Top 30 Quarterbacks for 2021

Erik Smith ranks his top quarterbacks for fantasy football drafts ahead of the 2021 season. Updated 8/21.

These rankings are specifically tailored for one quarterback leagues, where replacement options are freely available on the waiver wire. In a superflex league, safer options like Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield get a boost, while riskier options like Trey Lance and Justin Fields take a dive.

 

Tier 1

 

1. Patrick Mahomes II (Kansas City Chiefs) – Mahomes is one of two active quarterbacks that has averaged more than 20 fantasy points per game over each of the past three seasons (and the other is Deshaun Watson). His 2018 output of 26 points per game has only been topped by 2019 Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott‘s five games from 2020. Mahomes enters his age 26 season with one of the league’s premier play-callers in Andy Reid, two elite pass-catchers that he has established chemistry with already, and a revamped offensive line. You can absolutely make a case for the rest of Tier 1 to finish as the QB1 overall, but Mahomes has a rare combination of floor and ceiling that is hard to pass up. His “down year” in 2019 involved an injury mid-season, and Mahomes still finished as the QB6 on a point per game basis. I wouldn’t take Mahomes in the first two rounds of your typical one quarterback league just because there are too many elite players at other more scarce positions, but Mahomes is on the table at the start of the third round of drafts.

 

2. Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) – For a team that won so many games (13) and found themselves in so many positive game scripts, the Bills threw the ball a ton last year. The Bills had a 1.52 pass to rush ratio, and when they did run, it was often Allen doing the dirty work. Allen had over 100 rushing attempts for the second-straight year, scored eight or more rushing touchdowns for the third straight year, and broke out in the passing game with 4,544 yards on 572 attempts and 37 passing touchdowns. It was a tour de force from Allen on the way to a QB1 finish (QB3 ppg), and entering his age 25 season he still has his best years ahead of him. There are certainly regression concerns anytime a player makes such a massive leap, but Allen was already averaging 18 points per game on primarily his rushing ability alone, so as long as he keeps most of his passing gains he will remain a top option. Even Allen’s touchdown rate (6.5%) ranked eighth in the league, so if we are going to project regression on his touchdown total, we need to regress the rest of the league’s top passers as well. We project him to be right in the mix for another QB1 overall season in 2021.

 

3. Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) – Our projections have Jackson topping 1,000 rushing yards for the third straight year, and that rushing floor provides him with remarkable consistency on a weekly basis. While Jackson’s 2020 season was a bit of a disappointment after his breakout QB1 season from 2019, he still managed to post 14 or more fantasy points in every start, including a final stretch where he averaged 27.6 points per game. That looks a lot like his league-winning 2019 where he averaged 27.7 points per game, the top mark among all quarterbacks over the past three seasons. The Ravens have committed to bolstering the receiving corps after drafting Rashod Bateman in the first round and signing Sammy Watkins, and with Mark Ingram out of town, the backfield is actually less crowded than in the past, making it hard to imagine that Jackson is going to run any less in 2021. And while Jackson’s passing ability is often criticized, and it certainly doesn’t look pretty at times, we are still talking about a quarterback with a career touchdown rate of 7.2% and a respectable enough 7.5 yards per attempt in the air. Keep drafting Jackson as an elite quarterback option, and there’s even room for growth if this passing attack finally clicks.

 

4. Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals) – Watching the Cardinals’ offense isn’t pretty, in large part due to the frustrating play-calling of head coach Kliff Kingsbury. But it is hard to argue with Murray’s fantasy results, as he jumped to QB5 on a point per game basis in just his second year in the NFL. We project Murray as the QB2 in 2021 with an elite combination of passing and rushing ability, and the Cardinals have bolstered their weapons in the passing game with the additions of rookie Rondale Moore and a dart throw on veteran receiver A.J. Green. Murray did suffer an injury that sapped his rushing ability for a stretch of 2020, and health is always going to be a concern with a 5’10” quarterback that runs as much as he does (226 carries across his first two seasons). But just look at the first nine games of 2020 where Murray rushed for an absurd 10 total rushing touchdowns, and ask yourself if you want to miss out on what could be coming from Murray. Let’s just hope that his coach has another level to jump to, or we may be waiting for a coaching change for Murray’s next gear.

