Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers
Final Score: Chargers 27, Titans 17
Writer: Jason Wolf (J_Wolf_Picks on Twitter)
In a game with surprisingly efficient quarterback play from both sides, Justin Herbert shined and out-dueled Will Levis, leading the way for the 27-17 Chargers win. This game felt much more out of hand than the final score suggests, as the Chargers thoroughly outplayed the Titans and controlled the game for most of the afternoon. After Levis connected with Calvin Ridley for a 40+ yard touchdown in the first quarter, the Chargers took control of the game, going on a 24-3 scoring run over the next three quarters to run out to a 27-10 lead. The Chargers ran the ball nearly 40 times, more than double the number of pass plays they dialed up as they found success in the ground game to complement Herbert’s passing attack. Just as they have been for most of the season, Herbert’s numbers weren’t eye-popping by any means, but he looks so much better when you watch him compared to his rough numbers. Herbert was pinpoint accurate, with his 14/18 passing not doing justice to his level of accuracy on the day, as even his incompletions were impressively on the money. The real difference on the day was the Chargers defense getting to Levis for seven sacks and numerous other QB pressures. Levis did a surprisingly good job of holding on to the ball and limiting mistakes, but there was only so much he could do to navigate a constantly collapsing pocket as the Chargers’ pass rush was a consistent drive-killer on the day.
Two Up
- Calvin Ridley – For the third week in a row, Ridley dominated the Titans’ offensive target share, vastly outproducing the other receivers on the team for the third week in a row. Ridley has a combined 300 yards and two TD’s over the past three games, and with DeAndre Hopkins out of the picture, his target share isn’t going down anytime soon. Firmly entrenched as the WR1 and peppered with targets to his delight, Ridley is producing gaudy numbers on a Titans offense desperate for game-breaking talent.
- Gus Edwards – Coming back from IR, Gus Edwards was much more involved in the offense than most people (myself included) had predicted. J.K. Dobbins has had the lead-back duties on lock for a while now, but Gus came in and saw 10 carries to Dobbins’ 15 out of the gates. The Chargers could be looking to keep Dobbins fresh as they move closer to the playoffs, or they could be moving in the direction of a more even timeshare for now. Either way, Gus’ arrow is pointing up as the offense is looking good, and he will have opportunities to score in the coming weeks.
Two Down
- Tony Pollard – In the early going of the game, the Titans were feeding Pollard the ball. But in the second quarter, Pollard appeared to tweak an ankle, going down on the field and coming up walking gingerly. By the time Pollard got back onto the field, Tyjae Spears came in and performed admirably on his touches, and the Titans found themselves down in the game. Pollard was mostly game-scripted out of this one and possibly wasn’t feeling 100% after tweaking the ankle. Either way, Spears is back and looked spry as he has all year, and the Titans figure to be in negative game scripts more often than not.
- J.K. Dobbins – Dobbins is looking healthy and fast out there, so this isn’t a comment on his game shape or form. However, Gus Edwards’ usage coming off IR is a bit concerning for Dobbins backers as he conceded nearly half of the RB touches to Edwards and Hassan Haskins, including a precious goal-line TD to Haskins. With Gus back in the picture and TDs vultured by Haskins + Herbert, Dobbins isn’t a lock for the 15-20 touches a game he was seeing while Edwards was on the shelf.
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback
Will Levis: 18/23, 175 Yards, 2 TD | 5 Carries, 41 Yards
Returning to the lineup after three weeks sidelined by a shoulder injury, I thought Will Levis had one of the best games of his young career. His final numbers don’t jump out of you from the box score, but something that should pop out (given his performance this year) was the accuracy on the day (78%) and the turnovers (zero). His accuracy on the day, as well as the fact that he took care of the ball, make this a very promising start for Levis despite the result. The Chargers’ pass rush got to Levis for seven sacks on the day as Levis was under siege all game. Granted, one of the negative aspects of Levis’ performance today is his tendency to hold on to the ball for too long. There were times when a quick read was open for a short gain, but Levis held on to let his other options develop, leading to an unnecessary sack being taken or being forced to throw the ball away. Levis took hits to his body that were completely avoidable if he just decided to get rid of the ball quicker, one way or another. Though he did hold on to the ball for too long at times, he was clearly practicing patience in the pocket as he kept his eyes upfield. Levis made numerous throws with pressure staring him down and took some hits in the name of delivering an accurate ball. There were no panic throws or snap bad decisions leading to turnovers. Levis protected the ball and did a good job of finding his guys despite facing regular pressure. Levis’ long-bomb TD to Calvin Ridley was a good job of recognizing his most advantageous matchup and firing away, letting Ridley win 1-on-1 with no safety help over the top. He was looking Ridley’s way all day (sometimes to a fault), connecting with him for both of his passing scores, but it looked like he had tunnel vision toward his WR1’s way. Levis needs to work on his mental processing so that he can improve on working his way through progressions while maneuvering around the pocket, two areas with room for improvement. He obviously has a cannon and the physical tools to succeed, so seeing him have a game like this is encouraging. Levis finished the day with an impressive 127.4 QBR, particularly strong with the amount of pressures he faced, even if some of those were due to his lack of pocket awareness. When Levis does break the pocket, he can chew up some yards on the ground; he just has to decide to do it faster. Watching Levis game should leave people with room to hope for Levis despite his clear faults.
