Chiefs at Bills
This tasty matchup between two of the top young quarterbacks in the league did not disappoint on a soaking wet night in Buffalo. Patrick Mahomes led the Kansas City Chiefs to a 26-17 victory built on the back of a solid run game alongside 2 touchdown passes to tight end Travis Kelce. Josh Allen was 6/16 for 42 yards at halftime as the Chiefs controlled the time of possession. He improved after the break and connected with Cole Beasley for an 8-yard touchdown to put the Bills in with a shout but a 12-play, 75-yard drive that took 4:38 off the clock in the 4th quarter resulted in a field goal that nudged the Chiefs over the line to improve to 5-1.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: 21/26, 225 yards, 2 TD, 1 fumble, 1 sack | 10 carries, 36 yards
This is not the dominant Patrick Mahomes (20.60 fantasy points) we are used to seeing. Efficient? Yes! Explosive? Not quite! The steady rain was likely a big factor as Mahomes registered a season-low in pass attempts (26) as the Chiefs leaned on the rushing attack to battle the conditions. The best quarterback in the league still managed to complete 84.6% of his passes in the rain, twice connecting with favorite target Travis Kelce in the endzone. This is probably the floor for Mahomes in fantasy terms, which you take when he still reaches 20+ fantasy points.
11 yards to @TKelce for his fourth TD of the season! #ChiefsKingdom
📺: #KCvsBUF on NFLN/FOX/PRIME VIDEO
📱: https://t.co/W5bCPYgMfo pic.twitter.com/YEuFWDWEXk— NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2020
Mahomes faces the Broncos, Jets, and Panthers before his week 10 bye. He will likely be a top 5 fantasy quarterback in those weeks.
Running Backs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 26 carries, 161 yards | 4 targets, 4 receptions, 8 yards
Darrel Williams: 6 carries, 26 yards, 1 TD | 1 target, 1 reception, 15 yards
Darwin Thompson: 3 carries, 17 yards
Welcome back to fantasy relevance Clyde Edwards-Helaire (20.90 fantasy points)! The uncertainty around the Chiefs signing Le’Veon Bell was quickly washed away as Andy Reid entrusted the first-round rookie to carry the load in the wet weather in Buffalo. He responded with 30 touches for 169 yards in an exciting display that showed off all his talents as a rusher. He also benefitted from the defensive scheme that the Bills went with, exploiting the presence of only 6 defenders near the line as the Bills adopted to cover deep to take away the big plays the Chiefs blow teams away with. Bell should not eat into his status as the lead back in Kansas City going forward. He may lose touches in the red zone, however.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire took advantage of light boxes (6 or fewer defenders), which he saw on 18 of his 26 carries (69%).
Edwards-Helaire had 109 expected rush yards on his runs vs light boxes (most by any RB in a game over the last 2 seasons).#KCvsBUF | #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/T5ckxXmcZ7
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 20, 2020
Speaking of touchdown hawks, enter Darrel Williams (11.10 fantasy points). CEH owners will be furious that it was Williams in on 4th down & inches instead of the rookie out of LSU. Williams will likely cede work to Bell once the former Jets back gets up to speed with the playbook. It was a nice run for the score but any talk of Williams being productive like this going forward will not be entertained.
Darrel Williams finds the end zone on 4th down!@Chiefs lead 20-10 with 1:18 left in the third.
📺: #KCvsBUF on NFLN/FOX/PRIME VIDEO
📱: https://t.co/W5bCPYgMfo pic.twitter.com/ln1Z1OkbS9— NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2020
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Demarcus Robinson: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 69 yards
Travis Kelce: 7 targets, 5 receptions, 65 yards, 2 TDs, 1 fumble
Byron Pringle: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 46 yards
Tyreek Hill: 3 targets, 3 receptions, 20 yards | 1 carry, 5 yards
Nick Keizer: 1 target, 1 reception, 2 yards
Ricky Seals-Jones: 1 target
Mecole Hardman: 1 target
Sean McDermott deployed a soft-coverage scheme with an extra man deep in an attempt to stifle the dynamic Chiefs passing game, and it nearly worked. The defense did its job in restricting the Chiefs to just 221 passing yards. Demarcus Robinson (11.90 fantasy points) led the team in receiving yards with all his receptions coming on short-to-intermediate routes in the absence of Sammy Watkins. Usually the fourth option in this passing game, Robinson benefitted from the scheme McDermott deployed. Robinson has dropped too many passes over his career to be called a solid flex option. If Watkins remains sidelined, however, the Chiefs passing game means he warrants consideration through the bye weeks.
