Buccaneers @ Saints
Final Score: Buccaneers 26, Saints 9
Writer: Justin Havelock (@HavelockJustin on Twitter)
One of the first major division battles of the season took place this week, although in somewhat lacklustre form. The Buccaneers and Saints both came into Week 4 with a 2-1 record and were eager to take control of the NFC South around the quarter mark of the season.
Three Up
- Alvin Kamara – Came back from suspension and hogged all the targets
- Baker Mayfield – Continues to turn back the clock and lead the Bucs to victory
- Chris Godwin – Took advantage of an injury to Mike Evans and put up a stellar day
Three Down
- Derek Carr – Maybe he should have taken a week off to rest his ailing shoulder?
- Chris Olave – Not entirely his fault, but a poor game nonetheless
- Mike Evans – Suffered a hamstring injury early in the second half but will have a full week to recover with a bye in Week 5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield: 25/32, 246 Yards, 3 TD, INT | 8 Carries, 31 Yards
There was a lot of pressure on Baker Mayfield this week, both on and off the field. Mayfield’s resurgence continued though as the former first overall pick led his team to the win. The performance may not have been the most dominant of the week, but Mayfield is proof that a quarterback who can consistently move the sticks will produce. The Bucs are on a bye in Week 5, so with an extra week of practice and a chance for this offense to get fully healthy this team could be poised to take a leap forward sooner than some may have expected.
Running Back
Rachaad White: 15 Carries, 56 Yards | 3 Targets, 3 Receptions, 22 Yards
Rachaad White puzzled me, as he often does. At 3.73 YPC, his rushing production against the Saints was nothing particularly noteworthy overall, however, there were several moments where he showed some real burst.
This play was vintage Rachaad White for me. After being stuffed right off of the handoff on his last touch, White showed off some wheels here to set up a key 1st & Goal that would give the Bucs the lead.
Rachaad White put the brakes on 💨
📺: #TBvsNO on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/Jq9JHUeqb6 pic.twitter.com/mcmNpajcK5— NFL (@NFL) October 1, 2023
White looked like he may be slowly putting it all together, so keep a close eye on a potential breakout here. At least for now, the backfield belongs to him and as we well know availability is one of the best abilities in football.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn: 9 Carries, 16 Yards | 1 Target, 1 Reception, 3 Yards
Ke’Shawn Vaughn had to compete with his quarterback on the ground. Sort of. Most of Vaughn’s carries came late in the game during ‘garbage time’, while Mayfield’s were all scrambles rather than designed plays. Still, if Mayfield keeps running this well and/or White does emerge as the lead back, Vaughn may not have much of a role going forward.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Chris Godwin: 11 Targets, 8 Receptions, 114 Yards
Chris Godwin continued to build on the chemistry he’s shown with Mayfield this season without Evans on the field. There were a few miscommunications where Godwin and Mayfield found themselves on different pages of the playbook, the aforementioned bye week could possibly be an easy fix for that.
Deven Thompkins: 1 Carry, 11 Yards | 4 Targets, 4 Receptions, 45 Yards, TD
Sophomore wide receiver Deven Thompkins may have just had a breakout game. While the rookie Trey Palmer might garner more attention from this matchup, it was Thompkins who drew my eye far more often here. He looked explosive and shifty, and he’s earned more playing time thanks to his solid performance on special teams thus far in his early career. Speed was his calling card in college, and he’s a name to keep an eye on in fantasy circles.
Mike Evans: 3 Targets, 3 Receptions, 40 Yards
Mike Evans left early in the second half with a hamstring injury. The Bucs have their bye in Week 5 though, so depending on the severity of the injury, Evans may not wind up missing a game.
Cade Otton: 4 Targets, 3 Receptions, 13 Yards, TD
Late in the second quarter, tight end Cade Otton was left wide open over the middle for a short pass from Mayfield and was able to walk right into the endzone for the opening touchdown. Otton also led the team in snaps (71) and tied with Godwin in routes run (35) which is always worth keeping an eye on from a tight end.