 

Tier 2

 

5. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) – Rodgers’ 9% touchdown rate from 2020 sticks out like a sore thumb, with Russell Wilson ranking second all the way down at a 7.2% touchdown rate. Rodgers obviously has a better chance at a high touchdown rate than almost every other quarterback, but 9% is going to be tough for even Rodgers to repeat. This was only the second time Rodgers has hit a TD rate this high in his 13 year NFL career, and he’s had just two other seasons topping 7%. Even with that outlier touchdown season, Rodgers was “just” QB4 on a point per game basis in 2020, and his lack of rushing ability is the primary culprit there. Rodgers is the type of quarterback to let fall in drafts, and in leagues where drafters were scared off from the offseason drama I’ve been scooping him up at a discount. But I wouldn’t pay the asking price on Rodgers, especially if you can get another quarterback from this tier a round or three later.

 

6. Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers) – Herbert blew us all away in year one, showcasing all of the athleticism that we knew he possessed while averaging over 22 fantasy points per game, good for QB8 on the season. There’s a new coaching staff in town that provides hope for the Chargers to be a better real-life team, but we will need to wait and see what that means for Herbert’s fantasy stock. Herbert averaged 39.7 passing attempts per game in 2020, the fourth-highest mark in the league, and I would expect that number to come down just a bit. But he has room to make gains in the touchdown department as he ranked 14th among qualified quarterbacks with a 5.2% touchdown rate, and his 7.3 yards per attempt ranked 18th. So a lower volume, higher efficiency season seems possible, and coupled with an improved offensive line and some rushing ability (234 yards and five touchdowns across 15 games) Herbert is one of my favorite quarterbacks to draft in 2021. Unfortunately, everyone else seems in on him, so be prepared to take him a bit earlier than his ADP might suggest.

 

7. Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys) – Prescott was in the first tier up until his training camp shoulder injury, and the injury probably isn’t anything to worry about from a long-term perspective. However, coupled with his return from a serious ankle injury and his health is just enough of a question to move him down into this extremely strong second tier of quarterbacks. Prescott lit the world on fire through five weeks of last season, averaging 27 fantasy points per game, a number that would make even Mahomes jealous. With a stacked wide receiving corps, Prescott broke out on elite passing volume, averaging a hard-to-comprehend 44.4 attempts per game. Ben Roethlisberger was a distant second with 40.5 attempts per game. It’s reasonable to wonder if the Cowboys want to put Prescott through that same workload in 2021, however, and I wonder if he will chip in his usual 300 rushing yards and three to six rushing touchdowns coming off of that major ankle injury. Prescott was a 21 point per game quarterback in 2019, which would have put him in the QB10 range last year, so if last year was his peak then maybe we are overpaying a bit. But with what projects to be a below-average defense, an elite receiving corps, and a healthy offensive line, the Cowboys profile to be among the scoring leaders in the NFL if their signal-caller can play all 16 games, making Prescott a quarterback belonging near the top of his position.

 

8. Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) – Wilson finished as the QB6 on a ppg basis last year, but that number doesn’t do justice to the roller coaster he took his fantasy managers on during the course of the season. Wilson scored 21.9 points or more in each of his first eight games, including four games over 30 points, and seemed primed for an MVP season. Then the offense fell apart down the stretch, and Wilson topped the 20 point threshold just twice in his final eight games. Out is offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and in is former Rams’ passing game coordinator Shane Waldron, and we don’t exactly know what that means for the offense. Waldron has never called plays, outside of in the preseason, and we know that head coach Pete Carroll will be in his ear touting the benefits of the run game. Regardless of how it shakes out, Wilson has two excellent receivers in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, has thrown for 30 or more touchdowns in each of the past four seasons, and regularly chips in 300 to 600 yards rushing every year. He’s a safe quarterback option at the end of the elite top two tiers, and as he showed in the first half of last year, he can carry a fantasy team for stretches.

 

Tier 3

 

9. Tom Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – Brady just wrapped up a 40 touchdown season at age 43, his highest number 2007, so we should officially stop predicting his fall until we see the retirement papers signed and filed. Brady was rejuvenated with a good receiving corps for the first time in forever, and the results were stunning, as Brady caught fire down the stretch with 341 or more passing yards in five of his final seven games and 20 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. Brady put up a QB11 season on a point per game basis and a QB8 season overall despite learning a brand new offense and dealing with frequent injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at receiver. There’s a chance that Brady is even better this season, but his utter lack of rushing ability does cap his upside. So keep that in mind when you draft him, you’re getting a rock-solid weekly option, but a 2020 Josh Allen breakout isn’t going to be in his range of outcomes.

