Dolphins @ Jets
Final Score: Dolphins 34, Jets 13
Writer: Christian Otteman (@COttemanPL on Twitter/X)
In the NFL’s first Black Friday game, the biggest storyline was the New York Jets hunting for deals in the bargain bin, where they found Tim Boyle and started him at quarterback following a disastrous couple of months from Zach Wilson. Boyle performed a near-perfect imitation of Wilson, failing to ignite the offense in any meaningful way for the full 60 minutes. As we turn to the holiday season, Jets fans have one thing on their Christmas list: Aaron Rodgers being truthful about his ability to return to the field before the season’s end. Let’s just hope they aren’t eliminated from the playoffs by then.
On the visiting team’s side of things, the Miami Dolphins have struggled against tough competition this season but have largely taken care of business against inferior opponents. This trend continued in a largely stress-free game against their division opponents in which the Fins rode their ground game to a comfortable lead and never looked back. At 8-3, the Dolphins not only have a two-game cushion over the Bills for the AFC East lead but are also squarely in the mix for the coveted first-round bye. They’ll look to increase their odds in the next three weeks with matchups against the Commanders, Titans, and Jets.
Three Up
- Jaylen Waddle – He has had a fairly pedestrian third season while being overshadowed by Tyreek Hill‘s sensational campaign. However, he was involved early and often in this one and eclipsed 100 yards for the second time this season. His performance wasn’t due to the Jets aiming to shut down Hill, either: Jaylen Waddle made some great grabs while being shadowed by star CB Sauce Gardner.
- Raheem Mostert – Mostert has been one of the best draft values this season and currently leads the league with 13 rushing touchdowns. Even when De’Von Achane returns to the field, Mostert will be a Must-Start every week, regardless of the matchup.
- Jeff Wilson Jr. – His performance was overshadowed by his backfield partner, but Wilson turned in a solid performance in his own right and was importantly the Dolphins back most involved in the passing game. In PPR leagues, Wilson may be worth an add on waivers if Achane’s status is in question for Week 13.
Two Down
- Jets Pass Catchers – All of them. In case it wasn’t obvious, things did not look any better (and perhaps looked even worse) following the quarterback change for the home team. Garrett Wilson maintains a weekly Flex option due to his high target share, but the rest of this wide receiver room should be avoided at all costs.
- Tua Tagovailoa – It’s the Jets defense, so take this performance with a grain of salt, but this was Tua’s worst game of the 2023 season; he committed three turnovers en route to a sub-10 point fantasy performance. Look for him to bounce back next week against the porous Washington Commanders secondary.
\
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa: 21/30, 243 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT | 2 carries, 1 yard, 1 fumble lost
It was a somewhat uncharacteristic game for the Miami signal caller, as Tua got off to a strong start before throwing a pair of interceptions in the waning moments of the first half, one of which was returned for a touchdown. Thankfully, Tua played well enough throughout the day to mitigate the damage done by his turnovers, completing 70 percent of his passes en route to an easy victory. The Dolphins were able to rely on their ground game against an inferior opponent for much of the second half, which capped Tagovailoa’s upside from a fantasy perspective. Next week, Tua gets the Commanders, who have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL thus far. Expect a much more productive outing in Week 13.
Mike White: 0/0, 0 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT | 1 carry, -2 yards
Mike McDaniel decided to send in the former Jet to take a knee in the game’s final play. Whether this was to protect Tua from the microscopic possibility of an injury or a chance to remind the Jets who they could have had playing QB is up to you to decide.
Running Back
Raheem Mostert: 20 carries, 94 yards, 2 TD | 1 target
As long as the Dolphins are winning, Mostert is scoring you a cornucopia of fantasy points, and things were no different in this victory. Mostert found paydirt twice in the fourth quarter, scoring from 13 and 34 yards out, turning a Fantasy Famine into a Thanksgiving Feast for managers who started him. Mostert has somewhat struggled in Dolphins losses this season (5.5, 6.1, and 14.5 points in those games), but has delivered time and time again this season. He should continue to do so as long as Miami is putting points on the board.
Jeff Wilson Jr.: 11 carries, 56 yards | 3 targets, 3 receptions, 17 yards
A healthy scratch in Week 11, Jeff Wilson, Jr. made the most of his opportunities in Week 12, producing 73 yards on 14 touches. His fantasy relevance likely hinges on the availability of De’Von Achane in future weeks. He’s a worthwhile add as an insurance policy if you own shares of this backfield, but likely won’t be more than a flex play in deep leagues even if Achane misses additional time.
