While he has been an above-average running back, he hasn’t quite lived up to the billing of a 4th overall pick and dealt with his share of injury and disciplinary issues. The Jaguars have tried to trade him a few times in the past year to no avail.
Many of these concerns, in addition to the Jaguars signing Chris Thompson this past offseason to siphon away receiving opportunities, have made Fournette’s draft stock plummet. But it’s important to remember he’s still the clear cut #1 back in Jacksonville, he’s due for some positive regression in the red zone department after scoring only three touchdowns in 2019, and he did put up over 1500 scrimmage yards last year. As long as Fournette is healthy, he will be one of the better values coming from the Mixon Formula in 2020.
| 2019 Stats | Age | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Yards Per Carry | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Yards Per Reception | ADP |
| Leonard Fournette | 25 | 265 | 1152 | 4.3 | 76 | 522 | 6.9 | 31.6 |
Ronald Jones: Ronald Jones is the biggest enigma of 2020 fantasy football drafts. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected to have more red zone rushing opportunities with new QB Tom Brady directing the offense. There has also been a lot of hype in the offseason about how much more improved Ronald Jones has looked. While there are concerns with how much usage Jones will get after the Buccaneers drafted Ke’Shawn Vaughn and signed LeSean McCoy in the offseason, at his current draft price he’s a phenomenal gamble and could have the biggest payoff from this list in 2020.
| 2019 Stats | Age | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Yards Per Carry | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Yards Per Reception | ADP |
| Ronald Jones | 23 | 172 | 724 | 4.2 | 31 | 309 | 10.0 | 78.9 |
Handy Handcuffs
These are the players who are unlikely to contribute because they don’t have a projected starting role. But if they get one, boy howdy.
Jamaal Williams: With the Packers drafting A.J. Dillon as well as already having his teammate Aaron Jones ahead of him on the depth chart, it’s hard to envision Jamaal Williams being a breakout player in 2020.
| 2019 Stats | Age | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Yards Per Carry | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Yards Per Reception | ADP |
| Jamaal Williams | 25 | 107 | 460 | 4.3 | 39 | 253 | 6.5 | 150.1 |
Royce Freeman: Royce Freeman is in a similar situation to Jamaal Williams and would need to supplant both Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay to have any shot at fantasy relevance in 2020.
| 2019 Stats | Age | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Yards Per Carry | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Yards Per Reception | ADP |
| Royce Freeman | 24 | 132 | 496 | 3.8 | 43 | 256 | 6.0 | NA |
Personal Favorite Candidates
While there is a ton of value on this list every year, my personal favorite values of the Mixon Formula in 2020 are: Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, Leonard Fournette, and Ronald Jones. Alvin Kamara is one of the more costly, but also one the safest of the players on the formula to have a top 3 fantasy finish. Nick Chubb’s talent and improved offense keep his floor high, and if Kareem Hunt misses any time we are likely looking at the #1 fantasy back in Kevin Stefanski’s offensive system. Austin Ekeler is a player I’d count out in the past, but there’s no denying that he has #1 overall fantasy back upside with his situation and dual-threat ability. Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones both have question marks but at their current ADPs their upside heavily outweighs their flaws.
Historical Data
Let’s take a look at the candidates in each of the previous 6 seasons who met these criteria (link to data collection) and the season that followed to gauge the success of this formula. ADP data is based on data from fantasy football calculator for 12 team standard leagues.
2014 Candidates
The candidates for the 2014 season were Eddie Lacy, DeMarco Murray, Giovani Bernard, Andre Ellington, Le’Veon Bell, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Bilal Powell.
| Player | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Total Touchdowns | ADP |
| Eddie Lacy | 246 | 1139 | 42 | 427 | 13 | 9th overall |
| DeMarco Murray | 392 | 1845 | 57 | 416 | 13 | 13th overall |
| Giovani Bernard | 168 | 680 | 43 | 349 | 7 | 18th overall |
| Andre Ellington | 201 | 660 | 46 | 395 | 5 | 25th overall |
| Le’Veon Bell | 290 | 1361 | 83 | 854 | 11 | 29th overall |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 58 | 217 | 29 | 173 | 2 | NA (>163rd overall) |
| Bilal Powell | 33 | 141 | 11 | 92 | 1 | NA (>163rd overall) |
From the 2014 candidates, Le’Veon Bell and DeMarco Murray were the biggest hits of the year, finishing as the #1 overall RB and #2 overall RB in fantasy during the season (Bell was #1 in PPR leagues, and Murray #1 in standard leagues).
*Other Note(s): Giovani Bernard became firmly entrenched in a committee with Jeremy Hill this year, with Hill getting 222 carries for 1124 rushing yards.
