Week 3 provided us with some great results, especially if you were using the Bengals to upgrade the rest of your roster in DFS. If you picked them up, keep them going for week 4 against Jacksonville. Tennessee will also be another strong play getting the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets, but again, they were also featured in last week’s article so hold on to them as well if you went in that direction. Where I just covered both, I’ll just consider them as honorable mentions and go with four new defenses to choose from.
Opponent: @ Miami Dolphins
0-3 was not the expectation when this season started, that’s obvious. However, there have been many positive signs of improvement. On defense, they have been solid against the run, including last week. It may not look that way in the box score until you see they limited Derrick Henry to 4.0 ypc on 28 attempts. The first couple of weeks were rough on pass defense at times, but that will happen when you play against Matt Stafford and Russell Wilson to open your season. The offense did them no favors against Tennessee converting just three first downs on 12 opportunities and got outpaced in Time of Possession by almost 10 minutes. Even with all of that working against them, the defense managed to force three turnovers and played with purpose. To play into the narrative a bit, teams that are talented but underproducing that start with their backs against the wall, are typically dangerous teams. It doesn’t shock me to see them as road underdogs in terms of early betting, but starting 0-4 with a loss to the Jacoby Brissett-led Dolphins this Sunday would.
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) September 26, 2021
Opponent: vs Carolina Panthers
This could be a valuable contrarian play. The Panthers are 3-0, and to the casual observer, that makes them a team to steer clear of. However, this may be an opportunity to zig while others zag in GPP DFS. The Panthers’ line has not gotten any better, but Sam Darnold has been playing well enough to make up for it. However, with no Christian McCaffrey, there’s no real expectation that the run game can operate anywhere near the same level. DJ Moore has been enjoying the bump this year with Darnold, but this week he has a strong chance to get shadowed by Trevon Diggs who is having a breakout campaign of his own. The Cowboys will also have the Giants and Patriots coming up so if this defense starts to click, you may have them for a few weeks. In daily terms, anything under $3,000 that can pull in 3x ROI is worth a strong look.
— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) September 28, 2021
Green Bay Packers
Opponent: vs Pittsburgh Steelers
This game is much more about the opponent than the actual defense. The Packers are playing well enough, but the bloated DK price has to do almost exclusively with the ineptitude of the Steelers’ offense, and specifically Ben Roethlisberger. Playing through a nagging injury is commendable until you’re a detriment to your team. Assuming Diontae Johnson is back from injury, which he should from all reports, that will offer a boost for the passing game, though it does downgrade Najee Harris slightly who got fed in the passing game with the lack of options on the field. Being back in Green Bay after an emotional win also checks a box in the narrative column as the fans should be ready to have Lambeau rocking louder than ever. Admittedly, not my favorite play this week in DFS with the price hike, but in seasonal formats, they do have the Bengals and Bears coming up and neither should worry Packers managers.
Guys like this could never play in today’s league pic.twitter.com/kuFu2PU520
— Steven Ruiz (@theStevenRuiz) September 27, 2021
New Orleans Saints
Opponent: vs New York Giants
Kadarius Toney played 66% of the offensive snaps for the Giants in week 3. While that sounds like an encouraging stat for Toney, there’s a more subtle issue there. He is by no means ready to be out there, but with seemingly every member of their passing game injured to some degree, he was forced to be out there. Daniel Jones is still largely incapable of protecting the ball as he is on pace for 17 fumbles this year, though has yet to throw an interception. That may change this week against a Saints defense that has forced an interception in each game this year, six overall, and a fumble added in for good measure. The early spread on this game is NOS -8 with an o/u of 43.5. That means the implied total leaves the Giants scoring under 20 points. If Jones is without Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton and they have to lean on Collin Johnson again, this may be a tough game to sit through as a Giants fan.
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) September 26, 2021
Previous Week: Carolina, Tennessee, Las Vegas, Cincinnati
(Photo by Stephen Lew/Icon Sportswire)