Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In what could only be called the most Jameis Winston performance of all time, Winston put up a combined eight touchdowns and turnovers. After losing Mike Evans to an early hamstring injury, the Bucs rolled out the kitchen sink as Winston connected with a variety of players I didn’t know existed en route to a 38-35 victory against the Colts. The Bucs out-gained the Colt, 542 to 309, but the Colts managed to take advantage of the short fields they were given, putting up 17 points off of turnovers.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback
- Jacoby Brissett: 19/36, 251 yards, 2 TD, 1 sack | 4 carries, 26 yards
Even in a game where the Colts put up 35 points, Jacoby Brissett was the game manager that the Colts have asked him to be. When given a short field, Brissett did a good job of leading the Colts to put points on the board. Unfortunately, following Winston’s third interception, which set the Colts up on the Tampa Bay 25, they totaled -4 yards and the drive ended with a missed 44-yard field goal that would’ve tied the game. That drive kind of epitomizes Brissett as a quarterback. He’s a safe option, but when the time needed him to be more than a game manager, he fell short. Brissett finishes the fantasy season against the Saints and the Panthers, but he’s not the type of quarterback I want to roll out in the semifinals or finals.
Running Backs
- Marlon Mack: 13 carries, 38 yards, 1 TD
- Nyheim Hines: 4 carries, 1 yard | 5 targets, 4 receptions, 24 yards, 1 fumble lost
Marlon Mack made a miraculous return from a fractured hand and found the end zone against a good Bucs run defense. The Colts did not test Mack’s hand in the pass game, as that role was handed by Nyheim Hines. With the game in shootout mode, Hines saw the most snaps at 56%, followed by Mack at 41%. Jordan Wilkins saw just 12% of the snaps and handled one carry. While I’m shying away from using Mack against the Saints, the performance gives me confidence to potentially fire him up in Week 16 against the Panthers.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
- Marcus Johnson: 7 targets, 3 receptions, 105 yards, 1 TD
- Zach Pascal: 9 targets, 5 receptions, 74 yards, 1 TD
- Jack Doyle: 6 targets, 2 receptions, 27 yards
- Parris Campbell: 5 targets, 3 receptions, 12 yards
With T.Y. Hilton remaining out, Marcus Johnson became the Colts’ big play-maker. Following Winston’s first interception, Brissett dropped a bomb to Johnson for 46 yards to put the Colts on the boards. While Johnson caught just two balls the rest of the game, one was another deep ball for a 50 yard gain and Johnson drew a pass interference penalty that led to a 45 yard gain. While I don’t think you’ll be able to play Johnson in season-long leagues, his big-play ability makes for a very intriguing DFS play down the stretch.
Zach Pascal led the team in targets, however, seven of those nine targets were of the short variety. As long as Hilton remains out, Pascal should continue to see the lion’s share of the Colts’ targets. Moving forward, the Colts face the Saints and the Panthers, who have allowed the seventh-most and 15th-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts, making Pascal a flex play.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback
- Jameis Winston: 33/45, 456 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs, 1 sack | 6 carries, 5 yards, 1 TD
In what other realm, other than fantasy, can a person be relatively bad at his job and yet be considered very good at his job at the same time? Jameis Winston leads the league in turnovers and yet still sits as QB6 in terms of fantasy scoring. Winston put up 456 passing yards despite suffering what HC Bruce Arians called a “little bitty fracture” in his right thumb during the game, which caused him to struggle to grip the ball. In drives in which the Bucs didn’t turn the ball over, Winston managed to lead the team to score on six out of eight possessions, with the team punting the ball just twice. This game epitomizes what Jameis Winston is as a quarterback – he has so much raw talent that he tries to be superman on every play and that gets him into trouble. For the last two weeks of the fantasy playoffs, the Bucs face the Lions and the Texans, making Winston a QB1 as those teams are in the top-third of allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. Yikes.
Running Backs
- Ronald Jones: 11 carries, 36 yards | 5 targets, 4 receptions, 23 yards
- Peyton Barber: 11 carries, 34 yards | 2 targets, 2 receptions, 19 yards
- Dare Ogunbowale: 5 targets, 5 receptions, 48 yards
Just one week removed from Ronald Jones missing a blitz pickup and hitting the bench, the Bucs running back situation went back to a full-on RBBC. Jones had the most touches of the three but was on the field for less than 50% of the running back snaps. In addition to his 59 total yards, Jones had a nice 11-yard carry called back due to an offensive holding penalty. For what it’s worth, Jones is far more explosive than Peyton Barber and I find it interesting that Arians can look past Jameis Winston’s mistakes, but seems to come down very hard on Jones.
Peyton Barber did his thing and plodded along. The final line looks similar to that of Jones, but 13 of Barber’s yards came on the last drive of the game, after a failed Colts’ onside kick.
Dare Ogunbowale served as the passing down back and despite losing a fumble in the first quarter, his workload remained normal compared to previous weeks. To me, it was interesting to see Ogunbowale’s role remain the same, as I expected Arians to bench him following the mistake, but that wasn’t the case.
For all three of these backs, they have decent matchups over the next two weeks, but with none of them getting even 50% of the team’s snaps or workload, it will be difficult to trust any of them for fantasy purposes.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
- Mike Evans: 2 targets, 1 reception, 61 yards, 1 TD
- Chris Godwin: 9 targets, 7 receptions, 91 yards
- O.J. Howard: 5 targets, 4 receptions, 73 yards
- Breshad Perriman: 5 targets, 3 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD
- Justin Watson: 8 targets, 5 receptions, 59 yards, 1 TD
- Cameron Brate: 4 targets, 4 receptions, 30 yards, 1 TD
This game had all the makings of a monster Mike Evans game, complete with the 61-yard touchdown bomb in the first quarter. Unfortunately, Evans sustained a hamstring injury on the play when he avoided the cornerback’s tackle attempt, which ended Evans’ day. I hope for all the fantasy owners out there (myself included) that this is only a one-week injury as the upcoming schedule is really strong.
Chris Godwin’s role didn’t increase like I thought it would once Evans left the game, as Winston wanted to continue to attack the outside against the Colts. Godwin still ended the game by leading the team in targets, receptions, and yards, but if I told you Winston threw for 456 yards and neither Evans or Godwin topped 100, you’d be surprised. Winston looked for Godwin deep down the field twice on the day, connecting once for 28 yards and having the other throw intercepted. Moving forward, Godwin remains a must-start option, especially if Evans were to miss Week 15.
O.J. Howard didn’t even have a target until late in the second quarter, but Winston connected with him twice on deep passes in the second half for 60 yards. Those two plays epitomized what all of us drafters were chasing coming into the year – his big-play ability. Despite putting up his biggest yardage output of the year, it’s very difficult to start trusting Howard this deep into the season.
With Evans’s early exit, Winston looked to Breshad Perriman and Justin Watson to pick up some slack. Coming into the game, Watson had just two targets on the year, so he picked up the lion’s share of the targets that would’ve gone to Evans. If Evans were to miss Week 15, I wouldn’t consider either wideout for season-long, but Watson makes an intriguing DFS punt.
Cameron Brate found the end zone once and was oh so close to scoring two today, as he was stopped on the one-yard line. Despite his decent fantasy day, it’s tough to trust a tight end in a committee to put up consistent fantasy production.
-Rich Holman, @RichardoPL83