 

10. Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams) – Our projections are down on Stafford, putting him as QB22 on the year, and while that is certainly his floor, it is easy to see how a projection system could produce that outcome and illustrates why rankings and projections aren’t the same things. Stafford ranked just QB21 in fantasy points per game last year, and while he was on his way to an excellent fantasy season in 2019 before his injury, we haven’t seen a top 12 finish for Stafford since 2017. Coupled with the fact that Stafford is a near-zero on the ground (his last rushing touchdown was in 2016), and we need elite volume or a spiked touchdown rate for Stafford to blow up. And that is certainly a possibility in a Sean McVay offense. We’ve seen Jared Goff finish between QB7 and QB18 in this system, and before last season his worst finish was QB13, which is Stafford’s floor most likely. But this offense hasn’t been the same since the heyday of Todd Gurley, and we will have to see how much life Stafford can inject back into things. I like the weapons, I like the coaching, and Stafford is certainly talented, so a large touchdown total is definitely in play. Just remember, as always, that quarterbacks without rushing upside need everything to go right to threaten for QB1 status, and even then it often isn’t enough. I expect in most leagues, other drafters will take Stafford much earlier than I am willing to, and he won’t be among my most rostered quarterbacks.

 

11. Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles) – It will be fascinating to see how Hurts fares after teams have the offseason to prepare for him, as he was a fantasy force down the stretch of 2020. Hurts started weeks 14-17 taking over for Carson Wentz, though he was controversially pulled midway through the meaningless (for the Eagles) Week 17 game against Washington. But in his three full games, Hurts scored 19, 38, and 21 fantasy points, and even chipped in 17 via two rushing touchdowns in limited Week 17 action. Hurts topped 300 yards in two of his three full games, averaged nearly 80 rushing yards per game, and gave himself a shot to become the Eagles franchise quarterback as the clear starter for 2021. There were questions of Hurts’ passing ability and pro-readiness coming out of the draft in 2020, leading him to last until pick 53 overall. And we don’t know how successful this coaching staff will be with first-time head coach Nick Sirianni entering the picture. But Hurts is worth a shot in typical quarterback scoring formats due to that rushing upside, and things would really need to go badly for the Eagles to turn to backups Joe Flacco or Nick Mullens. There are certainly red flags with his 52% completion percentage across 148 NFL attempts, but for fantasy purposes, a poor man’s Lamar Jackson would be a valuable quarterback profile.

 

12. Ryan Tannehill (Tennesee Titans) – Tannehill has been extraordinarily efficient over the past two seasons, to the point where we have to consider if this is his new normal. Tannehill was third among qualified passers with a 6.9% touchdown rate, after ranking second in 2019 with a 7.7% touchdown rate. He lead all quarterbacks with 9.6 yards per attempt in his break-out 2019 season and followed it up with the fourth-best rate in 2020 at 8.7 yards per attempt. The primary question for 2021 is how much of a blow the loss of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to the Falcons proves to be because otherwise, Tannehill looks set to match his tenth-ranked finish in fantasy points per game. Tannehill now has the most physically imposing receiving corps in the league with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, and if the Titans ever scale back their rushing with Henry, we could even see an increase in volume. The 33-year-old Tannehill has chipped in 11 rushing touchdowns over his past 28 games, and while that has also helped separate him from other quarterbacks, that could also be seen as an additional source of potential regression, as those touchdowns came on just 86 carries. I’m willing to bet on Tannehill for one more season, and he makes an excellent option if you choose to bypass the early-round options at the position.

