Dolphins @ Bills
Final Score: Bills 32, Dolphins 29
Writer: Brett Ford (@fadethatman on Twitter)
In a clash of AFC East (and fantasy) heavyweights, the Buffalo Bills came away victorious over the Miami Dolphins as Josh Allen led his team back from an eight-point fourth-quarter deficit to earn the ever-important victory over his division rivals. The Buffalo Special Teams unit stepped up, working like a well-oiled Olympic Curling team to clean the spot for Tyler Bass‘ game-winning field goal for the 32-29 victory.
The Bills cleaned their way into the playoffs 😂
Tyler Bass kicks the game winner to a snowy classic
Dolphins +7 💰
OVER 44.5 💰
Bills 32, Dolphins 29 pic.twitter.com/xcT5P95AUu
— BetOnline.ag (@betonline_ag) December 18, 2022
Nearly every fantasy asset hit the mark in this entertaining Saturday night affair. The weather didn’t impact the game nearly as much as many predicted and we saw Josh Allen wreak havoc while Tua Tagavailoa and his vaunted receivers did their thing on the opposite side.
Let’s dig in.
Tua Tagovailoa: 17/30, 234 Yards, 2 TD | 1 Carry, 7 Yards
Tua Tagovailoa is SO CLOSE to being considered an elite fantasy quarterback. The Dolphins’ quarterback completed 17-for-30 passes for 234 yards and two touchdowns and was pretty darn good against a very talented Bills defense. He made several great throws, including an absolute dime to Tyreek Hill for a late score to put his team ahead late in the third quarter.
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) December 18, 2022
However, he still has a tendency to underthrow his receivers which costs him yardage and in some cases touchdowns. Even on his long touchdown strike to Jaylen Waddle, he underthrew the receiver, forcing Waddle to hold up his route and come back to the ball. Luckily for the Dolphins, the dynamic receiver was still able to break out and score but if he were hit in stride it would have been a much easier house call.
Jaylen Waddle turns on the jets pic.twitter.com/SwXf3NrFel
— alex (@highlghtheaven) December 18, 2022
Raheem Mostert: 17 Carries, 136 Yards | 2 Targets, 1 Reception, 20 Yards
Salvon Ahmed: 6 Carries, 43 Yards, TD
Alec Ingold: 1 Carry, 2 Yards | 2 Targets, 1 Reception, 7 Yards
Raheem Mostert was Raheem Monster. That is until Salvon Ahmed decided to snake a touchdown from his backfield counterpart. Mostert ripped off a 67-yard run and would have had a touchdown on the play if he could have broken just one more tackle. He gashed the Bills’ defense for 8.0 yards per carry and received 17 carries. He added one catch on two targets for 20 yards, as he finished as an outstanding fantasy option for those who could stomach starting him.
.@RMos_8Ball powers through for 68 yards!!
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) December 18, 2022
Salvon Ahmed entered Saturday with just five carries for 14 rushing yards throughout the entire season. On Saturday, he tripled his season rushing output, vultured a touchdown, and ran well on limited opportunities. With Jeff Wilson Jr. still sidelined and Mostert with an unreliable profile as far as injury history is concerned, Ahmed could be seen as a valuable handcuff or bench stash in the fantasy playoffs.
salvon ahmed tuddy pic.twitter.com/YVFjvIfTKq
— josh houtz (@houtz) December 18, 2022
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Jaylen Waddle: 7 Targets, 3 Receptions, 114 Yards, TD
Tyreek Hill: 13 Targets, 9 Receptions, 69 Yards, TD
Cedrick Wilson Jr.: 2 Targets, 1 Reception, 21 Yards
Mike Gesicki: 1 Target, 1 Reception, 5 Yards
Durham Smythe: 1 Target, 1 reception, 1 Fumble (Recovered)
Trent Sherfield: 1 Target
Braylon Sanders: 1 Target
After back-to-back letdown weeks from Jaylen Waddle, fantasy managers were paid off for their fortitude with 114 yards and a touchdown on just three receptions. It could have been even more if his quarterback didn’t underthrow him… but that’s beside the point. He should be in just about every starting lineup where he is rostered as a strong WR2 option.
Tyreek Hill has emerged as the Dolphins’ top pass-catching option, despite my claims to the contrary earlier in the season. Hill pulled in nine catches on 13 targets, nearly doubling Waddle’s usage. Though he finished with less yardage, it’s been made clear that Hill is the alpha of this offense and that the Dolphins will look to create opportunities for him to create in open space, where he excels. If you have him, you start him.
