What We Saw: Week 15

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Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos

Final Score: 31-13

Writer: Geoff Ulrich (@thefantasygrind)

This game was shaping up to be a close affair at the start. The Colts took an early lead on an Anthony Richardson rushing score and were up two scores. They were about to go up 20-7 after Jonathan Taylor took a handoff for a long score, but he inexplicably let go of the ball on the one-yard line.

The Colts never recovered. After giving up the lead, their offense made a mistake after mistake as the Broncos ended the day with two INTs and three fumble recoveries (one being Taylor’s). If you had Jonathan Taylor in fantasy, I’m sorry. It’s one of the most ridiculous plays we’ve seen from a player of his calibre in a while.

Three Up

Bo Nix – Really, did not have the greatest day from a real-life perspective but did throw 3 TDs and chipped in a few rush yards as well.
Courtland Sutton – 9 targets led the Broncos. It was efficient, but he caught a TD and saved his fantasy owners.
Michael Pittman – Nine Targets and six catches to lead the Colts. A nice day, although the game script (aka the Taylor fumble) helped.

Three Down

Jonathan Taylor – Taylor is still going to be the main back, but he legitimately cost his team the game and his owners a TD.
Devaughn Vele – One target and no catches. He looked like he was emerging as the number two in this offense and is now a pure role-player
Javonte Williams – Not the lead back anymore and has no juice left. Useless for fantasy

Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback

Anthony Richardson: 17/38, 172 yards, 2 INTs. 7 carries, 46 yards, TD.

Richardson looked like he was on his way to a career day after the first quarter. He bullied his way to a long-rushing TD and had the Denver defense on their heels. Then the wheels fell off everywhere for the Colts. Richardson had to drop back more and try to make some plays with his arm, which is not his game. He threw two INTs, had zero passing TDs, and again had a completion % well under 50%.

You can live with that with Richardson when he gets the long TD pass, but when he doesn’t, it’s not great for real life or fantasy. While there aren’t a lot of takeaways for him from this game, he still has a great slot receiver in Josh Downs to work with, so as long as he’s healthy, Richardson has upside for the final two weeks of the playoffs.

This game had a lot of what-ifs involved with it, and the biggest would have been what kind of day Richardson might have ended with if he could have taken a few more carries with the lead late in the game.

Notes

May have lost deep threat Alec Pierce going forward, which will hurt his upside as Adonai Mitchell has been a bust to date

Running Back

Jonathan Taylor: 22 carries, 107 yards. 1 reception, 4 yards.

It’s hard to put into words what happened to Taylor out there. The Colts had the perfect game script for him to deliver a huge day for fantasy owners. They got the lead, had the Denver offense on their heels, and were feeding Taylor, who was making big gains against the Broncos’ top-ranked defense. Then he took a handoff 41 yards and decided he needed to let go of the ball directly before he crossed the goal line. That led to a touchback and gave Denver the ball back down six instead of 13.

Things just weren’t the same afterward. Taylor is going to keep being the focal piece of this Colts’ offense, maybe even more so given how inaccurate Richardson is, but it will be hard to move on from that gaff.

Notes

Missed out on a gimme 41-yard TD and likely cost the Colts the game. No notes.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Michael Pittman: 6 receptions, 58 yards, 9 targets

Pittman probably had the best day of any of the Colts’ offensive players, although that’s not necessarily a huge compliment. His six receptions yielded less than 10 yards per catch, which isn’t how you want to see the bigger-bodied receiver used. The volume was nice, but Denver kept Pittman in front of them the entire game and didn’t allow any big plays.

Even the volume spike with Pittman is hard to trust, as the game script worked directly in his favor. Going forward, I’d expect Downs to be the better big-play option and Pittman to suffer if the pass attempts go down.

Notes

His best play was a 17-yard catch and run. The rest were just simple possession throws, so his route tree was inspiring, and he’s not being used much downfield.

Josh Downs: 3 receptions, 32 yards, 8 targets

This was a disappointing day for Downs. It was a tough matchup on paper, but after the Browns destroyed this secondary a couple of weeks ago, I think people rightfully expected a little more from Downs, who had one nice catch and run for 22 yards and then did nothing afterward.

Downs is still the Number 1 or 1A option in this offense, but he’s a weekly boom or bust option regardless of the matchup, thanks to the Colts QB situation and their run-first mentality.

Notes

Was closer to a split with Pittman in targets after being ahead of him in previous games

Kylen Granson: 3 receptions, 47 yards, 4 targets

Granson poked through with a decent game. He’s not super viable for fantasy unless you’re in a super deep league that places some premium on TEs, but if Alec Pierce misses time, then he could become the third primary target in an offense that doesn’t have a ton of depth at the moment.

He’s a decent receiver and made some plays. That said, I wouldn’t get too excited about Anthony Richardson’s third read

Denver Broncos

Quarterback

Bo Nix: 20/33, 3TDs, 3INTs, 8 carries, 23 yards

Nix didn’t have that much better of a day from Richardson from an efficiency standpoint. He only completed 60% of his passes and threw three INTs, which is rare from a QB from the winning team, especially one that wins by more than two TDs.

Still, he was accurate enough when it mattered in the red zone and came through for a nice for fantasy purposes. Nix has turned into one of the more reliable week-to-week fantasy QBs and showed why again here as he chipped in yards with his legs and made the most of his red zone trips.

Notes

Didn’t break free for a big run, but the 8 carries were a big bump up in usage from previous weeks.

Running Back

Jaleel McLaughlin: 7 carries, 21 yards. 3 receptions, 13 yards

This was a big game for McLaughlin in some respects. The Broncos have been rotating RBs back and forth all season, but Jaleel got the start again and out-carried Williams 7-6 and Estime 7-5. None of the backs did much, and Estime still looks like the best early down runner, but McLaughlin led the RB group in rush yards and receiving yards. He was mostly bottled up this week but should get the first crack in the Broncos next game and is the only viable back to think about starting for fantasy from Denver.

Notes

Would really benefit if one of the other two RBs went down

Javonte Williams: 6 carries, 15 yards. 2 receptions, 8 yards, 3 targets

As discussed above, Williams is pretty dead for fantasy purposes. He doesn’t have the burst that McLaughlin does, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Estime start to take his carries away as the playoff loom.

Notes

Not even a worthy emergency start now.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Courtland Sutton: 3 receptions, 32 yards, 9 targets

Sutton is established as the clearcut primary read in this offense and showed it again this week. Nine targets led the offense, and they leaned on him to get back in the game when needed. It wasn’t the greatest day, as he and Nix weren’t on the same page a ton, but he got himself wide open on the late-game TD pass to ice the game. The Broncos just don’t have a viable secondary option, so Sutton is going to keep getting targeted, week-in, week-out.

Notes

Poor day but beat coverage on the TD pass in the 4th quarter

Marvin Mims: 4 receptions, 20 yards, 4 targets

Mims had an interesting day. He didn’t make any huge plays, and most of his usage did come around the line of scrimmage. However, he was second on the team in targets and caught all four of the balls thrown his way. Maybe it’s nothing, but the Broncos need a legit slot option to give teams something else to think about besides Sutton, so maybe this is the start of a Mims breakthrough.

Notes

Only had one carry this week but does have some upside from his usage as a rusher

Devaughn Vele: 0 receptions, 1 target

No one took a bigger step back than Vele this week for fantasy. He looked like he was separating and becoming the Broncos’ WR2, but no catches in a game where the Broncos trailed early isn’t a great signal. The 27-year-old rookie can’t be relied on at this point.

Notes