Jets @ Dolphins
Final Score: MIA 32 – NYJ 26
Writer: Jesse Maida
Without Breece Hall, the New York Jets offense gained a season-high 402 yards as Aaron Rodgers threw for more than 300 yards for the first time since 2021, which included a three-yard touchdown pass to Davante Adams. This was the 79th time the legendary duo hooked up for a touchdown, passing Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown for fourth most by any quarterback-wide receiver duo in NFL history (including playoffs). Despite a season-best performance by the Jets’ offense, Tua Tagovailoa was able to move the ball with ease against the New York secondary, who were missing Sauce Gardener, leading the Dolphins to a crucial overtime victory, keeping their playoff hopes alive. Meanwhile, the Jets will officially miss the playoffs for a 14th straight year, the longest active drought in all four major U.S. sports.
Two Up
- Tyreek Hill – Saved his best performance when it mattered most. Season-high in fantasy points, receptions, and targets. If you made the playoffs with Tyreek Hill, you’re feeling good.
- Davante Adams – Averaging 17.58 PPR points over the last five weeks. Rock-solid WR2 entering the playoffs with a mid-WR1 weekly ceiling.
One Down
- Braelon Allen – Allen played well and had solid usage, getting 16 touched but split work with Isaiah Davis. It is unlikely Braelon Allen is the league winner you were hoping for, but rather a low-end RB2 if Hall even happens to miss more time.
https://www.twitter.com/MichaelFFlorio/status/1865878235839627359
New York Jets
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers: 27/39, 339 Yards, TD
Rodgers passed for 300+ yards for the first time in 35 games, officially 1,092 days ago. He showed signs of the Rodgers of old, moving well in the pocket and linking with Adams in critical moments, leading the Jets to six scoring drives versus only two punts. The Jets entered the week tied for sixth in the NFL, attempting 35 passes per game. Rodgers surpassed this number against Miami, throwing 39 times for the second week in a row. This is the type of passing volume we love in fantasy football, but with non-existent rushing production, Rodgers still cannot be trusted in one-quarterback leagues as he likely needs 40 pass attempts just to reach his ceiling of a low-end QB1.
Running Back
Braelon Allen: 11 Carries, 43 Yards | 5 Targets, 4 Receptions, 38 Yards
Filling in for the injured Hall, the fourth-round pick out of Wisconsin made his mark to start the game, gaining 33 yards on three touches, including two receptions on the Jets’ opening drive. Allen showcased some tackle-breaking ability early, but overall, it was another inefficient performance on the ground, finishing below four yards per carry for the ninth week in a row. Despite receiving 15 touches, fantasy managers hoping Allen would be their league winner will be left disappointed he split touches with fellow Jets rookie Davis. Entering the game without Hall, the speculation was that Davis would play third and passing downs, with Allen getting early down and goal-line work. However, it was the opposite, with Allen running more routes and Davis getting the red zone work, including a 17-yard rushing score. If Hall continues to miss time, Allen should be viewed as a low-end RB2 going forward, especially with no more bye weeks. However, it is worth noting the Jaguars are on deck, a juicy matchup that will likely give fantasy managers sit/start headaches for the opening round of the playoffs.
Missed Opportunities
- Had a terrible drop on the second drive
Isaiah Davis: 10 Carries, 40 Yards, TD | 6 Targets, 3 Receptions, 27 Yards
After seeing his snap share surprisingly increase to 18% (the previous high was 4%) in Week 13 while receiving four touches, it seemed there was a very good chance Davis would destroy the Allen hype. That’s exactly what happened, as Davis was very involved early, logging a nearly identical first-half split with Allen, playing 14 snaps versus 16 for Allen. Davis also scored a first-half rushing touchdown, the first rushing score of his career, and saw a majority of the red zone work. The trend continued in the second half, with Davis finishing the game playing 52% of snaps versus 56% for Allen. Davis looked solid in his increased role, a role which is unlikely to change if Hall continues to miss time.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Garrett Wilson: 10 Targets, 7 Receptions, 114 Yards
Post-game, Garrett Wilson was asked about missing the playoffs again. His response was, “I don’t feel good.” While Wilson may not feel good, fantasy managers should feel thrilled he provided a terrific bounce-back performance, breaking a three-week mini-slump where he finished outside the top-35 wide receivers each week. Wilson’s touchdown drought continues, having not scored since Week 9 against Houston, but he registered 10 targets for the second week in a row. Since the arrival of Adams, Wilson has produced inconsistently, but he’s still averaging 8.7 targets per week during that span, cementing him as a must-start considering his target volume.
Davante Adams: 11 Targets, 9 Receptions, 109 Yards, TD
Adams caught another touchdown pass this week, the 79th of his career from Aaron Rodgers. Adams has three touchdowns in seven games since joining the Jets and is averaging 17.58 PPR points over the last five weeks, which is mid-WR1 production. Adams made a terrible real-life play by staying in bounds after a 14-yard catch with one minute left when the Dolphins had no timeouts, which could have potentially avoided overtime, but fantasy managers should not care about that. With Rodgers throwing 35+ times a game, both Adams and Wilson are players you’ll want in your lineups going forward.
https://www.twitter.com/snyjets/status/1865876238633427277
Allen Lazard: 1 Target,1 Reception, 18 Yards
Allen Lazard returned to this lineup after missing the last five games due to a chest injury. Lazard got injured in the Jets’ first game with Adams, and fantasy managers were hoping his return would not eat into Adams’ or Wilson’s production. It looks like fantasy managers have absolutely nothing to worry about, as Lazard ended up with more penalties than receptions.