Mike Gesicki was targeted just once. Don’t stream him.
Josh Allen: 25/40, 304 Yards, 4 TD | 10 Carries, 77 Yards, 1 Fumble (Lost)
Josh Allen was back to being a god among quarterbacks. Start him.
What else do you want from a Josh Allen analysis? Fine. Here’s some highlights.
Quintin Morris scored the first TD of his career! 🚀🚀🚀pic.twitter.com/PZD2SAxTuC
— OutOfSightSports🚀™️ (@OOSSports) December 18, 2022
Josh Allen doing everything he can pic.twitter.com/CUPEpxSc4n
— Bussin' With The Boys 🐺 (@BussinWTB) December 18, 2022
SUPERMAN JOSH ALLEN TIES THE GAME
— Luke Sawhook 🪚🪝 (@lukesawhook) December 18, 2022
Devin Singletary: 13 Carries, 42 Yards | 4 Targets, 3 Receptions, 28 Yards
James Cook: 5 Carries, 34 Yards | 3 Targets, 2 Receptions, 5 Yards, TD
Nyheim Hines: 1 Target, 1 Reception, 10 Yards, TD
Devin Singletary fantasy managers should have been wary coming into this game. Rookie running back James Cook is hot on Singletary’s heels. Cook was on the field for 28 offensive snaps while Singletary was out there for 46, but the rookie was more dynamic and has shown playmaking ability, catching a touchdown to end the first half in this one.
Exactly what Brandon Beane drafted James Cook for. Josh Allen is the ultimate risk taker. He uncorks this with :01 left on clock after starting the play with :08. Half over if it’s incomplete. Wow play. pic.twitter.com/sTNhaWcz6f
— Matt Parrino (@MattParrino) December 18, 2022
It’s difficult to consider Singletary a viable start in fantasy because of how pass-heavy the Bills’ offense typically operates. Even if the game script called upon a run-heavy approach, the Bills are more likely to give James Cook the opportunity to build up his experience in a blowout than they would be to lean on the veteran. It’s been made clear that the Bills prefer Cook (and to some extent Ny’heim Hines) in the passing game, so that leaves Singletary with early-down runs… and very little else.
At this point, Cook is a speculative flex play and gets a small bump in PPR formats, but still doesn’t quite reach the volume that managers would want from their RB2 in the starting lineup.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Stefon Diggs: 1 Carry | 9 Targets, 5 Receptions, 60 Yards
Dawson Knox: 8 Targets, 6 Receptions, 98 Yards, TD
Gabe Davis: 6 Targets, 4 Receptions, 56 Yards
Isaiah McKenzie: 5 Targets, 2 Receptions, 24 Yards
Quintin Morris: 1 Target, 1 Reception, 14 Yards, TD
Cole Beasley: 1 Target, 1 Reception, 9 Yards
Stefon Diggs was well-covered most of the night by Xavien Howard and the Dolphins’ defense, however, it came at the expense of other pass-catchers, namely Dawson Knox, working open and making plays. Though Diggs was held to “just” five catches for 60 yards on nine targets, Josh Allen was able to work through his progressions and find several different receivers, with nine Bills catching at least one pass.
Knox had the big night for the Buffalo offense, pulling in six passes for a season-high 98 yards and the game-tying score late in the game. Knox gained most of his yardage on a 45-yard on a play-action crosser where he leaked behind the linebacker, finding the soft spot of what looked like a Miami zone. With a combined 10 catches on 15 targets and a touchdown in each of his last two games, Knox is a top-seven tight end option for the rest of the season.
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 18, 2022
From a personal standpoint, Gabe Davis is one of my biggest misses of the fantasy season. Davis grabbed four touchdowns in the first five weeks of the season, but since then has been more bust than boom. Davis has recorded double-digit (PPR) fantasy points just once in the Bills’ last eight games. At this point, if you’ve survived this deep into the postseason with Davis on your roster, he’s likely been on your bench. I would probably keep him there through the final three weeks of the year.
Cole Beasley’s arrival makes Isaiah McKenzie completely un-roster able. Quintin Morris caught a touchdown, but only further bolsters the case for Knox as a no-brainer start at tight end (he was in the game for Knox on that play).