Trey Palmer: 3 Targets, 2 Receptions, 6 Yards, TD
Rakim Jarrett: 1 Target, 1 Reception, 3 Yards
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
Derek Carr: 23/37, 127 Yards | 2 Carries, 1 Yard, Fumble (Lost)
Jameis Winston: 0/1, INT
After suffering a shoulder injury last week that was initially feared to be season-ending, Derek Carr started this game for the Saints. That might not have been the right call for either Carr or the Saints though.
For the second week in a row, Carr finished last in Average Completed Air Yards (CAY) per Next Gen Stats. Full breakdown here. Carr also managed to set a season-low in the category at 0.4 CAY. There’s no doubt that such a poor performance was the result of Carr’s shoulder injury, as the veteran quarterback not only struggled with his arm strength but overthinking plays in the short passing game as well.
The Buccaneers’ defense, led by former Pro Bowl safety Antoine Winfield Jr., didn’t go easy on their division rivals either. They kept pressure on Carr all day, resulting in a sack for Winfield Jr. and a strip sack for former Pro Bowl defensive tackle Vita Vea.
Those interested in the Saints’ quarterback room should keep a close eye on practice reports here, as after the sack from Vea, Jameis Winston came in for Carr at the end of the fourth quarter. As an homage to his former team, Winston immediately threw a pick on his lone pass attempt.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara: 11 Carries, 51 Yards | 14 Targets, 13 Receptions, 33 Yards
Taysom Hill: 1/1, 13 Yards | 4 Carries, 10 Yards | 1 Target, 1 Reception, 7 Yards
Adam Prentice: 1 Carry, 5 Yards | 2 Targets, 1 Reception, 5 Yards | Fumble (Lost)
Kendre Miller: 1 Carry, 3 Yards | 1 Target, 1 Reception, 5 Yards
Alvin Kamara returned to the field this week after serving a three-game suspension. While the 13 receptions and 14 targets he saw were his highest totals since Week 3 of 2020, Kamara made his way into the history books in an unusual fashion:
Alvin Kamara had 13 catches today for 33 yards. That's not only the lowest yardage total in NFL history among players with 13 or more receptions, but it's the lowest yardage total in NFL history among players with 10 or more receptions. (Shoutout @Stathead )
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 1, 2023
Likely not the record that Kamara thought that he’d be setting upon his return! The volume for Kamara in his first game back is music to fantasy players’ ears, and while the Buccaneers’ defense isn’t exactly the 2002 Bucs in terms of defensive prowess, they’ve been stingy in the early going while many thought they would get rolled over all season long. A little rust might also have been in play for Kamara, but he overall looked solid and, most importantly, healthy.
The five-time Pro Bowler came into this one looking to break out of a tie with Marques Colston for the Saints’ all-time touchdown record (72). Kamara also sits three rushing touchdowns back of Mark Ingram for the franchise record in rushing touchdowns (52). Both records could be broken rather soon if Kamara can continue to pick up where he left off with his efficiency on the ground (4.64 YPC).
Rookie running back Kendre Miller continued to be out-snapped by insert-position-of-choice-here Taysom Hill in the backfield (33-5). It appears as if it may be a while before it’s Miller time in New Orleans.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Michael Thomas: 6 Targets, 4 Receptions, 53 Yards
Rashid Shaheed: 7 Targets, 3 Receptions, 33 Yards
Chris Olave: 6 Targets, 1 Reception, 4 Yards
Lynn Bowden Jr.: 1 Target
There may be a lot of panic out there right now around Chris Olave, but if you missed the action here – don’t fret. Olave led the team in snaps (53) AND total air yards (146). See, there’s a reason why I mentioned a refresher on air yards earlier!
Those five missed targets can be pesky to interpret at times. The difference between the air yards being sent Olave’s way and his actual receiving yardage will hopefully put fans of the sophomore receiver at ease that Kamara’s return will siphon production from Olave. Given that Kamara’s sudden workload was the result of a weary Carr firing off checkdowns like they were beads at Mardi Gras, you can safely write this off as what happens when a beleaguered quarterback neglects to take a week off.
Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed are in relatively the same boat due to Carr’s performance yesterday. The only distinction I’d make is that Olave is firmly entrenched as the WR1 here, so while Thomas has proven he can still be a valuable contributor, don’t expect a full return to form.