Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers
Final Score: Packers 30 – Dolphins 17
Writer: Steven Pintado ( @coachstevenp on Twitter)
Our final Thanksgiving game was a one-sided battle as the Green Bay Packers would dominate the game. The Packers seemed in sync as they made plays on special teams and defense. The offense was led by Jordan Love, who had a solid game and threw for over 250 yards and two touchdowns. The Dolphins would look like a team that wasn’t ready for the cold and started the game slowly. It wasn’t until the third quarter that Miami would get things going, especially on offense. The biggest Achilles heel for Miami was their defense being unable to stop anyone on the Packers side of the ball.
Three Up
- Josh Jacobs – The Packers star running back had a great fantasy with over 20 fantasy points. He used his ground and pound to help move the ball down the field, but his value in the receiving showed off in a big way.
- Jonnu Smith – The veteran tight end came out with another impressive outing. He looks like Tua Tagovailoa’s safety blanket in the middle of the field. He has turned into the second option downfield in the Dolphins offense.
- Jayden Reed – The second-year receiver didn’t have the biggest fantasy day with his yardage, but he was able to grab two touchdowns. Both touchdowns came into the red zone, and if Love is going to target Jayden Reed in that area, then he’ll have touchdown upside moving forward.
Three Down
- Jaylen Waddle – Waddle returns to mediocre fantasy production after a blow-up game in Week 12. It’s clear that he will likely be the fourth option in Miami this season. Waddle can’t have consistent top-36 play with only four targets.
- Dolphins run game – Miami is showing us they don’t have a running back to pound the rock up the middle in this offense. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert are solid runners but don’t fit the physical style against a more physical team.
- Emanuel Wilson –The Packers running back has been the primary backup for most of the season, but he continues to lose touches to Chris Brooks, who is now splitting the backup work.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa : 37/46, 365 yards passing, 2 TDs | 2 carries, 6 yards
The Dolphins quarterback finished with statistically solid numbers, but that doesn’t tell the whole game’s story. In the first half of this game, Tagovailoa was mediocre at best. He didn’t move the ball well and missed some important targets downfield. It wasn’t until the second half that Tagovailoa would start pushing the ball downfield more often. He did look great when he was thriving, as he would make good things and run through his progressions. The biggest issue was that the Dolphins’ offensive line could not protect Tagovailoa all that well. He was sacked five times and pressured to move a lot in the game. For fantasy, Tagovailoa is proving to be a good option moving forward, but you may have to wait until the games are over to like what you see.
Running Back
De’Von Achane : 7 carries, 14 yards rushing | 9 targets, 8 receptions, 56 yards, TD
The Dolphins star running back would have a great fantasy day, as Achane saw early-game targets in the offense. He continues to see a great receiving ability in the Dolphins offense and would make big gains on these receptions. Achane was proven a reliable option in the offense, even late in the game, as the Dolphins were trying to make a comeback. The struggles were on the ground for Achane. He would have one or two decent runs but was ineffective for most of the game. Achane can’t be the ground-and-pound running back that the Dolphins need. His best ability is in the receiving game, and he should remain a top RB1 option, thanks to that ability.
Raheem Mostert: 5 carries, 19 yards rushing | 3 targets, 2 receptions, 15 yards
The veteran running back would see an increase in his role as rookie Jaylen Wright would not get a touch in this game. Mostert would see the full backup role for the offense but would be ineffective. His best play was a 15-yard reception, and he played it like a receiver. He was out wide and would have to get up a bit to catch it from Tagovailoa. Mostert would have a nice 26-yard run in the third quarter, but it would be called back on a penalty. Mostert’s role still can’t be sure that he regained the backup role after one week. He remains not a starting option in most formats.
Alec Ingold: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 15 yards receiving
Full-back Alec Ingold returned to the fold after weeks of being injured. He will be a player who gets a few targets in games but nothing of value for fantasy.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Tyreek Hill: 9 targets, 6 receptions, 83 yards receiving, TD
Tyreek Hill finished with a great fantasy day for fantasy managers, but it was a bit of Thanksgiving luck. His touchdown was a deflection off of Jonnu Smith that would lead to Hill grabbing the ball in the endzone. Hill was impressive in this game, as he looked better than in recent weeks. He could find spacing in zone coverage, and he beat his defenders plenty of times to find separation. A key component was that he saw nine targets in this game, which is why we liked Hill’s upside. The sad part is that Hill still doesn’t see any deep ball downfield in the offense. Hill still isn’t a WR1 at the moment in fantasy but continues to have WR2 value moving forward.
Jaylen Waddle: 4 targets, 4 receptions, 53 yards receiving
Jaylen Waddle put up a respectable fantasy outing in Week 13. Most of Waddle’s catches were short grabs. Waddle would be able to gain yards after the catch. Waddle’s first targets weren’t until the third quarter. He would have a solid contested catch with three defenders around him. He would also catch a toe-diving two-point conversion in the game. Unfortunately, the lack of consistent targets hurts Waddle from being a strong FLEX option.
Jonnu Smith: 11 targets, 10 receptions, 113 yards receiving
Smith had a monster game in Week 12. He has been on a rampage in fantasy but had one of his biggest non-touchdown games. Smith led the way in both teams’ targets, receptions, and yards over all pass catchers and was consistently finding space over the middle of the field. Tagovailoa was looking over and over again for Smith in this game. When he was quick to make throws, Smith would always be the target Tagovailoa would go towards. Smith also helped the Dolphins with a bad catch that would result in Tyreek Hill catching the touchdown. He will have tough matchups moving forward, so it would be interesting to see if he can keep up these elite numbers.
