Tier 10: The “Mustard Seed” Tier (Continued)
The path to there if you have the faith to hold on.
151. J.K. Dobbins, RB, DEN (RB51)
If J.K. Dobbins could just stay healthy, man, he’s a baller. His season was cut short again by a knee injury, but he was great in Denver. He ranked in the top 10 in yards per carry, rushing yards per game, explosive run rate, and missed tackles forced per attempt, and was third overall in explosive run rate. The Broncos’ backfield has snip-snapped all offseason, and Dobbins looked like the winner after re-signing in Denver. Then Sean Payton went and drafted Jonah Coleman. Coleman profiles as the most complete back in the room, yet somehow more people are talking about how this hurts the rookie than how it tanks Dobbins’ value. I liked Dobbins as a solid RB3/FLEX before the draft, but now we’re looking at a three-headed committee with a 27-year-old back who’s had more injuries than I’ve had bad fantasy takes. Dobbins is still talented, but unless his ADP falls off a cliff, he’s someone I’m probably avoiding in redraft.
152. Jalen McMillan, WR, TB (WR55)
Jalen McMillan missed a significant chunk of the season due to a preseason neck injury, but returned in Week 15 to lead the Bucs in yards per route run, yards per target, and yards per reception. With Evans leaving town to head to San Fran, McMillian is in line to play a major role in the Bucs offense in 2026. A jump into the top 125 is attainable.
153. Khalil Shakir, WR, BUF (WR56)
Khalil Shakir is the most Romeo Doubs receiver that ever James Jonesed. He has no business operating as the top option for Josh Allen, but that’s what he did once again in 2025. Shakir ranked first in yards after contact per reception with 3.61, but he profiles more as a complementary receiver. Buffalo indeed brought in help in DJ Moore, and Shakir remains a solid but boring WR3/4.
154. RJ Harvey, RB, DEN (RB52)
J.K. Dobbins was once again proving people wrong by holding off rookie RJ Harvey and having an excellent season in Denver before a season-ending injury in Week 10. Harvey stepped in and had some success, but he wasn’t particularly efficient or explosive. Dobbins ended the season with 5.05 yards per carry (7th), 77.2 rushing yards per game (6th), and a 7.8% explosive run rate (3rd). Harvey’s stats were, um, something. He had 3.7 yards per carry (42nd), 31.8 rushing yards per game (45th), and a 2.7% explosive run rate (42nd). Dobbins is back, the Broncos traded for Jaylen Waddle AAAAAND they drafted Jonah Coleman. The Felicio full fade of Harvey is on for 2026.
155. Tyler Allgeier, RB, ARI (RB53)
It might be worth stashing Tyler Allgeier or Trey Benson, considering Conner’s age and injury history. An injury or two can whittle this backfield down from four to two rather quickly. But it’s only worth the gamble if the cost is free.99.
UPDATE (9/4/26): The path for touches is clearer without Benson in town, but it’s still crowded in Arizona.
156. Sam Darnold, QB, SEA (QB25)
Sam Darnold proved his Minnesota resurgence wasn’t a fluke, finishing as QB14 in total points and leading the Seahawks to the #1 seed in the NFC. My gripe with Darnold from a fantasy perspective is that he’s not very good when he faces pressure, which is still true. But the Seahawks’ rebuilt offensive line made major strides and more often than not kept Darnold upright. Darnold faced pressure on just 31.7% of his dropbacks, fourth lowest among quarterbacks who played at least ten games. Darnold had some low-volume games that keep him from being a consistent starter, but he’s a borderline Superflex starter who’s perfect to pair with another quarterback to mix and match based on opponent.
157. Jauan Jennings, WR, MIN (WR57)
After back-to-back WR3 seasons in San Fran, Jauan Jennings wound up in Minnesota. Honestly, I don’t value him much differently than in the past few seasons. The offense should be close to as potent as the Niners (at the very least, it’ll be better without #nine), but Jennings has a cloudier path to targets.
158. Dylan Sampson, RB, CLE (RB54)
The reincarnation of Duke Johnson with a ceiling of a bye week fill-in FLEX.
159. Stefon Diggs, WR, WAS (WR58)
Stefon Diggs played 60% of offensive snaps in just three games this season but bounced back in New England to finish as a WR2. Diggs finished inside the top 10 in yards per route run and had 1,000 receiving yards for the seventh time in his career. But at age 33 at the start of the season, the upside is nonexistent. The self-proclaimed “best WR2 in the league” doesn’t have a team, so his rank is extremely fluid.
