Falcons @ Panthers
Final Score: Falcons 38, Panthers 20
Writer: Jason Wolf (J_Wolf_Picks on Twitter)
In what was a surprisingly competitive first half, Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton shined at the QB position, both with highly-efficient passing performances leading their teams to multiple touchdown-scoring drives each. Dalton was particularly impressive, leading a 9 play, 80-yard TD scoring drive under the two-minute warning with no timeouts remaining. With some major help from the Atlanta offensive line, Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier absolutely dominated the Panthers on the ground, rushing for 200 yards and scoring three touchdowns between them. The Panthers, led by bellcow RB Chuba Hubbard and Dalton, kept the game competitive up until Dalton threw an inexplicably terrible decision on his first INT, killing all offensive momentum Carolina had as well as losing all hope for a comeback when the Falcons took their next possession for a touchdown. Cousins was accurate if unspectacular, mostly taking what the defense gave him and making consistent chain-moving throws in the short and intermediate game on his way to an efficient day which could have been a lot bigger if not for three touchdowns from the Atlanta RB duo. Diontae Johnson did his thing in the first quarter, racking up 46 yards and a touchdown but was limited the rest of the way to only 32 scoreless yards in the second half. Drake London caught his third TD in four games and the two-headed monster of Robinson and Allgeier ultimately proved to be too much for the Panthers as the Falcons broke away from Carolina to walk away with the 38-20 win.
Three Up
- Kyle Pitts – The “bust” label started to be thrown around quite a bit around Kyle Pitts after the first four weeks of the season. Pitts had 105 yards combined over the first four weeks but has gained 158 yards over the past two weeks. Pitts has had his two highest yardage games over the past two weeks and is finally starting to see more targets in the Falcons offense. He is doing a better job of gaining separation and has come down with a 30+ yard catch in consecutive games. Pitts is a potential X-factor and major offensive weapon that the Falcons haven’t been able to fully unlock just yet. Watching him eat up yards after the catch with the ball in his hands is a thing of beauty at the TE position and the Falcons need to find ways to get the ball in his hands in space. His increased production and targets bode well for his future production.
- Chuba Hubbard – Even in a game where his team was playing from behind for the vast majority of the game, Chuba Hubbard managed to get a full workload in, racking up over 90 rushing yards for the fourth consecutive week. Hubbard totaled over 100 yards and got 20+ touches on a day where the game script was mostly negative. Hubbard is a physical runner who doesn’t shy away from contact and the Panthers feed him the ball to keep the offense in a rhythm. If Hubbard can produce like this in games they are losing in, then Hubbard’s floor is very high. If the Panthers ever played with a lead, he would be a lock for 20+ carries a game. The re-tooled offensive line is also doing a great job run blocking for Hubbard, something he wasn’t getting last season.
- Drake London – For the third consecutive week, Drake London saw 10+ targets go his way, and for the fourth time in five games, he caught a TD. These aren’t fluky touchdowns either as Kirk Cousins is looking his way when Atlanta gets into the redzone. All four of London’s TD catches have come within 20 yards of the goal-line, an encouraging sign for sustainability of London’s TD production. The rapport between Cousins and London is blossoming as he saw twice as many targets (10) as the next highest receiver with five (Pitts & Mooney) and has led the Falcons in receiving in each of the past four games.
Two Down
- Kirk Cousins – In terms of returns on the Kirk Cousins acquisition, the Falcons could not have asked for much more through 6 weeks. He is mostly taking care of the ball, has a 67% completion rate, and has led clutch game-winning drives. He is everything the Falcons have expected him to be and more through six weeks, especially considering he is still not 100% over his injury. For fantasy purposes however, his stock is down due to Atlanta’s preference to run it down teams’ throats, especially in the red zone. The Falcons ran for three touchdowns within 10 yards of the goal-line, limiting Cousins upside as a fantasy passer. The high-level play of the offensive line allows for the Falcons to run the ball a thousand times with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Again, great for the Falcons, not so great for Cousins fantasy owners. Cousins did have a blow up game just last week but that was against the Buccaneers who find themselves in the highest-scoring game of the week nearly every week.