2015 Candidates
In 2015, we saw Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Andre Ellington, and Giovani Bernard return as candidates and have CJ Anderson, Lamar Miller, and Devonta Freeman join them. Let’s see how they all ended up performing.
| Player | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Total Touchdowns | ADP |
| Le’Veon Bell | 113 | 556 | 24 | 136 | 3 | 2nd overall |
| Eddie Lacy | 187 | 758 | 20 | 188 | 5 | 3rd overall |
| CJ Anderson | 152 | 720 | 25 | 183 | 5 | 7th overall |
| Lamar Miller | 194 | 872 | 47 | 397 | 10 | 23rd overall |
| Andre Ellington | 45 | 289 | 15 | 148 | 3 | 53rd overall |
| Giovani Bernard | 154 | 730 | 49 | 472 | 2 | 85th overall |
| Devonta Freeman | 264 | 1061 | 73 | 578 | 14 | 104th overall |
Yikes. This was one of the roughest years for running backs in recent memory with only 7 running backs running for over 1000 yards: Adrian Peterson (1485), Doug Martin (1402), Todd Gurley (1106), Darren McFadden (1089), Chris Ivory (1070), Latavius Murray (1066), and the #1 PPR fantasy back Devonta Freeman (1061). But on the bright side, so far the formula is 2/2 on having the #1 overall fantasy back on its list.
*Other Note(s): Le’Veon Bell was injured after just 6 games. Eddie Lacy put on significant weight this season and never returned to his original form. CJ Anderson played through the season with an injury and split carries with Ronnie Hillman. Andre Ellington ended up losing the starting job to Chris Johnson and then later rookie David Johnson.
2016 Candidates
Luckily, the dip in overall fantasy RB production from 2015 proved to only be temporary, and we had some major breakout performances. In 2016, the returning candidates were Devonta Freeman and Giovani Bernard, and a bunch of newcomers in David Johnson, Latavius Murray, Melvin Gordon, Duke Johnson, TJ Yeldon, Charles Sims, and Javorius Allen join them. Here’s a look at how they all performed.
| Player | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Total Touchdowns | ADP |
| David Johnson | 293 | 1239 | 80 | 879 | 20 | 5th overall |
| Devonta Freeman | 227 | 1079 | 54 | 462 | 13 | 18th overall |
| Latavius Murray | 195 | 788 | 33 | 264 | 12 | 31st overall |
| Melvin Gordon | 254 | 997 | 41 | 419 | 12 | 47th overall |
| Giovani Bernard | 91 | 337 | 39 | 336 | 3 | 70th overall |
| Duke Johnson | 73 | 358 | 53 | 514 | 1 | 81st overall |
| TJ Yeldon | 130 | 465 | 50 | 312 | 2 | 92nd overall |
| Charles Sims | 51 | 149 | 24 | 190 | 2 | 102nd overall |
| Javorius Allen | 9 | 34 | 3 | 15 | 0 | NA (>168th overall) |
This season was a pretty strong one for the four highest-drafted “Mixon formula” backs (David Johnson, Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray, and Melvin Gordon), with David Johnson finishing as the #1 overall fantasy back (making this formula go 3/3 on having the #1 fantasy back on the list). Melvin Gordon was also a major success, putting up over 1400 yards from scrimmage in just 13 games.
*Other Note(s): Javorius “Buck” Allen was a healthy scratch in many games, failing to get playing time over Terrance West and Kenneth Dixon.
2017 Candidates
If there was one thing I was proud of in the 2017 season, it was predicting a major bounce-back year for Todd Gurley and watching him carry my team to my first fantasy championship. Overall, this year was particularly interesting. We saw a couple of pairs of teammates make the list (Devonta Freeman+Tevin Coleman and Isaiah Crowell+Duke Johnson) for the first time, as well as seven other candidates in David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, Ty Montgomery, Devontae Booker, and Jerick McKinnon. Gurley was the big hit from the 2017 candidates, but how did the rest of the candidates fare?
| Player | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Total Touchdowns | ADP |
| David Johnson | 11 | 23 | 6 | 67 | 0 | 1st overall |
| Devonta Freeman | 196 | 865 | 36 | 317 | 8 | 6th overall |
| Melvin Gordon | 284 | 1105 | 58 | 476 | 12 | 8th overall |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 242 | 983 | 26 | 269 | 9 | 10th overall |
| Todd Gurley | 279 | 1305 | 64 | 788 | 19 | 17th overall |
| Isaiah Crowell | 206 | 853 | 28 | 182 | 2 | 25th overall |
| Ty Montgomery | 71 | 273 | 23 | 170 | 4 | 37th overall |
| Tevin Coleman | 156 | 628 | 27 | 299 | 8 | 75th overall |
| Duke Johnson | 82 | 348 | 74 | 693 | 7 | 119th overall |
| Devontae Booker | 79 | 299 | 30 | 275 | 1 | NA (>211th overall) |
| Jerick McKinnon | 150 | 570 | 51 | 421 | 5 | NA (>211th overall) |
Todd Gurley made this formula 4/4 on having the #1 overall fantasy back on this list and helped many teams win championships with his fantasy playoff performance. This season also saw a few players drafted after pick 100 return great value in Duke Johnson and Jerick McKinnon.
