Raiders @ Colts
Final Score: Raiders 23, Colts 20
Writer: Matthew Bevins (@MattQbList on Twitter)
The week was mired in more CPVOD related news, as Carson Wentz’s week both ended and began with a positive COVID result. Wentz was able to play under the new COVID guidelines, but the game was still slightly out of hand for the Colts, as the hapless Colts control their own destiny and once again are the first losers, as they couldn’t get the job done against the Raiders. This Colts squad, from the few games I’ve watched through, is completely incapable of running any form of a pro offense without Jonathan Taylor taking the offense squarely in his hands. While the Raiders are a running joke in the league, they’re starting to look like they may have a potentially formidable offense in the years to come, as Josh Jacobs is looking the part of the lead rusher we have been waiting for, and a piece or two of offensive firepower may be all the Raiders need to worry all AFC opponents. Let’s dive in and see what fantasy value can be gleaned here.
Las Vegas Raiders
Quarterback
Derek Carr: 24/31, 255 yards, TD, 2 INT
Marcus Mariota: 0/1 | 3 carries, 16 yards
The Raiders haven’t had a franchise quarterback for decades, and they still may not, but Derek Carr is making the case that just maybe he’s finally become a leader of the squad here in Las Vegas. The youth of the squad seems to be wrapped around his finger, and while the two picks made in the course of the Colts win were a bit worrisome, one seemed less on the quarterback than it did an extremely well-done showcase by Darius Leonard.
Carr doesn’t make too many mistakes, as is shown by being tied for 22nd prior to the stats of today’s games for interceptions, however, he now has five picks over the course of the last five games. Carr truly needs a game-changing receiver, and while Hunter Renfrow may end up being the trade-in version of Julian Edelman, he’s not fully there yet, but the rapport building into next season could be extremely helpful.
The final minute of the game saw Derek Carr mostly poised in a hostile space, where he helped drive the Raiders into field goal territory where they broke Colts’ hearts. While the Renfrow reception in the final minute was a touchdown turned into a field goal, the pass was thrown over the top to Renfrow in a huck of beauty, and something to be rewatched over. The next season in Las Vegas will center around the Hunter and Derek connection, as both are free agents in the year 2023.
Derek Carr goes deep and is picked off by Rodgerspic.twitter.com/H4UrCrRFbL://t.co/z8gv7CjicK
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 2, 2022
Derek Carr throws another INT, #Colts star Darius Leonard with the pick.pic.twitter.com/Dc4EZhVPIv
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 2, 2022
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs: 16 carries, 63 yards, TD | 4 targets, 4 receptions, 17 yards
Jalen Richard: 1 carry, 4 yards | 1 target, 1 reception, 19 yards
Peyton Barber: 6 carries, 3 yards | 2 targets, 2 receptions, 9 yards
The running game in Las Vegas has been enigmatic from the get-go this season, as the expectation from the end of last season into the early preseason drafting room this year was that Josh Jacobs is overrated and/or injury-prone. With value falling below the second round, Jacobs has lined the holiday table with various feast-worthy delights over the last two weeks, as his discussions with the coaching staff have finally led to some beliefs in his talents.
Jacobs, over the course of the last two weeks, has rushed 43 times for just under 200 yards and has once again made the decision on choosing him in the early rounds of fantasy leagues a cumbersome decision. Jacobs wasn’t a massive offensive leader in this game, and the glut of his work seemed to come during the first half of the game, where the touchdown and most of his 63 yards rushing was earned. When you get to the end of your fantasy playoff road, that little touchdown rush and a small breath of life in yardage may be all that you need. Jacobs will muscle for additional yardage and wants the rock, and that’s half the battle.
The lone worry going into next year’s fantasy selections is the ability for Jacob’s to be an offensive standout in the weeks where Derek Carr needs a rusher willing to carry the entire offense on his back. In the second half of this game, Jacobs made this a more worrisome endgame, as his number was called less and less, and his rushing average dipped below four to end the game. That said, there’s still upside in Jacobs to see himself into a top-2o overall back again, going into 2022.
Looking at the box score, it’s also very clear the touch count is not being divided up much and is absolutely not being ceded to Jalen Richard or Peyton Barber. The two combined only saw seven combined touches, and Richard finds his role mostly rolled out in third-down roles and protection plays.
JOSH JACOBS GETS THE RAIDERS ON THE BOARD🔥
pic.twitter.com/TU00zrmybF— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) January 2, 2022
Wide Receivers
Zay Jones: 10 targets, 8 receptions, 120 yards
Hunter Renfrow: 9 targets, 7 receptions, 76 yards
Foster Moreau: 1 target, 1 reception, 9 yards
Desean Jackson: 3 targets, 1 reception, 5 yards
Bryan Edwards: 2 targets
The 1a/1b in Las Vegas is very clear on the wide receiver pecking order, with Zay Jones firmly leapfrogging the odd web of Bryan Edwards/Foster Moreau/Desean Jackson, as he saw a third of Derek Carr’s targets, and has begun to peak quietly into top-30 or so PPR value over the last month or so.