- Miles Sanders – I don’t think anyone was relying on Miles Sanders to take them to fantasy glory, yet he disappointed any expectations at all, even the tamest. Chuba Hubbard has this backfield completely on lock and Sanders, now relegated to pure backup, can barely see the field even in blowouts. Sanders recorded only four mostly ineffective touches compared to Hubbard’s 24. Whether the Panthers are winning or losing, they will feed Chuba all he can handle.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins: 19/30, 225 Yards, TD | 4 Carries, -5 Yards
It’s clear as day that Kirk Cousins isn’t yet at 100% by the lack of mobility that he shows. He is reluctant to break the pocket and there are almost no designed rollouts called. Lucky for “Kirko Chains” that he got to play the Carolina Panthers and their non-existent pass rush this week as he was largely chilling in the pocket this week. Cousins didn’t take a sack and he he usually had ample time to find his receivers on the day. Cousins responded with a by-and-large accurate game where he took what the defense gave him and let the run game and offensive line lead the way. Cousins passed the ball 30 times and Atlanta ran the ball 34 times, a beautiful run/pass split that would make most NFL coaches tear up with joy. Cousins got off to a somewhat slow start in the first quarter but after the Panthers went up 7-0 in the first, Cousins turned it on and kept it rolling throughout the game. When halftime rolled around, Cousins was 10/17 for 119 yards and a touchdown to go along with a 99.9 QBR. He wasn’t lighting it up on offense but he didn’t have to because the run game was consistently picking up positive yards and moving the chains. Cousins was finding the open man with ease on most of the day, hitting Kyle Pitts for a long 50- yard play and finding Drake London often in the second half for chain-moving gains in the intermediate parts of the field. Cousins finished the day with a solid 7.5 YPA and it feels like he could have done more if needed, but with the Falcons controlling the game in the second half, he mostly managed the game and made the throws needed to keep the ball moving forward while letting the Falcons’ RB duo shine. It was a great week for Cousins as he protected the ball, didn’t take too many hits and probably went a long way in gaining confidence and keeping his body well-rested on his road to getting back to 100%
Notes
- Cousins was lucky to not have thrown a pick-6 to Carolina CB Jaycee Horn on the Falcons’ second drive. Horn baited Cousins into throwing to the sideline to Ray-Ray McCloud and Horn had a perfect read and jump on it. The ball hit his hands and fell incomplete but Horn could have easily snagged it with full momentum running toward the endzone for a walk-in pick six. Kirk wasn’t punished for what was his worst decision of the day. That could have changed the game entirely as it almost put the Falcons in an unideal 14-0 hole early in the game.
Running Back
Bijan Robinson: 15 Carries, 95 Yards, 2 TD | 4 Targets, 3 Receptions, 10 Yards
While fantasy owners of Bijan Robinson will surely yet again be frustrated by the prominent role that Tyler Allgeier plays in the Atlanta offense, they can’t be displeased with today’s results. Bijan saw 10 of his 18 touches in the first half and scored both of his touchdowns in the opening two quarters as well. He looked great on the day, gaining consistent positive yardage and looking faster than everyone else when he had the ball in his hands. Robinson didn’t do much in the passing game, mostly seeing just very short check-downs from Cousins when nothing else was readily available. Seemingly every one of Bijan’s touches went for at least a few yards which is a testament to the dominant performance that the offensive line put up. All credit to Bijan for having excellent vision at the RB position but the offensive line was the star of the day, opening up holes all day for Robinson + Allgeier to run through. The Falcons won’t get to play the Panthers every week but this was a good example of how easy Atlanta’s elite offensive line can make it for their RB’s to operate. Bijan was slightly more efficient with his carries, averaging 6.3 YPA to Allgeier’s 5.8. Bijan did see the more important carries as he saw the majority of the carries within the 10-yard line. Allgeier’s number was called on the Falcons’ last TD-scoring drive in the fourth quarter, preventing a potential Robinson TD hat trick. Though Allgeier is a thorn in the side of Bijan’s production, there is clearly enough to eat for both RB’s and as the season goes on, Bijan’s freshness will in theory allow for him to maintain his effectiveness as the season goes on, which is a luxury for Bijan as well as the Falcons. Through Sunday, Bijan led all NFL RB’s across Week 6 in EPA gained per rush and he looked the part as he was explosive and tough to bring down all game. He displayed his signature blend of speed, vision, and power on his touchdown runs as he plowed through defenders and hit the hole hard on both of his scores.