 

13. Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) – Lawrence is the first quarterback whose ranking highlights my strategy at the position. We should be chasing upside first and foremost, as some of the quarterbacks further down the list will be waiting for you on waivers, ready to provide those 15-18 fantasy points per game if you need them. Lawrence is a classic example of a hyped prospect that we’ve begun to under-appreciate, but let’s not lose sight of the fact that he is 6’6″ 220 lbs, runs a 4.6 40-yard dash, and has been compared to Andrew Luck as a prospect. We’ve seen enough quarterbacks succeed in their rookie seasons lately (Kyler Murray in 2019, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert in 2020) that we shouldn’t be scared off of Lawrence, although head coach Urban Meyer is a bit of a wildcard in this team’s 2021 success. Still, Lawrence completed nearly 70% of his passes in his junior year, improved his yards per attempt in each season at Clemson, and rushed for 17 touchdowns combined over his final 25 games. That rushing ability is key for his fantasy prospects, as always, and this Jaguars defense seems prepared to force Jacksonville to play from behind most weeks, upping Lawrence’s passing volume potential. It’s always tough to project a rookie, but we project Lawrence as the QB11 on the season, which is right where I rank him as well. There is some nice upside here, and I believe the floor to be solid as well, and Lawrence could be challenging for Tier 2 status in 2022 fantasy drafts.

 

14.  Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) – I was extremely impressed with the rookie season Burrow produced in 2020, as he produced 17.4 fantasy points per game while getting battered behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. Unfortunately, that line led to a major knee injury in Week 11, and while Burrow appears to be on track to start Week 1, I have some concerns in ranking him too highly.

The Bengals went the flashy route at pick 5 of the NFL Draft, taking former Burrow teammate Ja’Marr Chase and bypassing offensive line help. The Bengals chose to wait until the second round to address the position when they selected Jackson Carman out of Clemson, and the rookie will need to transition quickly from his previous position of tackle to start Week 1 at guard. Otherwise, the Bengals are counting on former first-round tackle Jonah Williams to stay healthy, something he hasn’t been able to do in his first two NFL seasons, and veteran free-agent addition Riley Reiff to be a stabilizing presence. The offensive line should be better but looks to be one injury away from being right back to where it was in 2020, a scary proposition for Burrow.

Burrow will face the tough Ravens and Steelers defenses four times in 2021 as always, with two more games against Myles Garrett and an improved Browns defense. Add in matchups against potentially tough pass rushes in Chicago, San Francisco, and Denver, and I worry about Burrow’s week-to-week consistency. Burrow’s 40 attempts per game ranked third in the NFL in 2020, and I would expect that to come down in order to keep him upright in 2021. And we may lose some of the minor boosts we received from Burrow’s rushing ability as well. I’ll let others draft Burrow in 2021, with eyes on getting back on board in 2022.

 

Tier 4

 

15. Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) – Tua largely failed to impress during his rookie season in the NFL, but he deserves a pass coming off of his serious hip injury at Alabama in 2019. When you plug Tua in for 17 starts with his impressive supporting cast of playmakers, it’s easy for the projection systems to love him. We project him as QB9, and while that is certainly at the top range of his outcomes, it helps shine a light on the opportunity for Tua if he makes a leap year two. He now has Will Fuller V, Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, and Myles Gaskin to get the ball to in the passing game, and his game manager style could do wonders with those explosive playmakers. We are beginning to see some cracks in the foundation already, however, as Fuller has already shown up on the injury front with a foot injury, while Waddle reported hasn’t fully recovered from ankle surgery nine months ago. Add in Parker and Preston Williams opening camp on the PUP list, and a Tua breakout is looking less likely. I’ll leave him here for now, as we are still over a month out from the regular-season opener. But much of Tua’s potential is centered around an explosive supporting cast, and that cast is currently hurting.

 

16. Trey Lance (San Franciso 49ers) – If you’re in a two-quarterback league you may want to pass on Lance at this spot, as we simply don’t know when he will start. But we are beginning to get interesting reports out of 49ers camp, and the thought of the mobile Lance in a Kyle Shanahan offense is enough to get late-round quarterback drafters like me excited. We really only have one year of college results to judge Lance on, and he played for North Dakota State in the unheralded Missouri Valley Football Conference. But it is impossible to overlook his 28 touchdowns and zero interceptions from 2019, along with his 1,100 yards rushing and 14 rushing touchdowns from his sophomore season. Rushing is king for quarterbacks in fantasy football, and we’ve seen Shanahan torch the league with a mobile rookie quarterback in Robert Griffin III in the past. At this stage in drafts, you should be chasing pure upside at quarterback. Take Lance, hope that he starts early on, and move on if your roster needs to use the depth for something else.