Darrynton Evans: 2 carries, 16 yards
Darrynton Evans offered very little relevance in this backfield with Achane sidelined, and will likely be a healthy scratch once the speedy rookie returns to the field.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Tyreek Hill: 12 targets, 9 receptions, 102 yards, 1 TD | 1 carry, 2 yards
It was par for the course this game for Hill, meaning he once again recorded over 100 yards and a touchdown–the seventh time this season he’s met both marks in the same game. He’s a matchup-proof stud and one of the few players who can essentially win you your week by himself. All that’s left is to see just how high that receiving total can go: 2,000 yards is well within reach.
Missed Opportunities
- Tua looked Hill’s way on a fade on 4th-and-2 from the Jets’ 5-yard line on the first drive, but Sauce Gardner covered the play well and the pass went incomplete.
Jaylen Waddle: 8 targets, 8 receptions, 114 yards
This was a great game for Waddle in a comfortable win against a tough defense, yet somehow it marked only the second time this season he has crossed the century mark in receiving yards. He’s a premiere WR2 in the league, but a WR2 nonetheless, meaning his scoring opportunities are somewhat capped. Nevertheless, the mouthwatering matchup with the Commanders in Week 13 means he should have a great chance to find the end zone and deliver high-end production.
Durham Smythe: 3 targets, 1 reception, 10 yards
Smythe hasn’t seen more than three targets since the Week 4 matchup against Buffalo. If he’s still on your roster due to his promising target share earlier in the season, it’s time to replace him with a higher upside option.
New York Jets
Quarterback
Tim Boyle: 27/38, 179 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT | 2 carries, 2 yards
Perhaps my favorite Thanksgiving debate amongst friends is whether or not the leftovers are better than the actual Thanksgiving dinner itself. Unfortunately, Boyle did little to settle this debate in a metaphorical sense, as he provided the same quality of play at the position that Jets fans have been subject to all year. The unlikely Hail Mary Pick Six at the end of the first half added plenty of insult to injury as Boyle was put on ice skates at the tail end of the return:
Tim Boyle throws a hail mary pick six and then gets his ankles broken… good lawd pic.twitter.com/6qzuYy1hVF
— CJ Fogler account may or may not be notable (@cjzero) November 24, 2023
Boyle has already been named the Week 13 starter by Robert Saleh, so things are unlikely to improve for the foreseeable future.
Running Back
Breece Hall: 7 carries, 25 yards | 9 targets, 7 receptions, 24 yards
As is the case for much of the 2023 season, there was simply nowhere for Breece Hall to run on the vast majority of plays this game. The lack of an effective passing game allows opposing teams to stack the box with very little risk. Breece still broke off a handful of chunk plays and remained involved in the passing game–an area in which he may perform better with Boyle’s dink-and-dunk tendencies. Against all odds, Hall remains the one option on the Jets offense that warrants a no-doubt start every week, especially in PPR leagues.
Dalvin Cook: 1 carry, 2 yards | 3 targets, 2 receptions, 19 yards
The departure of Michael Carter has done little to improve things for the veteran running back. Dalvin Cook should be left on waivers and will hopefully get a chance at a career resurgence in 2024.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Garrett Wilson: 10 targets, 7 receptions, 44 yards, 1 TD
Wilson salvaged his fantasy day by scoring a touchdown late in the 4th quarter but otherwise struggled to find meaningful production for much of the afternoon through no fault of his own. He should be a start most weeks solely due to his natural talent and massive target share, but his weekly floor and ceiling remain limited by offensive inefficiency and poor quarterback play.
Tyler Conklin: 5 targets, 4 receptions, 33 yards
Tyler Conklin has enjoyed some decent receiving totals in recent weeks but has yet to score this season. Barring any unforeseen change in target volume or red zone productivity, Conklin is a TE2 or streaming option at best for the remainder of this season.
Jason Brownlee: 2/2 receiving, 20 yards
These were Jason Brownlee‘s first two receptions of the 2023 season. He should remain on waivers.
Jeremy Ruckert: 2/4 receiving, 18 yards
The Ohio State product was an intriguing add in deep dynasty leagues at the start of the season, but he continues to do little more than disappoint given his limited offensive involvement.
Xavier Gipson: 2/2 receiving, 15 yards
The Week 1 special teams hero has been a great story to follow this season but isn’t close to becoming fantasy relevance yet.
Nick Bawden: 1/1 receiving, 6 yards