Broncos @ Eagles
Final Score: Broncos 21, Eagles 17
Writer: Matthew Bevins (MattBQBList on Reddit)
When the Eagles and Broncos took the field Sunday, the anticipation was that two of the top eight teams in the NFL would be facing off. What happened for the first three quarters was anything but, as Bo Nix operated as if he were running plays through quicksand, not really showcasing what has made him one of the best young quarterbacks, until the final quarter, putting together 18 unanswered points and taking the Broncos home with a win no one would’ve expected at the half. While Jalen Hurts showcased some of what makes him one of, if not the best, fantasy quarterbacks going these days. When the matchup had ended, the Broncos were heading out of Philly with a win, leaving us with as many questions as there were answers. Let’s dive into it.
Three Up
- Bo Nix — While this may not showcase the best fantasy line that Nix has ever had, he came out of a tough matchup on the road with a win, and his team and coaching staff are more confident that when plays don’t just develop the way you may like, he’s able to get out of situations with a win. A hugely impressive performance.
- DeVonta Smith — Smith is showing himself as arguably the No. 1 target this season, behind a Saquon Barkley going through some rushing struggles and calling Hall of Famers for advice. Emmitt Smith may have advice for DeVonta, and A.J. Brown may have words for the staff and coaching room, but Smith is starting to show that he can be reliable if he can just be healthy. Before the halftime whistle even hit, he almost had 100 receiving yards.
- Courtland Sutton — There was a time when Sutton couldn’t be found as a reliable option, where he showcased all the potential and tools of someone who could be a dominant WR1, but never quite got there. What we see now is that we have that, and the team has upswing receivers that could become legitimate options in Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims Jr. making it a bit harder for teams to zone in on Sutton.
Three Down
- A.J. Brown — He complained. He wore a sweater, asking to be “checked on.” He was an early hit in a definitive matchup against Patrick Surtain. When the final whistle blew, Brown still left the stadium with under 50 yards receiving and just one game this year where he looked like the dominant threat that this league has seen year in and year out. Check on your friends, indeed.
- Jalen Hurts — This is less of an APB for Hurts’ fantasy value, asking everyone how you can shed him off your roster, as he still ranks second on PFF rankings for rushing quarterbacks. But the fact of the matter is that Hurts isn’t going to get the job done for fantasy owners if he doesn’t get some larger numbers on the boards, and finish off drives. For the year, he’s currently ranked as the ninth overall value quarterback on PFF, and watching games, it seems as if this team is starting this season slower than anticipated. Not to worry, more to watch.
- RJ Harvey — I didn’t buy it, but the fact of the matter is, if you bought in heavy on rookie running backs this year, so far, you’re projecting to pay your yearly dues and shut off the television for the remainder of the season. Harvey was drafted early in the NFL Draft, had a solid enough camp, and was then seen as the heir apparent in the Broncos’ offense, but for me, it always seemed like a trap. During the game, he looks to be missing a step, even on an ACL-injury returning J.K. Dobbins. Harvey won’t do much unless Dobbins gets hurt, which, presumably, no one is outright rooting for.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback
Bo Nix: 24/39, 242 Yards, 1 TD | 3 carries, 22 yards
Bo Nix has been a revelation over the past year-plus. When he came out of the NFL Draft, it was a running gag to see how the not-so-exciting but competent quarterback would come out of college in a draft where he was way overdrafted due to Sean Payton‘s affinity for him. Nix has dispelled the myth that he’s a pro-style quarterback with little to no upside and has instead made himself into a reliable and potential top-five upside quarterback in the league. Where Nix had an entire half of short passes and chased-out-of-pocket throwaways, he was able to show up and finally find his receivers late in the second half and salvaged a game into a better performance than Hurts by the end of the game. Just in reference, staring down a 17-10 margin halfway through the fourth quarter, Nix found Evan Engram on a route slanting in to the middle of the field, converting on a drive desperately needed.
Evan Engram dives in for the Broncos touchdown
Running Back
J.K. Dobbins: 20 carries, 79 yards, 1 TD | 1 target, 1 reception, 5 yards
RJ Harvey: 4 carries, 12 yards | 3 targets, 3 receptions, 18 yards
I know so many fantasy owners want to just give up on the J.K. Dobbins play. He wasn’t the exciting pick of drafts, and in some circles was even drafted after Harvey. But the fact of the matter is, Dobbins has the juice, and RJ Harvey is just sucking out unfinished juice boxes. Dobbins has somehow found a second life after a season lost, and he seems like a rejuvenated runner, able to take off on three-down packages and has some big burst plays. Averaging 5.7 YPC on the season before Sunday, Dobbins has the 17th-most attempts on the season, and yet the fifth-most yards on the year. Dobbins ended up with the only rushing touchdown in the game in the fourth quarter, and ended the game with almost 4 yards per carry. Where Harvey saw 15 snaps this week, four less than Tyler Badie, Dobbins had 39, and proves that he is the one to beat in this backfield. Dobbins now has a huge lead on snap count, he’s the top of the pecking order rushing-downs back, and is the goal-line guy. Fade your Harveys. Looking at the snap count and how Badie was used, it’s entirely possible that Badie has now made his way up to the second runner spot on the depth chart and will be used on traditional passing plays and blocking needs.
