Broncos @ Jets
Final Score: Broncos 10 – Jets 9
Writer: Jesse Maida
This was an ugly, rainy game in East Rutherford. How ugly? The Broncos and Jets nearly combined to set a modern NFL record in futility for combined yards in the first half, largely thanks to Bo Nix setting a record for fewest passing yards in the first half of a game in the PFF-era (-7). The rain let up in the second half, which led to some offense and a dramatic finish, but the game ended just as ugly as it started, with both teams missing potentially game-winning field goals. If you like fantasy points, this was not the game for you.
Three Up
- Courtland Sutton – Sutton was the entire Broncos passing attack. That’s not an exaggeration; Sutton had 60 receiving yards while all other Broncos combined for 0.
- Mike Williams – Williams led the Jets in receiving, making multiple big plays. He deserves more targets.
- Denver D/ST – The Broncos have only allowed 16 points with 12 sacks in the last two weeks; both road games against the Bucs and Jets. Anchored by the WR1 destroyer Patrick Surtain, this unit looks legit and has the Raiders on deck with potentially no Davante Adams.
Three Down
- Breece Hall – 10 carries for four yards. This was a disastrous game from Breece and was outplayed by Braelon Allen.
- Broncos WRs (except Sutton) – Sutton dominates the targets and is still barely fantasy-relevant. Bo Nix cannot support two fantasy receivers.
- Garrett Wilson – Yes, he was shadowed by Surtain but at some point, GW needs to start scoring fantasy points. This is now four games in a row without a top-24 weekly WR finish.
Leaders in receiving fantasy points in each of the Jets' games this season:
Week 1: Allen Lazard (26.9 PPR points)
Week 2: Breece Hall (18.2)
Week 3: Tyler Conklin (14.3*)
Week 4: Allen Lazard (10.8)Somebody missing?
— Sam Sherman (@Sherman_FFB) September 29, 2024
Broncos
Quarterback
Bo Nix: 12/25, 60 Yards, TD | 5 Carries, 3 Yards
While watching this game I learned that Bo Nix is the shortest name in NFL history. He set another record in this contest, with the fewest passing yards in the first half of a game in the PFF era. Nix clearly had problems gripping the football in the rain and at one point tried using a pouch to keep hands dry but nothing seemed to work. Even though the weather was terrible, this performance was still underwhelming after the improvements he displayed in Week 3. It wasn’t all negative though as Nix did throw his first-ever career touchdown pass to Courtland Sutton and played the role of game manager well. He was poised and played smart, limiting mistakes, and allowing the Broncos’ defense to win the game.
The fewest passing yards in the first half of a game in the PFF-era.
The only player with negative yardage on more than 3 attempts. https://t.co/euQwoiapQB
— Mike Kennedy (@MikeKennedyNFL) September 29, 2024
Running Back
Javonte Williams: 16 Carries, 77 Yards | 3 Targets, 2 Receptions, 3 Yards
Managers who started Javonte Williams got a little lucky with the Badie injury, but Javonte made the most of his extra carries. This was his best game of the season, accumulating 80 yards on 18 touches, playing 59% of the snaps. Williams put the team on his back on a 4th quarter drive which led to the game-winning field goal. The drive started with four consecutive Williams’ rushes leading to 36 yards, getting the Broncos into field goal range. I’ve covered three Broncos games this season and that drive was the best I’ve seen Javonte look in a long time. This was his first game averaging more than 4 YPC since Week 7 of 2023.
Jaleel McLaughlin: 9 Carries, 46 Yards | 1 Target, 1 Reception, 0 Yards
Like Javonte Williams, McLaughlin also had his best game of the season on the ground. 9 carries for 46 yards is by far his most efficient outing in 2024 but without work in the passing game, it’s basically impossible to trust McLaughlin in your lineups.
Tyler Badie: 1 Carry, 0 Yards | 2 Targets, 2 Receptions, -4 Yards, FUM(L)
It was reported that all three Broncos running backs were working with the first team in pregame reps. Javonte started the first series but Badie actually had the first Broncos rush of the game and had three of the first six Broncos running back touches. Unfortunately, Badie took a shot to the back in the 1st quarter and never returned. Badie was shown lying down on the sidelines in serious pain and was ultimately carted to the locker room. If not for the injury, he was certainly going to be involved in the Broncos game plan.
From the FWIW file, #Broncos order of RBs up in pregame team reps: Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, Tyler Badie. All got reps with 1s. I’d expect to see them all today.
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) September 29, 2024
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Courtland Sutton: 9 Targets, 3 Catches, 60 Yards, TD
At one point in the second half, Sutton had more receiving yards than Nix had passing yards. He once again operated as the alpha WR for the Broncos, accounting for 36% of targets, 62% of air yards, and 100% of receiving yards. Sutton saved his fantasy day with a nice toe-tap touchdown in the third quarter, his first of the season and Nix’s first career passing TD. The efficiency is ugly but Sutton now has a 26% target share through four weeks and may just be able to volume his way to a WR3 season.
