Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans
Had this been a playoff game, history tells us things likely would have been more exciting if nothing else. Buffalo and Houston/Tennessee have met twice in the playoffs, both resulting in memorable matchups. Before their move to Tennessee in 1997, the Titans were the Oilers and located in Houston. In 1992, Houston led 35-3 early in the third quarter before backup QB Frank Reich (current Colts HC) stunned the Oilers in the largest comeback in NFL history, leading the Bills to a 41-38 OT victory. (Fun sidenote #1: I, like much of America, stopped watching this game at halftime and never saw the comeback). Seven seasons later, the Titans and Bills met in the playoffs again and the result was the Music City Miracle. Here’s the play, in case you don’t know what I’m talking about. (Fun sidenote #2: This was my first ever NFL game. Hasn’t been topped). So, what happened during today’s clash? Here’s what I saw.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterbacks
- Josh Allen: 23/32, 219 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 4 sacks, 15 yards lost | 10 carries, 27 yards
Josh Allen was efficient if nothing else in this game. Allen’s receiving options were well-covered all game as the Titans elected to primarily play tight, man-to-man coverage. Early on, HC Sean McDermott put ultimate trust in his offense, electing to go for it twice on the team’s first drive on fourth down. Allen was able to convert the first on a sneak but was stuffed on the second from Tennessee’s 31-yard line. Allen never challenged the defense deep, as evidenced by his 9.5 yards per completion. Again, credit the Titans defense with excellent coverage throughout the game limiting Allen’s options. Allen’s lone INT was a combination of a poor decision by Allen and a good defensive read by safety Keith Byard. Allen provided some fantasy help with his legs, with his most important run coming as the clock ticked down in the fourth quarter. Facing a third-and-three from Tennessee’s 24-yard-line, Allen faked to Frank Gore and bootlegged around the left end for 15 yards to seal the victory. Allen doesn’t provide enough upside to warrant consideration in one-QB leagues, but in two-QB or SuperFlex leagues, Allen provides low-end QB2 value.
Running Backs
- Frank Gore: 14 carries, 60 yards | 2 targets, 2 receptions, 9 yards
- T.J. Yeldon: 2 carries, 15 yards | 5 targets, 4 receptions, 13 yards
Running lanes were hard to come by due to the stout nature of Tennessee’s defense. Gore padded his stats late in the game, compiling 36 of his 60 yards on the team’s final drive. Gore frequently pounded the ball into the interior of the line, taking what was there and not much more. With Devin Singletary seemingly on the cusp of returning from his hamstring injury, Gore appears to be losing much of his fantasy value, maybe an emergency BYE or injury fill-in, but not much more.
T.J. Yeldon remained the primary receiving-down RB and was one of the most-targeted players for Allen. Despite garnering seven touches, Yeldon was unable to get much going. Much like Gore, Yeldon’s fantasy value will likely take a hit once the Buffalo returns from their week six BYE and Singletary returns to the lineup. Yeldon is more enticing in PPR leagues, but just barely. He’s no better than an RB4 right now, and that might be generous.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
- Cole Beasley: 3 targets, 3 receptions, 21 yards
- John Brown: 5 targets, 5 receptions, 75 yards
- Duke Williams: 4 targets, 4 receptions, 29 yards, 1 TD
- Dawson Knox: 5 targets, 2 receptions, 12 yards
It appears a nice connection has been formed between Allen and John Brown. Brown was one of three players who garnered five targets from Allen and was by far the most productive receiver from a yardage standpoint. Brown primarily turned short passes into decent gains, a theme for the Buffalo passing game throughout the game. Brown is a viable WR3 given his volume in this offense, and his speed provides a nice weekly ceiling for fantasy owners.
Despite leading the team in targets (36) heading into the game, Cole Beasley was only targeted three times this afternoon. Two of Beasley’s catches did result in a first down, and the other was just short on a third-and-ten. Beasley is a valued slot possession receiver for the team and, like Brown, has fantasy value due to sheer volume. Beasley also carries low-end WR3 value but doesn’t have the weekly ceiling of Brown due to his role in the offense.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of Sunday was the production earned by Duke Williams, who got the start due to the shoulder injury keeping Zay Jones on the sidelines. Called up from the practice squad just two days earlier, Williams caught all four of his targets and the eventual game-winning TD in the fourth quarter. Williams had a solid preseason and was the CFL’s leading receiver in 2018 (1,579 yards) before making his first regular-season NFL appearance. Given Buffalo’s BYE next week and Jones’s likely return, Williams’ stint as a member of the active roster might be short-lived. Even if Williams remains on the active roster, the passing game flows mainly through Brown and Beasley and as such makes Williams mostly an afterthought for fantasy owners.
If you had money on Lee Smith scoring the first TD of the game, you’re either some sort of time-traveler or a warlock. Smith ran freely right-to-left across the field as Allen faked the handoff to Gore heading right and was wide open in the end zone for Allen’s first TD. Smith is only mentioned here because he caught a TD and he carries no fantasy value.