 

17. Justin Fields (Chicago Bears) – Much like Lance, we don’t know when Fields will first start a game for the Bears. But the upside is real, as he rushed for 1,133 yards across 34 games between Georgia and Ohio State, and while college numbers can certainly be inflated, his 67 to 9 touchdown to interception ratio is mighty impressive. We’ve seen Andy Dalton miss games over each of the past three seasons due to injury, so even if the Bears want to slow play this, they may be unable to. Mitchell Trubisky managed capable fantasy seasons in this offense despite his struggles, including nearly 19 points per game in 2018. There’s no reason Fields can’t succeed in fantasy leagues with his rushing ability from day one, making him a higher upside option late in drafts.

 

18. Jamies Winston (New Orleans Saints) – I’ve been drafting a lot of both Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill in drafts, oftentimes together, and ranking them back to back feels appropriate. There’s still the worry that they form a rare quarterback committee that hurts the value of both of them, but for now, I’m drafting them both and hoping that one runs away with the job. This is simply betting on Sean Payton to figure things out post-Drew Bress, and Winston has the biggest fantasy upside of the two options. Winston put up a healthy 19 fantasy points per game in his last full season despite throwing an outrageous 30 interceptions, and I’m betting that Payton can reign that in a bit. Winston lacks rushing upside so let’s not confuse him for a league winner, but he’s super cheap in two-quarterback leagues and is worth a roster spot in one-quarterback leagues with super deep benches. Losing Michael Thomas already hurts, however, as he’s left with a lackluster supporting cast. But I still like Winston’s potential more than some of the safer options later while, so I’ll stick him here as we await the winner of the starting quarterback battle for the Saints.

 

19. Taysom Hill (New Orleans Saints) –  Taysom Hill lost the competition and begins the year as the backup. It’s easy to laugh off Taysom Hill as a non-traditional quarterback entering his age 31 season with a chance to start for the first time, but we can’t just ignore Hill’s performance last year. Hill started Weeks 11 through 14 in place of an injured Drew Brees, scoring 24, 18, 24, and 20 fantasy points in his trial run. Hill racked up double-digit carries in three of those games, Threw for four total touchdowns and rushed for four more, and on the year as a whole completed 73% of his passes. And sure, he likely won’t air the ball out like most quarterbacks, but he did reach 230 yards passing in three of four starts, with the lone exception being the infamous Week 12 game against Denver where the Broncos were forced to start a wide receiver at quarterback. Hill will be involved in the offense regardless, but if he wins the job outright he will produce meaningful fantasy points from day one. The league may figure him out eventually, but I’m willing to enjoy the ride while it lasts.

 

Tier 5

 

20. Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) – As more and more mobile quarterbacks pass Ryan on the rankings due to his lack of rushing upside, it gets harder and harder to consider drafting him as your starting quarterback. I’m intrigued by Arthur Smith running the show, as we saw Tannehill break out under his coaching, and this figures to be a high-volume passing offense for yet another year. But Ryan has now produced back-to-back sub-18 fantasy point per game seasons, including last year’s mark of 17.65 that ranked 15th overall. His 2018 22.2 points per game probably represent his ceiling, and while that is a solid number he still would have ranked as just QB8 with those numbers in 2020. He’s much more valuable in a two-quarterback league, as he has incredibly missed just 3 of a possible 208 career games and provides a consistent presence for your QB2 position. Otherwise, we need a spiked touchdown rate from Ryan to be all that exciting, and this offense likely will miss Julio Jones at times, making that spiked rate less realistic.

 

21. Kirk Cousins (Minnesota Vikings) – For all of the grief that we give Cousins, he’s actually a really good quarterback. He posted some of the best numbers of his career last year with a 68% completion rate, a career-high 6.8% touchdown rate, 8.3 yards per attempt (his highest as a starter), and a quarterback rating of 105.0. In two-quarterback leagues, he’s right up there with Matt Ryan at QB15, as stability and availability become more important. But in a single quarterback league, his QB12 finish in a season with a spiked touchdown rate just isn’t as valuable. With no rushing ability to speak of, Cousins is going to need prime Randy Moss to join Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen before I draft him in a typical league.

 

22. Baker Mayfield (Cleveland Browns) – Mayfield’s supporters aren’t going to like this ranking, but the fact remains that his rookie season is still his best fantasy performance of his young career. 24 active quarterbacks have produced a better fantasy season than Mayfield’s best over the past three seasons, and in a low volume passing offense without any rushing upside, Mayfield has been around 15 fantasy points per game over the past two seasons. He will need to push towards 40 passing touchdowns to have a big-time fantasy year, and he’s still yet to reach 30 touchdowns through his three NFL seasons.