Dobbin’s TD, activate!
A JK Dobbins rushing TD makes it a seven-point game 👀DENvsPHI on CBS/Paramount+http://watch.nfl.com
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Courtland Sutton: 10 targets, 8 receptions, 99 yards
Marvin Mims Jr.: 5 targets, 2 receptions, 10 yards
Adam Trautman: 1 target, 1 reception, 11 yards
Troy Franklin: 5 targets, 3 receptions, 35 yards
Evan Engram: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 33 yards, 1 TD
The offense in Denver has stripped itself down to the reliables, and that leaves us with Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims Jr., Troy Franklin, and … Evan Engram? Engram was arguably the second-most noteworthy name for Broncos pass catchers, and speaks to how well the Eagles’ defense played for the majority of the game, and how little anyone did to break out and make a play. Sutton had a tough matchup, but was able to leave the game with 80% of his targets completed, while the rest of the players on the depth chart didn’t do much of value, and Franklin and Mims may actually have to worry about Pat Bryant, who didn’t catch any passes this week but had more snaps than Mims (by 13), and just short of Franklin (by four). Snaps can be such a huge sign of what’s to come, and we may start to see the cachet of Mims as a sleeper to fade as the season goes on. Engram ended the game with a short-ish touchdown reception, within the red zone, but for all its worth, he didn’t even see over 30 snaps, leading me to think he’s still in a crowded, mish-mash tight end room that also includes Adam Trautman.
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts: 23/38, 280 yards, 2 TDs | 2 carries, 3 yards
Big Jalen Hurts homer here. Have been since his early seasons, when I grabbed him off free agency a few weeks before he got his first start. What’s happened since has been amazing, seeing multiple Super Bowl appearances, and now a Super Bowl win. This season has been much less a crown of roses, as we’ve watched Hurts attempt to find his footing numerous times, with Sunday being just the second game where he threw for more than 200 yards. This is not a game where I’m as worried as others this season, but we still need to take a look at his abysmal 3 yards rushing and inability to pass 20 yards rushing in 40% of his games already. We look at four rushing touchdowns over the course of five games thus far, and wonder if maybe his game of fantasy quarterbacking is a bit more predicated on large rushing production that can’t be as reliable as it seems, and tush pushes that are slowly becoming the bane of NFL existence. It still seems as if Hurts will continue to operate as a top-five fantasy QB due to the offense surrounding him, but we should probably look to temper our expectations a tad on a week-to-week basis with Hurts.
Running Back
Saquon Barkley: 6 carries, 30 yards | 3 targets, 3 receptions, 58 yards, 1 TD
Will Shipley: 1 carry, 0 yards
A.J. Dillon: 2 carries, 12 yards
The backfield is Saquon Barkley‘s. But the worries and cracks are starting to show, and it’s something we have to wonder more about. Is it the result of a massive carry amount that he took on last season, or is it something mental? We heard during the game and have heard for the past couple of weeks the murmurs and mutters across social media about how he’s struggling with his approach and running style. What do we do with it now, as this team doesn’t have a prototypical No. 2 back that could take over if he’s out, and we’re now watching that the Eagles become very one-dimensional when Barkley can’t thrive. While it’s still a large snap count for most players, Barkley saw 44 snaps this week, which was his lowest amount of the season, and it seems the team is quietly trying to pull some responsibility. The good news is that while he’s not laying large amounts of tread on his tires in the run game, he continues to be arguably the second-best receiving back behind Christian McCaffrey in the league. Slight worry, but don’t worry that much.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Devonta Smith: 10 targets, 8 receptions, 114 yards
A.J. Brown: 8 targets, 5 receptions, 43 yards
Dallas Goedert: 9 targets, 3 receptions, 19 yards, 1 td
Jahan Dotson: 3 targets, 1 reception, 24 yards
The game started quickly with DeVonta Smith‘s receptions and didn’t seem to pull far away from that for the remainder of the game. In the game, the Eagles’ offense had 61 snaps and Smith was in on 60 of them (57 for A.J. Brown). Smith has found himself in a position where he is becoming the most reliable option for the team, and now sees himself in a position where he has become what everyone was worried about for Brown when he was drafted. Dallas Goedert ended up stealing a touchdown on a drive where he wasn’t seen, and instead, Grant Calcaterra caught two passes. DeVonta did a lot of heavy lifting and didn’t garner a touchdown from it. Between a Patrick Surtain II pass interference call on Brown that helped get them into goal-line package distance, there wasn’t much more to be learned from his box score other than the fact that this may be a slow climb to value quarterbacking. Between Smith’s reception soaking and Goedert goal goal-line soaking, there may not be much more value for Brown to gain this year unless he unlocks his usual extra valve.