UPDATE (9/4/26): Signing with Washington at least gives him Jayden Daniels and a real path to fantasy relevance. He’s a rock-solid FLEX with upside for spike weeks.
160. Adonai Mitchell, WR, NYJ (WR59)
AD Mitchell had a bit of a career revival less than two years into it with the Jets. Geno Smith signing in New York bodes well for Mitchell becoming a volatile FLEX option.
161. Jerry Jeudy, WR, CLE (WR60)
Outside of a random week with a touchdown, Jerry Jeudy was a complete non-factor for fantasy purposes and will continue to be until the Browns get their quarterback situation figured out. The additions of KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston make Jeudy even more non-factor-er.
162. Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI (TE23)
Dallas Goedert bounced back bigly in 2025. He finished as TE6 in points per game, but was heavily reliant on a career-high 11 touchdown catches. Goedert is a solid borderline TE1, but his days of pushing for the top five are over.
Tier 11: The “Mandela Effect” Tier
You knew they were good, but it’s like they never existed.
163. Tre Harris, WR, LAC (WR61)
Tre Harris made a couple of flashy catches but was overall a non-factor in his rookie season. The Chargers had a lot of mouths to feed, and an offense like that let Justin Herbert get eaten for lunch, so the subpar rookie season doesn’t come as much of a surprise. Keenan Allen is a free agent, but even if he returns, he turns 63 this offseason and faded down the stretch in 2025. Harris is a nice post-hype sleeper who can likely be had for next to nothing. I’m willing to take a shot on any piece of a Mike McDaniel offense.
164. Troy Franklin, WR, DEN (WR62)
Troy Franklin appeared to have stolen the WR1 role from Courtland Sutton during a midseason stretch in which he ranked as WR8 from Weeks 7-11. Sutton reclaimed the role after the Broncos’ bye, but it was still an overall successful season for Franklin, finishing as the WR31 and tied for the fifth most red zone targets in the league. Sutton is creeping up in age, but with the addition of Waddle, Franklin’s chances of taking over as Denver’s WR1 are all but shot.
165. Jordyn Tyson, WR, NO (WR63, ▼112)
Jordyn Tyson is the third of the three amigos regularly touted as the top receivers in the 2026 class. Tyson may have been the consensus WR1 had it not been for a less-than-stellar injury history, missing time to injury in all of his seasons. Coached by Hall of Famer Hines Ward, Tyson is unsurprisingly a great blocker. His video game-like twitchiness stems in part from his lateral quickness and phenomenal footwork. Tyson’s been the alpha at Arizona State the past two seasons, and has zero issue coming down with the ball when everyone on and off the field knows the ball is coming to him. He has good ball skills, is not afraid of contact, and excels at contested catches. He’s a bit of an unpolished route runner and has just one season with 1,000 receiving yards, but he can line up all over the field. Tyson is widely criticized as a one-trick pony versus press coverage and needs to expand his moveset. High floor, but lower ceiling than you’d like from a player with his likely ADP. Before the AJ Brown trade out of Philly, the former Sun Devil was my rookie WR1. QB Tyler Shough has a strong arm, and Kellen Moore is one of the best offensive minds in the league. Tyson should start from day 1 on a team with a porous defense that plays half its games indoors.
UPDATE (9/4/26): PLEASE let this guy get healthy. He should still be drafted and stashed, as he’s expected back sometime in October.
166. Jaylin Noel, WR, HOU (WR64)
Jaylin Noel had back-to-back 11-fantasy-point games in the middle of the season, popped up for a 14-point Week 17, and was never heard from again.
167. Isaac TeSlaa, WR, DET (WR65)
Isaac TeSlaa does nothing but catch touchdown passes, with six of his 16 receptions being scores. He’s fun to watch and a great story, but without knowing what type of offense the Lions will run, it’s hard to gauge the fantasy value of a team’s WR3 alongside an elite pass-catching tight end.
168. Fernando Mendoza, QB, LV (QB26)
Despite leading Indiana… yes, Indiana… to its first National Championship while also winning the Heisman Trophy, Fernando Mendoza profiles more as an efficient, game-managing quarterback than an electric playmaker. Don’t get me wrong, Mendoza is great. He offers a high floor with a high football IQ, quick decision-making, and spot-on accuracy, but his arm strength is meh. The Raiders brought in Khols Cash King Kirk Cousins mainly to mentor Mendoza, but they could opt to start the season with the old man under center. Mendoza’s the perfect fit for the Raiders from an NFL standpoint, but not someone I’m excited to draft in fantasy. He’ll be a late-round lottery ticket pick for those who wait on a quarterback in redraft. A decent comp for him in my eyes is Alex Smith (complimentary).