Running Back
Tony Pollard: 9 Carries, 44 yards | 4 Targets, 4 Receptions, 19 Yards
Before getting a little banged up, Tony Pollard was the primary ball handler by far. Tyjae Spears came in for him and performed nicely, but Pollard was the go-to guy in the early going, getting the first five RB touches on the day. Pollard was looking good, rushing for an efficient 30 yards on only four carries before he tweaked his ankle. Between his ankle injury (which he came back from) and the Titans falling apart, the game script turned negative pretty quickly for Pollard. He seemed well on his way to 20 touches but finished the game with 13 total (4 targets/ rec. + 9 rush) on a day that went from promising to sour pretty quickly. With the return of Spears and the Titans likely to face negative game scripts often, Pollard’s value is at a season-low right now in terms of the percentage of the backfield touches he will demand.
Tyjae Spears: 7 Carries, 47 Yards | 3 Targets, 3 Receptions, 4 Yards
Tyjae Spears came in after Pollard got banged up and made an immediate impact, rushing for a first down and providing a nice change of pace from Pollard. Spears is small but pops on the screen when the ball is in his hands, He’s ultra quick and flashed explosiveness that Pollard doesn’t have (healthy or not) on his two gains that went from 10+ yards. The Titans need to do a better job of manufacturing touches in space for Spears. He is one of their most dangerous players with the ball in his hands, so they need to get him going in more creative ways.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Calvin Ridley: 9 Targets, 5 Receptions, 84 Yards, 2 TD
Calvin Ridley has become the #1 option in the passing game, leading the team in targets each of the past three weeks. With DeAndre Hopkins gone, Ridley has 300 receiving yards over the past three weeks. Ridley had six targets on Levis’ first 10 pass attempts and finished with three times as many targets (9) as the next WR (Westbrook-Ikhine with 3). On Ridley’s first TD reception, he just burned his defender 1 v. 1 up the field for the long bomb 42 yard TD with sub-5 minutes left in the first quarter. There was no safety help over the top on Ridley, and he made them pay for it. It was a good job by Levis to recognize the matchup and take advantage with a perfectly placed deep ball to Ridley, who took it to the house in stride. Without Hopkins, Ridley has seamlessly become the #1 WR on the team, gobbling up target share and producing gaudy numbers. Ridley was throwing fits earlier in the year for not getting enough targets, and now his play is making those fits look pretty reasonable in hindsight.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: 3 Targets, 3 Receptions, 31 Yards
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had a TD catch in four straight games coming into this one against the Chargers, but his streak of scoring came to an end as he failed to find the endzone for the first time in a month. While the volume wasn’t there today with Calvin Ridley dominating the targets, NWI did at least show good efficiency, coming down with all three targets for three receptions and 31 yards. He finished second among WRs in targets (3) but third behind Ridley and Pollard overall.
Bryce Oliver: 2 Targets, 2 Receptions, 23 Yards
Chig Okonkwo: 1 Target, 1 Reception, 14 Yards
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback
Justin Herbert: 14/18, 164 Yards, TD | 9 Carries, 32 Yards, TD
While Justin Herbert‘s 14/18 passing is good for over a 70% completion rate, it doesn’t come close to telling the story of how accurate Herbert was on the day. Herbert had four incompletions in this game, but three of those incomplete passes hit his receivers square in the hands. Herbert is so impressive. This is my takeaway nearly every time I watch Justin Herbert play. He is playing like a top 5 QB, but he produces the results of a fantasy QB2, so no one talks about him as much as other guys. But his impact goes beyond passing stats and box score numbers. His ability to extend plays, zip the ball into tight windows, and make improbable plays raises the entire floor and ceiling of the Chargers’ offense. His ability to throw on the run sets him up for success when scrambling out of the pocket. A simple pump fake buys him extra yards due to the respect his throwing-on-the-run ability demands. Against the Titans, he did some of his best work from outside the pocket, whether he threw the ball or tucked it and ran with it. Herbert made plays on the ground, making multiple defenders miss with unexpected jukes and cuts. Herbert had a season-high nine rushes for 32 yards and a rushing score. On his TD run, Herbert converted on a 4th & 1 at the 4-yard line for the TD. Herbert made a nice cut in the backfield to avoid the tackle and punched it in, looking like a goal-line back in the process. He showed moves as a ball carrier that most people didn’t know he had in him at all. He scrambled twice for 11 yards on the opening drive, and that was a sign of things to come as he showed a willingness to get the tough yards using his legs. He is clearly not afraid to take the potential hit if it means getting the first down/score. Herbert was given time to operate on his TD throw to Quentin Johnston, and he delivered with a perfectly placed ball. He made it easy as he dropped the ball in QJ’s hands away from the DB, where only he could make the play. One of Herbert’s best throws of the day was an incomplete to Will Dissly. Herbert bought Dissly the time needed for his route to develop, and Herbert delivered the ball on the tips of Disney’s hands but couldn’t come down with it. Herbert was staring down the defender coming for him, but he got rid of the ball at the last second, off his back foot, and yet somehow still perfectly placed the ball to the only possible place it could have gone for a score. This was an elite quarterbacking performance despite a lack of heavy offensive production. Herbert put the ball where he wanted, when he wanted, and led the team on multiple well-executed scoring drives with relative ease.