Odell Beckham Jr.: 2 taragets, 1 reception, 9 yards receiving
We would get another Odell Beckham sighting in this game. He would have a nice quick slant over the middle of the field. His other target was a poorly thrown ball by Tagovailoa. He doesn’t offer much fantasy value.
Malik Washington: 4 targets, 2 receptions, 8 yards receiving , FUM
Rookie Malik Washington would make his worst rookie mistake of the season with a fumble in the early first quarter that would result in a Packers touchdown. He had a few screenplays to set up for him but wasn’t able to produce them with his opportunities. He would remain the primary return man even after the fumble. He doesn’t offer season-long value this year.
Durham Smythe: 1 target, 1 reception, 8 yards receiving
Julian Hill: 1 target, 1 reception, 5 yards receiving
We have the Dolphins two back up tight ends. Julian Hill saw a target in the second quarter of this game, but he doesn’t have enough time on the field with Smith playing well. Durham Smythe saw the last target of the game. Neither offer any fantasy value.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback
Jordan Love : 21/28, 274 yards passing, 2 TD
Packers quarterback Love had a spectacular fantasy outing on Thanksgiving, keeping most of his attempts on the shorter end, which resulted in his receivers making plays. On the game’s first drive, Love would have his worst drive, with a potential pick and fumble to open the game. After that, he would get things under control with solid throws into tight windows and allowing his receivers to make plays in open space. A lot of credit has to be given to his offensive line, who didn’t allow him to get sacked, and he didn’t have a lot of pressure on him. Love remains a QB1 option in fantasy.
Running Back
Josh Jacobs : 19 carries, 43 yards rushing, 1 TD | 4 targets, 4 receptions, 74 yards
The Packers star running back, Josh Jacobs, would be the heart and soul of the offense in this game. On the ground, Jacobs was the ground and pound the Packers needed to win this game. He showed off his physical ability, forcing missed tackles and breaking off defenders. Unfortunately, he wasn’t overly effective on the game but made the most of his important runs. Jacobs showed off some great receiving ability in this game. His best was a 49-yard run in which he forced two missed tackles and made one of the game’s biggest plays. Jacobs has been playing great football and should remain in the RB1 status.
Emanuel Wilson: 2 carries, 20 yards rushing
Backup Emanuel Wilson didn’t see much playing time in this game. He would have two carries in the second quarter after Jacobs would dominate a drive and need to come out for a rest. Wilson would show off some burst, but the lack of touches doesn’t offer much fantasy value.
Chris Brooks: 3 carries, 28 yards rushing | 2 targets, 2 receptions, 1 yard
The Packers’ third running back, Brooks, has been getting more involved recently. The former Dolphin found success against his former team. Brooks had a strong run of 18 yards, showing some explosive strength in the backfield. He was used throughout the game and would have a touch before Emanuel Wilson did. Brooks seems to be splitting the backup role with Wilson, which is terrible for fantasy.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Jayden Reed: 6 targets, 3 receptions, 24 yards receiving, 2 TD | 1 carry, 23 yards
Reed finally broke out of his fantasy slump since the Packers bye week with a two touchdown game. His first was in the first quarter of the game, with some easy separation by the goalie for a two-yard touchdown. His second touchdown was on a wide receiver screen where Reed showed off his speed, and zig zag into the endzone. His gadget-style playing allowed him to get a 20+ yard rush as well. Reed didn’t see much production outside of those three plays, which is concerning. He has been under 30 receiving yards in three straight games, so Reed is very touchdown-dependent at this point of the season.
Tucker Kraft: 7 targets, 6 receptions, 78 yards receiving
The Packers tight end, Tucker Kraft, had a solid night against the Dolphins, showing off his yards-after-catch ability in this game. He had plenty of short area catches that would always result in yards after the catch. Kraft broke off the Dolphins defender and added yards to his receptions. Kraft seems to have benefited without Romeo Doubs as he saw seven targets, his first time since Week 4 of the season. Kraft has some upside if he can see the target share, but he’ll be a boom-or-bust tight-end option.
Christian Watson: 4 targets, 2 receptions, 67 yards receiving
Christian Watson was not a factor in this late-night matchup. Watson was most used as a deep threat in the Packers and saw fewer targets since they were ahead. He had two catches of 20+ yards (21,46). With both catches, Watson was able to find separation from his defenders on both receptions. His one target was a deep pass late in the fourth quarter that Love underthrew. There was also no-call pass interference during the play. He could have had another big game had that gone in his favor. Watson remains a boom-or-bust fantasy FLEX option.
Dontayvion Wicks: 5 targets, 4 receptions, 30 yards receiving
Dontayvion Wicks got an expanded role as Doubs missed this game. Wicks was used as more of the short-area player than the downfield threat. Most of his targets were short curl routes that Wicks would get tackled or break for a few extra yards. Wicks fits better in a Watson role but wasn’t as effective in this game. The Packers also didn’t need to push the ball downfield as much since they were ahead for this entire game. Wicks remains only a desperate FLEX if one of the top three receivers misses time.