Travis Kelce (21.50 fantasy points) remains the stud in this stable. Another 2 TDs in this game brings his stat line to 37-470-5 through 6 contests. Fantasy owners kick back and enjoy the highlights.
.@PatrickMahomes & @TKelce made this look too easy. #ChiefsKingdom
📺: #KCvsBUF on NFLN/FOX/PRIME VIDEO
📱: https://t.co/W5bCPYgMfo pic.twitter.com/fqOZRQo2Hp— NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2020
Tyreek Hill (5.50 fantasy points) was completely shutout as McDermott closed off the deep ball as an option for Mahomes. It is unlikely that teams employ this method so stringently in future weeks so Hill is still considered an outright WR1. Tonight was (hopefully) an aberration.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen: 14/27, 122 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT | 8 carries, 42 yards
For the second week in a row, Josh Allen (16.08 fantasy points) is a fantasy dud. A miserable 51.8% pass completion was the complete opposite end of the scale from Mahomes and shows the gulf in class between the two. Furthermore, Allen wasn’t able to make an impact on the ground as he carried just 8 times for 42 yards. He consistently struggled with his accuracy, particularly when attempting throws to his receivers in a tight window. His throw to Stefon Diggs to put the Bills in front 10-7 in the second quarter was the highlight of his night.
.@StefonDiggs stays in bounds to give the @BuffaloBills the lead! #BillsMafia
📺: #KCvsBUF on NFLN/FOX/PRIME VIDEO
📱: https://t.co/W5bCPYgMfo pic.twitter.com/OtK3duzo5x— NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2020
Allen threw an interception on the Bills’ last drive as they chased a quick score but otherwise the same questions remain about his ability to step up to the next level. Luckily, Allen faces the hapless Jets next week and is a must-start in fantasy simply for his dynamism in the rushing game.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary: 10 carries, 32 yards | 2 targets, 1 reception, 13 yards
Zack Moss: 5 carries, 10 yards
A running game that has promised so much in Buffalo is yet to really be fantasy effective. It doesn’t help the rush when Allen is so inaccurate and unable to move the sticks regularly. Devin Singletary (5.50 fantasy points) had just 10 carries compared to CEH’s 26 carries and was rarely targeted in the passing game. The return of Zack Moss (1.00 fantasy point) also meant a reduction in touches, which is not what fantasy owners are interested in at this stage in the season. Singletary is a tough buy right now and with Allen the more likely to see carries in the red zone, it may be time to look elsewhere than this backfield for fantasy production through the bye weeks. The Jets are next up, so maybe wait a week actually!
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs: 8 targets, 6 receptions, 46 yards, 1 TD
Cole Beasley: 7 targets, 4 receptions, 45 yards, 1 TD
Tyler Kroft: 2 targets, 1 reception, 7 yards
Gabriel Davis: 1 target, 1 reception, 7 yards
Isaiah McKenzie: 1 target, 1 reception, 4 yards
John Brown: 4 targets
It was a “what could have been” kind of night for the Bills receivers as they battled the elements and some errant throws from their quarterback. It all started with a deep pass down the field in the direction of Stefon Diggs (16.60 fantasy points), who couldn’t haul it down in the endzone as the ball was slightly out of reach. Allen “just missed” a good handful of times and it is hard to blame any of these receivers given the effort they put in. Diggs did make that sensational toe-drag catch after a pinpoint pass from Allen to put the Bills ahead, but it wasn’t until late in the 4th quarter that Allen connected with slot receiver Cole Beasley (14.50 fantasy points) for the Bills’ second score of the night.
.@Bease11 fights for extra yards for the @BuffaloBills score!
Chiefs lead 23-17 with 6:34 remaining.
📺: #KCvsBUF on NFLN/FOX/PRIME VIDEO
📱: https://t.co/W5bCPYgMfo pic.twitter.com/skEZzMJHN5— NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2020
Beasley is a frustrating fantasy commodity as plays like this show his potential as an excellent route runner and fantastic competitor. He is just 34% rostered in Yahoo! but remains touchdown dependant for fantasy purposes. The worrying trend in Buffalo is the disappearance of John Brown (4 targets), who failed to register a catch for the second time in a game this season. So reliable and productive last year, Brown has been shoved out by the arrival of Diggs whilst also struggling with injuries. He is now droppable in fantasy terms going into the bye weeks.
— Benjamin Haller