Week Four
Bo Nix Passing TD (1)
to Courtland Sutton (1) pic.twitter.com/8Pmc7H5J5L— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDVids) September 29, 2024
Missed Opportunities
- Missed another TD on a full extension dive. It was a tough play but Sutton gets multiple end zone shots every game.
Troy Franklin: 4 Targets, 2 Receptions, -2 Yards
Franklin finished with fewer receiving yards than you and I.
All Other Pass Catchers: 5 Targets, 0 yards
Josh Reynolds, Lil’ Jordan Humphrey, Greg Dulcich, and Marvin Mims all combined for 0 yards. These pass catchers cannot be trusted in your fantasy lineups.
Jets
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers: 24/42, 225 Yards | 5 Carries, 26 Yards
Outside a fantastic two-minute drill to close the first half, Aaron Rodgers was bested by the Broncos’ defense. Taking five sacks and constantly under pressure, Rodgers and the Jets’ offense could not gain any sort of momentum. This game was set up for a classic Rodgers game-winning drive but the Broncos wouldn’t bend, if anything, it was Rodgers who ‘bent’, getting banged up on a sack late in the 4th quarter. He came up limping after that crucial sack which stifled the Jets’ comeback. Post-game, Rodgers said he is fine, just a ‘little banged up’. The one positive for Rodgers was his mobility, as he not only ran for 26 yards, his highest since Week 9 of 2022, but also escaped numerous sacks.
GOT 'EMMMMMMM
📺: CBS | @Pjlocke4 pic.twitter.com/Z3PgH5VL9Z
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) September 29, 2024
Running Back
Breece Hall: 10 Carries, 4 Yards | 5 Targets, 2 Receptions, 14 Yards
This is quite possibly the worst game of Breece Hall’s career to date. 18 total yards, two goal-line stuffs, and clearly outplayed by a 20-year-old rookie. The Jets turned to Allen in the 4th quarter when the game mattered most and it was the right move. Has Breece Hall lost his stranglehold on the goal-line role? This is a legitimate question we need to ask. For now, head coach Robert Saleh seems to be sticking with his ‘workhorse’. This was an abysmal performance but Breece Hall still played 71% of the snaps and ran 24 routes vs. 13 for Braelon Allen.
Robert Saleh is asked about using Braelon Allen vs. Breece Hall in short yardage situations:
"We're always going to lean on Breece, he's our workhorse back. It's definitely something to look at." pic.twitter.com/mpEOTkEo8c
— Jets Videos (@snyjets) September 29, 2024
Missed Opportunities
- Got stuffed on back-to-back goal-line carries
Braelon Allen: 8 Carries, 34 Yards | 1 Target, 1 Reception, 12 Yards
Allen hardly saw the field in the first quarter and didn’t receive his first touch until the Jets’ 5th possession. He made an impact immediately, picking up nine yards on 1st-and-10, then converting a 3rd-and-1 for the first down, the Jets first of the game (excluding penalties). It seems crazy to take the ball out of Breece Hall’s hands, but Allen deserves more touches; he’s earned them, now averaging 5.1 yards per carry through four weeks. It’s quite possible Allen gets a crack at goal-line duties in the near future.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Garrett Wilson: 8 Targets, 5 Receptions, 41 Yards
Every fantasy football player is familiar with the phrase ‘Start Your Studs’. I think we should alter this phrase to ‘Start Your Studs unless your WR is being shadowed by Patrick Surtain’. Garrett Wilson now joins George Pickens, DK Metcalf, and Mike Evans in the club of WR1’s getting locked up by Surtain. Wilson’s best weekly finish through four weeks is WR29 so he could be the ultimate buy-low, but eventually we need to stop making excuses for him and he needs to score some fantasy points.
Patrick Surtain II against Garrett Wilson today (25 routes): 2 receptions on 3 targets for 22 yards, per @NextGenStats.
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 29, 2024
Mike Williams: 5 Targets, 4 Receptions, 67 Yards
Williams set season highs in targets, receptions, and yards. He was the best receiver on the field for the Jets today. It seemed like every Williams catch came in a crucial moment and he also drew an important pass interference penalty with 1 minute remaining in the 4th quarter. He should be ramping up to full speed in the next few weeks.
Allen Lazard: 8 Targets, 5 Receptions, 58 Yards
Lazard continues to be a focal point in this passing attack, even as Mike Williams gets more involved. The chemistry between Rodgers and Lazard is clear so it’s possible he remains relevant all season, especially if Wilson does not dominate targets like we expected. Lazard played 22 more snaps than Williams and was on the field for 12 more pass plays, indicating that Lazard is still the clear WR2 in terms of playing time.
Tyler Conklin: 8 Targets, 4 Receptions, 17 Yards
Conklin had eight targets, which led the team, tied with Wilson and Lazard. That’s now 14 targets in the last two weeks after being a complete afterthought in Weeks 1 and 2 (4 targets). Conklin has entered tight-end streaming territory now that bye weeks are here in Week 5.