Running Back
J.K. Dobbins: 15 Carries, 50 Yards, TD | 3 Targets, 3 Receptions, 5 Yards
J.K. Dobbins looks as good as ever. He’s deceptively strong, and he’s lightning-quick in his cuts and downfield speed. Not only does he possess a deadly second gear when he is in the open field, but he has some of the best lateral quickness in the game, allowing him to beat defenders to the flats with regularity. His ability to get wide quickly brings out the best of the Chargers’ running game, especially when Gus Edwards is healthy, and both can be used to the best of their abilities This wasn’t Dobbins’ most effective game as the Titans made a concerted effort to stop the run game, which for the most part, worked in limiting LA’s success on the ground. Dobbins only received 56% of the RB opportunities in this one as Edwards came back healthy, and even 3rd-string Hassan Haskins got two carries and poached a TD from within the 5-yard line. The workload was disappointing, the production was modest due to the Titans selling out to stop the run, and Dobbins didn’t score. Definitely not the day Dobbins supporters were imagining, but this could be a more realistic expectation to set than the past few weeks without Edwards.
Gus Edwards: 10 Carries, 55 Yards
Activated off IR in advance of this game, Gus Edwards came out the gates looking good, as he gained 16 yards on his first two carries. “Gus Bus” saw eight more carries, rushing for a total of 55 yards on 10 carries in his return. Edwards looked good and took more carries away from Dobbins than expected, coming away with a near 40% RB-touch share while leading the team in rushing yards. Gus didn’t get the call for a goal-line carry as Herbert converted a short TD himself, and backup-to-the-backup Haskins poached another.
Hassan Haskins: 2 Carries, 4 Yards, TD
Converted on a short-yard TD on one of his two carries, angering fantasy football managers across the country.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Ladd McConkey: 2 Targets, 2 Receptions, 52 Yards
Ladd McConkey ended up leading the Chargers in receiving yards on the day despite accruing only 15 receiving yards on one target through the first 45 minutes of play. However, with 14 minutes left in the game, McConkey got open 15 yards down the field, catching the ball while his defender slipped, allowing him to run for 20+ yards after the catch. The rookie WR has been Herbert’s favorite WR as the season has developed, but he was essentially invisible in this game before he came down with his 37-yard catch-and-run. McConkey didn’t do anything to make his defender fall, but this isn’t the first time he’s displayed excellent YAC ability. Watching Ladd, something that sticks out is his willingness to block and his actual proficiency in pass blocking despite his stature.
Quentin Johnston: 2 Targets, 2 Receptions, 24 Yards, TD
Quentin Johnston was targeted on the first play of the game, coming down with the open catch for an easy, almost-10 10-yard catch and run. He wasn’t targeted again until his touchdown reception with 3 minutes left to go in the third quarter. On the play, Justin Herbert was given ample time to operate in a clean pocket, and he delivered with a perfectly placed ball. Herbert made it easy on QJ as he dropped the ball in his hands away from the DB, where only Johnston could make the play. For the 5th time in 6 weeks, QJ caught a TD pass from Herbert, a connection that is blossoming, especially down in the red zone.
Joshua Palmer: 2 Targets, 1 Reception, 36 Yards
On a day where Justin Herbert only threw the ball 18 times, volume didn’t exist to be spread around to multiple receivers. Joshua Palmer got the short end of the stick this week as he saw only two targets on the day, coming down with his lone reception for 36 yards. Palmer finished tied for third on the day in targets and finished with the second-most receiving yards via his big gain. Palmer has become somewhat of a boom/bust play, and in a game where the Chargers spent most of the time ahead, this was a predictable bust day for Palmer.
Will Dissly: 6 Targets, 5 Receptions, 30 Yards
Will Dissly got looks on two consecutive plays on the Chargers’ first drive. He is a real part of the offense and good for more than just a couple of targets in a game. Dissly actually led the Chargers in targets in this one but was only able to come down with 30 total yards, operating as a short-yardage safety net for Herbert. Dissly is reliable and can be found where Herbert expects him to be at all times, whether that’s in blocking or running a route. Dissly has become a staple of the Chargers offense, and he almost came down with the highlight reel-worthy play of the day on his lone incomplete target. Herbert hit Dissly in the hands in the back of the endzone just out of reach of the DB, but Dissly just barely couldn’t come down with it. It would have been an exceptional play, so no real blame for Dissly on not completing it, but it was excruciatingly close.
Derius Davis: 1 Target, 1 Reception, 17 Yards | 1 Carry, 6 Yards