Zay Jones, Weeks 15 thru 17:
Week 15: 9 targets, 6 receptions, 67 yards
Week 16: 8 targets, 6 receptions, 50 yards
Week 17: 10 targets, 8 receptions, 120 yards
These are some large numbers and they show that Carr has found a reliable consistent target threat who is open for his passes.
Meanwhile, Bryan Edwards had two whole targets this week and didn’t catch a single one of them. Closely behind him, Hunter Renfrow is continuing to be the target of choice in the redzone, and on long breakout routes where defenders are slipping in close to the line on rush protection. Renfrow is dynamic, and fun to watch, and made his presence felt again numerous times in Week 17.
His final line includes a touchdown, but he likely got one torn away from him late in the game. With a minute left in the game, Carr hit Renfrow with a touch pass over a defender’s hand, where Renfrow ended up losing his balance and hitting the turf with a glancing knee as he rolled off the turf, then into the endzone. While initially called a touchdown, the play was called back for just a great overall pass sans touchdown result due to a defender apparently touching him. Renfrow ended the game with a hearty PPR output regardless and leaves himself again high up in our points per reception hearts.
Huge upset win for the #Raiders, Hunter Renfrow goes 60 yards!pic.twitter.com/gvDk9cJMcj
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 2, 2022
HUNTER RENFROW IS IN🔥
pic.twitter.com/MnQXeTwT6d— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) January 2, 2022
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback
Carson Wentz: 16/27, 148 yards, TD | 3 carries, 10 yards
Carson Wentz had his COVID woes going into the week as we mentioned but still managed to make it on the field this week. While admirable, there wasn’t much to be gained by even having him on the field, as Wentz didn’t even factor much into the final course of this game. While many may find this a bit sour, it surprises me there is an NFL team still giving Wentz the chance to operate their NFL squad, as every game I’ve had the pleasure to watch, he’s completely underwhelmed, being mostly a pitch and catch machine for the best offensive player in football, Jonathan Taylor. Remembering the cost it took the get him off the Eagles, it’s understandable the Colts want to make this one work, but after watching the Colts lose out to a team many would claim are inferior, the questions should be asked not only if Wentz is a usable fantasy asset, but if he is truly the Colts’ quarterback of the future.
Wentz had fewer interceptions but also took fewer risks in this game, and the 27 pass attempts seem to mostly be a way to pull defenses off of Jonathan Taylor. The lone touchdown pass was a tip-drill to T.Y Hilton that could have easily been a tide-swing if the pass ended up going directly to one of the two defenders instead of off a receiver into the waiting arms of shocked Hilton.
"Don't mind if I do"
-T.Y. Hilton(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/CacBPLoMjA
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) January 2, 2022
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor: 20 carries, 108 yards, TD | 2 targets, 1 reception, 6 yards
Nyheim Hines: 2 carries, 4 yards | 4 targets, 4 receptions, 14 yards
Deon Jackson: 1 carry
Jonathan Taylor is just on another level from all other offensive players in this league. Over the course of the last month, Taylor has combined for over 500 rushing yards and has done this while all major defensive battles have likely built and honed in on him in attempts to cut him off. Taylor showcases on almost every rush the ease in which he can pick up three to five yards before he’s even hit, and that sort of talent is a fantasy gold mine.
Taylor added an additional touchdown to his stat total as well this week, making it four touchdowns over the prior four weeks. There isn’t much left to be said about Taylor that hasn’t been said, but the fact of the matter is that Taylor, in just about a year’s time, has bubbled up from somewhere in the lower first round/early second round of picks to the likely top pick overall this year. Taylor took his pinball act into the endzone this week and likely would have caused even more damage had the Colts not played most of the game on their heels.
🙌JONATHAN TAYLOR ANYTIME TD🙌#LVvsIND
pic.twitter.com/encRYHaqlm— PFF NFL Podcast (@PFFNFLPod) January 2, 2022
Wide Receivers
Michael Pittman: 6 targets, 6 receptions, 47 yards
T.Y Hilton: 3 targets, 1 reception, 45 yards, TD
Mo Alie-Cox: 5 targets, 3 receptions, 28 yards
Zach Pascal: 2 targets, 1 reception, 8 yards
Dezmon Patton: 1 target
Ashton Dulin: 1 target
The core of the Colts is likely going to be Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor for the next 3-5 years, and Pittman once again gained the mantle for being the highest targeted receiver for Carson Wentz. While Pittman gained himself a serviceable 10 .7 PPR points, the worry for me is what is laid bare in this box score. Pittman has been the targets leader but has only eclipsed 100 yards receiving twice this whole season, and only once since the beginning of October. It’s hard to put up consistently solid numbers when a quarter of the targets are going to the RBs, however.
The quest for a quarterback will likely be on the mind of the Colts front office for the next two seasons, and that would make me hopeful that they could make a more dynamic and higher fantasy ceiling for the pairing of Pittman and Taylor if the cover is twisted off the proverbial jar. The lone touchdown pass made by T.Y. Hilton in this one was on an absolutely insane tip play that Hilton looked almost confused about getting, like a sibling getting a present on their brother’s or sister’s birthday.
— Matthew Bevins (@MattQbList on Twitter)