Tyler Conklin: 5 Targets, 3 Receptions, 33 Yards
Hopefully, you aren’t relying on Tyler Conklin heading into the fantasy playoffs.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa: 33/47, 331 Yards, 2 TD | 1 Carry, 3 Yards
Tagovailoa entered Week 14 leading the NFL in completion percentage with 74.5%. Against the Jets without Gardener, Tagovailoa ‘only’ completed 70% of passes, leading his team to a win, thanks to an unstoppable overtime drive. Miami won the coin toss, activating Tua Time, with the Miami quarterback throwing for 67 yards in three minutes, ensuring Rodgers never got the ball back. Since returning from his concussion, Tagovailoa is on fire, boasting an incredible 15:1 touchdown ratio, with a 76% completion rate, averaging 282 yards per game. Tagovailoa entered the afternoon NFL slate as QB3, which should make him a near lock for his fourth straight top-10 weekly finish. He is no longer just a streamer but a legit weapon for your teams in the fantasy playoffs. He doesn’t offer any rushing production, limiting his upside, but with De’Von Achane struggling lately to run the ball, Tagovailoa is throwing 40+ times per game, hitting this number three straight games, turning this once-dead offense into one of the most fantasy-friendly environments.
Running Back
De’Von Achane: 14 Carries, 24 Yards, TD | 7 Targets, 6 Receptions, 45 Yards
With Raheem Mostert inactive, Achane set a career-high in snap share, playing more than 75% of the offensive snaps. Achane was very involved early on, getting five carries and one reception, a 14-yard catch and run, on the first drive. He also dominated the goal line work, rushing four times inside the five-yard on the Dolphins’ first possession, capping the drive with a one-yard score. It was another ugly game on the ground for Achane, managing only 1.7 yards per carry on 14 carries while getting stuffed countless times on short yardage and in the red zone/goal line, which is becoming a trend. It’s been an abysmal stretch for Achane on the ground in the last three games, rushing for only 70 yards on 31 carries, but in this new-look Dolphins passing game, Achane continues to feast as a receiver, catching six balls on seven targets versus the Jets. Achane is almost a lock for five receptions per game, averaging 5.3 catches in his last seven games. Achane will be a locked and loaded top-10 option for the remainder of the fantasy season.
https://www.twitter.com/snyjets/status/1865876238633427277
Jaylen Wright: 2 Carries, 7 Yards | 3 Targets, 2 Receptions, 6 Yards
Jaylen Wright only saw four touches in Mostert’s absence. He will likely only have real value if both Mostert and Achane miss time.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Tyreek Hill: 14 Targets, 10 Receptions, 115 Yards, TD |1 Carry, 6 Yards
Hill is undoubtedly one of the biggest busts this season, but he delivered for fantasy managers this week who were in a must-win scenario. This was his best game of the season, seeing a season-high in targets and receptions while surpassing 100 yards for the first time since Week 1. Tagovailoa didn’t take any downfield shots, but Hill was everywhere else, getting a ton of separation on short and intermediate throws, including a nasty route on his touchdown, which came on a crucial fourth-and-goal. Hill has now scored in four of his last five games, and if you drafted Tyreek Hill in Round 1 and are fortunate enough to make the playoffs, you might just get the elite production you were hoping for during the most important time of the year.
https://www.twitter.com/NFL/status/1865860009822659016
Jaylen Waddle: 12 Targets, 9 Receptions, 99 Yards
Hill was not the only Dolphins’ receiver to return to his dominant self, Jaylen Waddle also scored 20+ PPR fantasy points, securing nine receptions on 12 targets. With Tagovailoa on a heater, Waddle has shown signs of his ceiling, surpassing 20 fantasy points for the second time in three weeks. With Jonnu Smith non-existent (until overtime), Waddle was heavily utilized. It will be very difficult for all four Dolphins’ pass catchers (Hill, Waddle, Smith, Achane) to produce in the same game, but it happened in this game! With Tagovailoa throwing 40+ times a game and a narrow usage tree, it is possible that all four Dolphins can produce going forward, but it is unlikely.
Jonnu Smith: 4 Targets, 3 Receptions, 44 Yards, TD
Fantasy managers who started Smith were extremely lucky. Smith did nothing in regulation except drop a shovel pass, going 60 minutes without a reception and only one target. He was a different animal in overtime, though, ripping off back-to-back catches and runs for first downs, then scoring the game-winning touchdown. As mentioned above with Waddle, all Dolphins seem like fantastic options going forward, but it is unlikely all four produce strongly in the same game, providing some risk with Waddle and Smith. However, it is difficult to bench him after this incredible four-week stretch unless you have a top-five option at tight end.