169. Bryce Young, QB, CAR (QB27)
Bryce Young is one of the oddest fantasy quarterbacks I’ve ever seen play the game. He had nine starts with one or fewer touchdown passes, including a couple of three-touchdown performances, including one game with over 400 passing yards! The Panthers have exercised his fifth-year option, so he’ll be back in Carolina at least for one more season. But I’m avoiding him in anything outside of Superflex leagues.
170. Malachi Fields, WR, NYG (WR66)
Malachi Fields is the prototypical X receiver: he has the size, strength, and deep-ball tracking skills to come down with the back-shoulder catch with his eyes closed. What keeps him from elite prospect status is his lack of initial burst off the line and struggles with separation. A solid pick for the Giants that I’m more excited about as a Giants fan than a fantasy football analyst. Fields profiles as the perfect complement to Malik Nabers, but the upside is limited on a likely run-first team and Nabers (and Isaiah Likely?) ahead of him in the pecking order.
171. Michael Penix Jr., QB, ATL (QB28)
The Falcons hiring Kevin Stefanski seemed like great news for the long-term development of Michael Penix Jr. at first. But now Penix has a quarterback competition to pair with his recovery from a Week 11 Torn ACL if he wants to get back under center for the Falcons anytime soon. Tua Tagovailoa signed with Atlanta this offseason to fight for the starting job, but as of mid-July, Penix had only been cleared for individual drills and seven-on-seven work. Stefanski has made it known the starting job is up for grabs and likely will remain so throughout training camp and into the preseason, rendering both Penix and Tua nearly impossible to project for 2026. With Stefanski at the helm, whoever winds up starter is worth a look with the weapons in ATL. But it’ll be a while before we know who that is.
172. Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, SF (WR67)
Deebo Samuel will spend just one season in Washington, but he did enough to show he can still be a versatile piece for any offense. Samuel scored 17 or more points in five games, but his fantasy value will depend heavily on his landing spot. In the right situation, he can be fantasy viable in 2026. The longer Deebo remains a free agent, the more concerned I am that he’ll have any fantasy value in 2026. He may have to settle for little to no role in an offense.
UPDATE (9/4/26): He’s not the Deebo of a few years ago, but a reunion with Kyle Shanahan is much more interesting than just about anywhere else he could have wound up.
173. Rashid Shaheed, WR, SEA (WR68)
Rashid Shaheed hasn’t made much of a fantasy impact outside of special teams since heading to Seattle from New Orleans, but that’s not a surprise, as most receivers who change teams midseason don’t. Heading back to Seattle is a disappointing outcome for his fantasy potential, though.
174. Darius Slayton, WR, NYG (WR69)
Darius Slayton has had just one season with a yards per catch under 14.5, and should have a similar role/fantasy value as last season.
175. Matthew Golden, WR, GB (WR70)
Matthew Golden is ranked here simply on his first-round pedigree and upside on a team that loves to throw the deep ball.
176. Romeo Doubs, WR, NE (WR71)
Romeo Doubs is the most Khalil Shakir receiver that ever James Jonesed. Doubs had some moments early in the 2025 season, but only scored over 10 points three times after Week 8. He’s a safe floor, low-ceiling player who will get two or three games over 15 points a season. Doubs signing with New England is a net-zero move for his fantasy value.
177. Jacoby Brissett, QB, ARI (QB29)
The Cardinals committed to Jacoby Brissett as their starter in 2026, a surprising move but one that makes sense with the depth of the quarterback prospects in the 2027 class. Then Brissett decided it was time for a contract dispute in hopes of more guaranteed money. You read that right. Jacoby Brissett, contract dispute. The safe floor for Jacoby Brissett started to get a little creaky with the Cardinals’ selection of Carson Beck, and the addition of Gardner Minshew made them even louder. When he’s under center, Brissett should once again be steady Eddie as a fantasy producer. But the contract dispute, paired with Beck almost surely seeing the field at some point this season, makes Brissett a riskier pick by the minute. Arizona needs to see if the third-rounder can show enough to be considered the team’s QB of the future before next year’s draft, which is expected to have a surplus of elite QB prospects, including some guy named Arch Manning.
178. LeQuint Allen Jr., RB, JAC (RB55)
So you’re telling me there’s a chance! The Jags didn’t add a back in the draft, and Allen is on the radar as a late-round handcuff pick.