Tennessee Titans
Quarterbacks
- Marcus Mariota: 13/22, 183 yards, 5 sacks, 33 yards lost | 5 carries, 13 yards
Marcus Mariota was harassed from the opening whistle in this game, despite LT Taylor Lewan’s return from a four-game suspension due to performance enhancers. Much like the Allen writeup above, much credit has to be given to Buffalo’s stingy defense. Mariota’s day could have been much better as he rushed for an apparent five-yard TD in the third quarter, but his knee came down just before breaking the plane of the goal line. Later, as Tennessee was looking to take a fourth-quarter lead, Mariota threw an apparent TD pass to A.J. Brown, but Mariota was ruled to have been across the line of scrimmage and the play was called back. On the plus side for Mariota’s stats, however, was a nice 57-yard catch and run by Jonnu Smith on a well-designed play. Mariota is way too up-and-down to trust as anything more than a low-end QB2 in leagues that allow for two starting QBs. Mariota won’t kill you with bad INTs (he’s not thrown one in 2019), but he’s just as likely to put up 180 yards and 0 TDs as he is 250 yards and 3 TDs.
Running Backs
- Derrick Henry: 20 carries, 78 yards, 1 TD | 2 targets, 1 reception, 10 yards
- Dion Lewis: 2 carries, 11 yards | 4 targets, 2 receptions, 19 yards
Derrick Henry has the Titans’ backfield to himself and has become the primary source of offense for the team. Henry has not seen fewer than 15 carries in a game this season and is averaging four yards per carry. Henry should have had a better game as he had an eight-yard TD called back in the fourth quarter due to holding. Henry ran with good power all game and showed good burst on his longest play of the day, a 24-yard Gallup off the right side of the line. Henry did find the end zone on a one-yard plunge following the reversal of Mariota’s rushing TD but barely registers a blip in the passing game. As such, Henry checks in as a solid RB2 with RB1 upside given his role in the offense and the volume he is commanding. Henry’s value sees a bit of a hit in PPR leagues, but still slots in as a low-end RB2.
Dion Lewis has been a disappointment so far in the 2019 season and today’s stat line continued that trend. Lewis only saw meaningful action at the tail end of the first half when Tennessee was running a two-minute offense to try and score before halftime. Despite sitting at 2-3 following the loss to Buffalo, Lewis hasn’t seen much work when the Titans are trying to come back in games. It’s hard to recommend Lewis as anything more than an emergency BYE week or injury fill-in because of the limited work he’s seen thus far.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
- Corey Davis: 4 targets, 2 receptions, 28 yards
- A.J. Brown: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 27 yards
- Adam Humphries: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 30 yards
- Delanie Walker: 2 targets, 1 reception, 10 yards
- Jonnu Smith: 2 targets, 1 reception, 57 yards
Adam Humphries was Mariota’s preferred option in the passing game, garnering a game-high six targets. Working from the slot, Humphries was so frequently targeted because of the pressure Mariota was facing from Buffalo’s fierce pass rush. Humphries ran short routes in the middle of the field with little to no yards following the catch. Humphries is a vital part of Tennessee’s gameplan but is a better NFL player than a fantasy player. Humphries doesn’t project as more than a WR5 in this offense.
Corey Davis was the next-most targeted player for Mariota but found real estate hard to come by. Because Davis plays one of the outside receiver spots, Mariota rarely had time enough to find him down the field. Davis’s best play came as Tennessee was trying to score before halftime, taking a short pass 23 yards before being forced out of bounds. Davis has the physical traits to blossom into a #1 WR, but the Tennessee offense prevents him from reaching fantasy-relevant heights. Davis looks like nothing better than a WR4 with big-game upside.
A.J. Brown has been one of the most exciting players for the Titans so far this season, but he is maddeningly inconsistent. Brown was unable to show off any of his game-breaking moves as Brown was tackled immediately on both of his receptions. Brown appeared to have a third TD this season, but Mariota was ruled to have crossed the line of scrimmage before throwing the pass to the rookie. Brown has WR1 upside but is way too inconsistent to declare him as anything higher than a WR4 with upside.
Heading into the game, Delanie Walker was the only Titan player to have received 20+ targets on the season, but he seemed to be a forgotten man following Tennessee’s first drive of the game. Walker had a nice 26-yard gain on the first play of the game, but it was nullified by a Lewan holding penalty. Walker gathered his only reception two plays later and was targeted just one more time throughout the game. It was surprising given the lack of time Mariota had in the pocket but I suspect this was more of an anomaly than the start of a trend. Walker remains a solid TE2 with low-end TE1 upside.
Jonnu Smith had a big play on his only reception of the game as the team perfectly executed a tight end screen off play-action going the opposite direction. Smith remains a little-used component of the offense and will only carry fantasy value if Walker were to miss time.
NOTE: Cairo Santos had a horrible game, missing four FGs (33, 36, 50, and 53 yards) on the day. Santos was signed to replace Ryan Succop who was placed on IR before the start of the season. If you’re in a league that starts kickers and Santos is your guy, monitor what the Titans elect to do before week six. Succop would be eligible to return following week eight if healthy.
–Bryan Sweet