 

23. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Washington Football Team) – Fitzmagic enters his age 39 season as the starter in Washington, and his supporting cast is reason for excitement. Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Logan Thomas, and Antonio Gibson are a formidable trio, and Fitzpatrick will bring a downfield element that this team was missing in 2020. The QB18 on a point per game basis last year in Miami, Fitz recorded a career-high 68% completion percentage but disappointed in the touchdown department, throwing for 13 compared to eight interceptions. He’s never reached 4,000 yards passing, topped 30 touchdowns once back in 2015, and is a zero on the ground outside of the occasional touchdown rush. Fitzpatrick will be a solid bye week streamer, but expecting a breakout is pushing it.

 

24. Zach Wilson (New York Jets) – If our past evaluations of rookie quarterbacks are any indication (see: Herbert, Justin), Wilson has a chance to make this ranking look really bad in hindsight. Wison and fellow rookie Elijah Moore have been making noise in camp, and I like the coaching for once in New York. Ultimately, I expect this to be a year of building a foundation for the Jets, so gaudy passing statistics seem unlikely. Look for offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur to use run game concepts from San Francisco as he emphasizes the run, and hopefully, Wilson can revive the career of Denzel Mims while also forming a connection with Moore. There’s hope in New York finally, but I’d like to see it before buying in for fantasy purposes.

 

25. Daniel Jones (New York Giants) – Jones fell back from an already up and down rookie season, throwing 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions across 14 games in 2020. He missed two weeks with a hamstring injury and was ineffective in a few more due to the limited mobility, capping off an altogether disappointing year. Jones at least provides some points with his legs, rushing for 423 yards last year, though much of that output came on one glorious, long run. The addition of Kenny Golladay should help, as will the return of Saquon Barkley, so Jones has an opportunity to prove himself in his third year. Our projections have him as the QB16, which makes him a nice value in two-quarterback leagues. But he’s off the radar in a typical one quarterback league, outside of a streaming option.

 

26. Cam Newton (New England Patriots) – Cam Newton was released and is currently without a team. Newton rises up the rankings after a solid preseason showing. His rushing ability makes him an appealing late-round quarterback target if he can look healthier than he did over much of 2020. Mac Jones is waiting to take over, but don’t forget the early-season stretch from Newton last year, most notably his 36 point explosion against the Seahawks in Week 2. Newton registered 9 or more rushes in 11 of his 15 games, rushed for 12 touchdowns, and was a startable fantasy quarterback with almost no passing ability. If we could see a positive step with his passing, he could be a legitimate bounce-back candidate in 2021. But Jones will be waiting to take over all season, keeping Newton lower in the rankings.

 

Tier 6

 

27. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) – It took Roethlisberger 40.5 attempts per game to finish as the QB14 on a points per game basis last year, and entering his age 39 season I’m not sure there is much higher to go in the rankings. The Steelers clearly want to run the ball more, as evidenced by the addition of Najee Harris in the first round of the NFL Draft, so I would expect those attempts to decrease. He’s a streamer at home, and not much more.

 

28. Derek Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) – Carr’s game, unfortunately, doesn’t translate well to standard fantasy scoring, as his high completion percentage and low interception totals are largely wasted. Carr was the QB19 in points per game last year, so unless you play in a league that rewards completions and penalized incompletions, like the Scott Fish Bowl, he can be left on waivers.

 

29. Jared Goff (Detroit Lions) – Goff has averaged a pedestrian 16 fantasy points per game over the past two seasons in a fantasy-friendly environment with the Rams, and now will have starting receivers like Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman in what figures to be a conservative Lions offense. The Lions have a chance to have a really good offensive line, and I could see them being more competitive than many might expect, but I don’t expect that to translate to fantasy points for Goff.

 

30. Sam Darnold (Carolina Panthers) – Darnold has a long way to go to dig himself out of his early career struggles, and Carolina doesn’t project to have a good offensive line, an issue for Darnold in the past. I would expect Darnold’s rehabilitation to be a multi-year process, so I’ll be passing on Darnold even in two-quarterback leagues.

 

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