179. Chris Rodriguez Jr., RB, JAC (RB56)
With the departure of Travis Etienne and no other additions to the backfield, Chris Rodriguez should have a role in the Jags offense from day one. Just not a large one.
180. Geno Smith, QB, NYJ (QB30)
Geno Smith is the best quarterback the Jets have had since… Geno Smith. A reunion that makes sense, but it’s not overly exciting. Smith should produce much closer to his Seattle numbers than Las Vegas. The Jets do have some potential in their pass catchers outside of Garrett Wilson in the returning Mason Taylor and AD Mitchell, not to mention the addition of first-round picks TE Kenyon Sadiq and WR Omar Cooper Jr. (who the Jets traded up for). I’m avoiding in 1QB, but Smith could be a solid spot starter in good matchups.
181. Omar Cooper Jr., WR, NYJ (WR72)
Get the ball into the hands of Omar Cooper Jr., and magic happens. Cooper has incredible hands and is arguably the most talented YAC machine in the class, thanks to his ability to make defenders miss. I still love the talent, but man, to land on the Jets is no bueno. Garrett Wilson will easily remain the WR1, TE phenom Kenyon Sadiq was also drafted by the Jets, and a 23-year-old AD Mitchell is still there to siphon targets. His explosiveness keeps him on the fantasy radar, but he’ll be extremely inconsistent, especially with the Jets’ quarterback situation.
182. Zach Charbonnet, RB, SEA (RB57)
He’ll be back at some point in 2026, so if your league has IR spots, stash Zach Charbonnet. If they gave him the work last season with Kenneth Walker in town, he’ll certainly be involved with Price and co. in the backfield.
183. Alvin Kamara, RB, NO (RB58, ▼51)
46th in yards per carry, 39th in explosive run rate, and 3rd lowest yards after the catch per reception among running backs. As much as it hurts, Alvin Kamara is toast, methinks. The Saints offered to trade him, and Kamara told the team he’d rather stay in New Orleans. A man of character, but not helpful for his fantasy value. His RB1 days are over in fantasy and in NOLA, as ETN will lead the Saints after signing a hefty contract. Kamara may have some FLEX appeal, but I don’t envision him on any of my rosters in 2026.
UPDATE (9/4/26): Out for multiple weeks with a knee injury and appears to be the clear backup despite the coach saying otherwise.
184. Aaron Rodgers, QB, PIT (QB31, ▲8)
(づ｡◕‿‿◕｡)づ “Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh over the weekend of May 9th.”
(╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻ “Aaron Rodgers doesn’t meet with the Steelers while in Pittsburgh.”
┬─┬ノ( º _ ºノ) “Aaron Rodgers is signing a one-year deal with the Steelers”.
He has better weapons in offseason acquisitions Michael Pittman Jr. and second-round rookie Germie Bernard, but Aaron Rodgers is nothing more than a desperation bye week fill-in. The Steelers will struggle to reach six wins, and I have reservations about Rodgers finishing the season as the team’s starter.
185. Chris Bell, WR, MIA (WR73)
One of the most physical receivers in the draft, Chris Bell out of Louisville is in the mold of an A.J. Brown physically but closer to the hands of Xavier Legette. Bell unfortunately tore his ACL in November and is set to miss most of the 2026 season. The tear was reportedly clean, which bodes well for his recovery timeline. Like every injured player ever, he’s reportedly “ahead of schedule.” It’s been all good news so far in his recovery, and word on the street (people still say that, right?) is he’ll be ready for training camp. How much he’s able to do and if he’ll be a full go at the start of the season is a different story, but he’s got a chip on his shoulder (people still say that, right?) from sliding to the third, and a depth chart barren of talent in front of him.
186. Tyjae Spears, RB, TEN (RB59)
It’s a crowded backfield, and Tyjae Spears has yet to have a single 100-yard rushing game in three seasons. But if the Titans offense improves and Spears earns meaningful touches, he could become a nice value.
187. Isiah Pacheco, RB, DET (RB60, ▼105)
Isiah Pacheco is fun to watch run the football. He looks like a toddler running away from his parents at bedtime. Sadly for Pacheco, his lead-back days have officially gone night-night. Among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts, Pacheco had the 2nd-lowest explosive run rate and was one of two players under 4%. However, it is not the end. I’m intrigued by Pacheco cosplaying in the David Montgomery role. New Lions OC Drew Petzing‘s run game has produced with much less talented backs than Pacheco. If you’re able to get him outside the top 150, sign me up.