*Other Note(s): The #1 fantasy RB of the 2016 season, David Johnson, only played in 1 game after fracturing his wrist in week 1. Despite a solid year, Devonta Freeman missed 2 games due to a concussion. Ezekiel Elliott put up over 1200 yards from scrimmage in just 10 games despite a 6 game suspension. Ty Montgomery only played in 8 games, losing his starting job and finishing 3rd on the Packers in carries behind Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones.
2018 Candidates
2018 was the year where we saw ADP begin to catch up with the “Mixon formula” candidates and epitomizes the importance of the formula with how the game of football has evolved in recent memory. Seven of the eleven players who made the list in the 2018 season ended up having an ADP in the top 25. The candidates? Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Melvin Gordon, Kareem Hunt, Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Kenyan Drake, Tarik Cohen, Duke Johnson, and Devontae Booker. Here’s how they fared.
| Player | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Total Touchdowns | ADP |
| Todd Gurley | 256 | 1251 | 59 | 580 | 21 | 1st overall |
| Alvin Kamara | 194 | 883 | 81 | 709 | 18 | 7th overall |
| Leonard Fournette | 133 | 439 | 22 | 185 | 6 | 8th overall |
| Melvin Gordon | 175 | 885 | 50 | 490 | 14 | 9th overall |
| Kareem Hunt | 181 | 824 | 26 | 378 | 14 | 10th overall |
| Christian McCaffrey | 219 | 1098 | 107 | 867 | 13 | 14th overall |
| Joe Mixon | 237 | 1168 | 43 | 296 | 9 | 21st overall |
| Kenyan Drake | 120 | 535 | 53 | 477 | 9 | 37th overall |
| Tarik Cohen | 99 | 444 | 71 | 725 | 8 | 98th overall |
| Duke Johnson | 40 | 201 | 47 | 429 | 3 | 135th overall |
| Devontae Booker | 34 | 183 | 38 | 275 | 1 | 150th overall |
Overall, it was a very strong year for the candidates. We saw the formula go 5/5 on having the #1 fantasy RB, with Christian McCaffrey in PPR and Todd Gurley in standard format.
*Other Note(s): Leonard Fournette struggled through injury and suspensions, appearing in only 8 games. Melvin Gordon was having his best season to date prior to an MCL sprain in week 12, and only appeared in 12 games. Kareem Hunt was having a phenomenal season in his 11 games prior to being cut due to an off the field incident. Joe Mixon missed 2 games with a knee injury.
2019 Candidates
This year had 13 candidates for the Mixon Formula and was the first year I dropped an article proposing the idea of the Mixon Formula. 8 of the 13 candidates would have likely cost you a 1st or 2nd round pick, and the other 5 were generally available for a price outside the top 40 picks. The 2019 candidates were: Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, James Conner, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Kerryon Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, Kenyan Drake, Tarik Cohen, Austin Ekeler, and Nyheim Hines.
| Player | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Total Touchdowns | ADP |
| Saquon Barkley | 217 | 1003 | 52 | 438 | 8 | 1.5 |
| Alvin Kamara | 171 | 797 | 81 | 533 | 6 | 2.5 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 287 | 1387 | 116 | 1005 | 19 | 2.5 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 301 | 1357 | 54 | 420 | 14 | 4.3 |
| James Conner | 116 | 464 | 34 | 251 | 7 | 8.1 |
| Joe Mixon | 278 | 1137 | 35 | 287 | 8 | 14.3 |
| Dalvin Cook | 250 | 1135 | 53 | 519 | 13 | 16.1 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 113 | 403 | 10 | 127 | 4 | 26.9 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 224 | 1011 | 35 | 196 | 7 | 43.7 |
| Kenyan Drake | 170 | 817 | 50 | 345 | 8 | 60.4 |
| Tarik Cohen | 64 | 213 | 79 | 456 | 3 | 73.1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 132 | 557 | 92 | 993 | 11 | 77.9 |
| Nyheim Hines | 52 | 199 | 44 | 320 | 2 | NA |
This was another strong year for the candidates. The formula once again had the number 1 overall fantasy running back on its list with Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey. James Conner and Kerryon Johnson were the big busts of the formula during this season, as both struggled with injuries throughout the year. The players on the list with mid/late round ADPs were the moneymakers of this formula with Phillip Lindsay, Kenyan Drake, and Austin Ekeler all-surpassing expectations.
(Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)