Also, rumor has it Pacheco wants people to start calling him “Taz” as a nickname.
UPDATE (9/4/26): Starting the season on IR
188. Brian Robinson Jr., RB, ATL (RB61)
The tilt when I see TOUCHDOWN – B.Robinson (ATL) and realize it’s not Bijan is going to be the stuff of legends.
One of the top handcuffs in fantasy.
189. Joe Jurevicius, WR, NYG (WR74, NEW)
Just seeing if you’re paying attention.
190. Carson Beck, QB, ARI (QB32)
Carson Beck is a pro-style pocket passer with good short and intermediate accuracy, solid processing, and enough poise to run an NFL offense. For fantasy, the ceiling is the question. He does not add much with his legs, and he is not the type of off-script creator who can turn broken plays into cheat-code points. In the right structure, he can be useful. Considering the holdout of Jacoby Brissett and the looming 2027 class, Beck likely sees some starts this season. Just don’t expect much.
191. Sean Tucker, RB, TB (RB62)
Sean Tucker stole the hearts of many as he stole the goal line role from Bucky Irving. Tucker scored eight total touchdowns on just 97 touches, and figures to remain involved in the offense again, even with Kenny Gainwell in town.
192. Zachariah Branch, WR, ATL (WR75)
Shoutout to all my fellow short kings out there! That includes you, Zachariah Branch. The 5’8″ receiver has blazing speed and ran a 4.35 40 at the combine, and excels at making defenders miss. His diminutive stature does limit his ability to win contested catches, but Branch is every bit of lightning in a bottle. Just a mini-bottle. He did have 81 catches in 2025, but 49 of them came behind the line of scrimmage. He’ll enter the league as a jet sweep/screen guy that teams will love on special teams, but his path to fantasy relevance requires a very specific role. One of the widest ranges of outcomes in the draft class, the Falcons’ WR depth chart currently has Olamide Zaccheaus and Jahan Dotson listed as starters. That should tell you enough about the opportunity Branch could have very early on in his career.
193. Ray Davis, RB, BUF (RB63)
The next man up in one of the run-heaviest offenses in the NFL.
194. Germie Bernard, WR, PIT (WR76)
Germie Bernard is basically “Roll Tide” Jarvis Landry — a starting-caliber slot receiver with great hands who runs extremely clean routes. He’s the guy you look for on third and a couple. Bernard isn’t an explosive playmaker or a vertical threat, but he has the traits to be a valuable fantasy and real-life receiver for a long time. Unfortunately, he landed on literally one of the only teams that could make me want to avoid him like the plague in redraft. Aaron Rodgers is back as the QB, and he’s stuck behind DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman… no thanks.
195. Elijah Sarratt, WR, BAL (WR77)
If you asked Siri who the best route runner was in the 2026 class, she’d probably tell you, “I don’t have a connection right now,” and then when you Google it, chances are Elijah Sarratt’s name would show up among the top answers. The route technician has excellent hands and the heart of Rocky Balboa. Sarratt came down with 44 touchdowns in his career, but he’s not a vertical threat and not much of a contested catch guru. An already low-upside receiver ending up in Baltimore is not ideal for fantasy purposes.
196. Jordan James, RB, SF (RB64)
Jordan > James
Copy-paste any back worth watching in Shanny’s run system.
197. Ja’Kobi Lane, WR, BAL (WR78)
At 6’4″, Ja’Kobi Lane checks in as one of the tallest receivers in the 2026 class. He’s a tad undersized at 200-ish lbs, but his ball skills and catch point dominance make him the kind of receiver who turns 50/50 balls into touchdowns. Big body, 40″ vertical, 10.5″ hands, wins at the catch point. His whole game is “let me Moss this guy real quick.” He has four drops each of the last two seasons and lacks separation skills, but should be able to become a red zone/contested catch specialist at minimum. Ditto what I said about Sarratt, except a wider range of outcomes.
198. Justice Hill, RB, BAL (RB65)
The perfect combination of backup to an aging RB (even if that RB is superhuman) who is startable at FLEX in emergencies and bye-pocalypse.
199. Kayshon Boutte, WR, HOU (WR79)
An inconsistent deep threat is still just 23 years old. Worth stashing, but don’t overdraft.
UPDATE (9/4/26): Has some opportunity in Houston after being acquired by the Texans with Jayden Higgins out for the year. Worth watching, but I’m not overly excited.
200. James Conner, RB, ARI (RB66)
I can’t wait for the James Conner 4 carry, 2 yard, 2 touchdown game.