Tyler Allgeier: 18 Carries, 105 Yards, TD | 1 Target, 1 Reception, 3 Yards
In what ended up being a dominant win for the Falcons, Tyler Allgeier carried the ball 18 times to Bijan Robinson’s 15. Allgeier totaled 19 touches to Bijan’s total of 18. Both RB’s scored and both RB’s feasted on Carolina’s pitiful “defense,” combining for over 210 yards of production. The offensive line put on a clinic in the run blocking game, opening up holes for Allgeier to run through with ease. Allgeier’s involvement in the offense is more than just a change-of-pace back or as a backup to the RB1. This is clearly a classic thunder-and-lightning situation where Atlanta can hurt you with either RB, keeping their offense dangerous and unpredictable with either RB on the field. On the Falcons’ first TD drive of the game, Allgeier got four consecutive touches inside Carolina territory. While Bijan ultimately carried the ball in the endzone, Allgeier saw valuable touches near and in the redzone. Though Robinson got the first two touchdowns in the first half, Allgeier wasn’t left off goal-line duties either as he converted a 2PA and scored his own touchdown late in the game. Allgeier had one of the highlight runs of the week and candidate for “angry run of the week” on his 20 yard run in the fourth quarter. Allgeier ran to the right and absorbed massive first contact, lowering his pad level and bullying his way through the first defender. After shrugging off a big hit, Allgeier broke another 4+ tackles and dragged multiple defenders down the field for the 20 yard gain, 15+ coming after heavy contact. Allgeier clearly doesn’t skip leg day as he gets low and keeps his legs churning, helping him get solid yards after contact with regularity. Allgeier and Robinson are the same height but Allgeier’s stature is a little bigger and he uses it, bringing a complimentary power dynamic to Bijan’s quick and explosive style. Allgeier is seeing around 40% of RB carries this season but saw over 50% in this one as he was used more in the second half to eat up yards and wear out the Panthers defense. Allgeier is clearly not just a backup and is a great RB in his own right who would easily be the featured back on a number of other teams in the NFL.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Drake London: 10 Targets, 6 Receptions, 74 Yards, TD
Drake London saw double-digit targets come his way for the third consecutive week. He has a touchdown in 4 out of the last 5 games and his connection with Kirk Cousins is really starting to blossom. Often hampered by poor QB play last season, Drake London is balling out and showing off what he can do with consistency now as Cousins has brought reliable and accurate QB play back to the Falcons offense. London flashed both his man-beating ability as well as his tendency to work himself open in the soft spots of zone defense in this one, getting open numerous times throughout the game. London’s TD came on a nice double move in the endzone as he created just a sliver of space from his defender, and Cousins delivered the ball in perfect timing between two defenders closing in on London. London showed off his sticky hands as he snared the pass in and secured the score. London started off slow as he only had one reception on four targets through the first 20 minutes but got it going with two grabs and the touchdown to open Atlanta’s scoring on Cousins’ 0nly TD throw of the day. All of London’s touchdowns have come from inside the redzone as Cousins is looking for London when they get close to paydirt. Cousins obviously trusts London the most out of his receivers and it shows when he targets him early and often when they get down in the redzone. Atlanta RB’s carried the ball in for three touchdowns and rushed for 200 yards, showing that there is a lot of meat left on the bone for London in the Atlanta offense. In a game where the Panthers couldn’t stop the run, Cousins didn’t need London to do too much, meaning bigger days are ahead of him as well.
Kyle Pitts: 5 Targets, 3 Receptions, 70 Yards
Kyle Pitts flashed some of his game-breaking ability on a 52 yard splash play, his longest reception of the season. Pitts found his way open deep in the Panthers’ zone coverage and took off after the catch, eating up 30+ yards after securing the ball. The fluidity and speed in his movements when carrying the ball always make you wonder why he isn’t more dominant week in and week out. He made the 30 yards after the catch look so easy, galloping his way down the field for one of the most casual-looking 50 yard pass plays you’ll see. Pitts was mostly silent in the second half, only coming down with one more reception for 14 yards. He was targeted on a 1-v-1 matchup in the endzone but seemed to give up on the route when he though Cousins missed him. Had he kept going all the way through his route, he might have had a chance at a corner TD grab but he stopped his route short, forcing the Falcons to settle for a FG try. Pitts seems to have a recurring issue of not always giving full effort on his routes. This could be a reason why he doesn’t see the amount of targets most fans think he should.
Darnell Mooney: 5 Targets, 3 Receptions, 38 Yards
After last week’s 100-yard, multi-TD performance, bigger things could have been expected from Darnell Mooney. However, the Falcons didn’t need many big plays in the passing game in this one as they were in control early and often. Cousins spread the ball around and Mooney saw as many targets as Pitts and Ray-Ray McCloud.
Ray-Ray McCloud: 4 Targets, 3 Receptions, 30 Yards, 1 Fumble (Lost) | 1 Rush, 3 Yards
Made a super heads-up play on a deflected ball on a 3rd & 6 that kept the Falcons drive going. Darnell Mooney was targeted on a pass that was broken up nicely by the defender but the ball was tipped into the hands of McCloud, who showed good focus and awareness by tracking and coming down with it. However, after this play, McCloud came down with a pass and then fumbled the ball away after the catch, causing the only Falcons turnover on the day.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback
Andy Dalton: 26/38, 221 Yards, 2 TD, 2 INT | 3 Carries, 21 Yards
Andy Dalton started the day off hot, finishing the first half of play 16/22 for 138 yards and two touchdowns. On a day where the Panthers defense couldn’t stop a bloody nose, Dalton was tasked with the gargantuan task of keeping Carolina in the game against a shootout with a much more talented team. Dalton responded with an impressive first half performance, particularly on a two-minute drill drive that Dalton led Carolina down the field on for a crucial TD right before the half. Dalton led the 9 play, 80 yard TD-scoring drive with under 2 minutes to go in the half and no timeouts. Dalton went 5/6 for 57 passing yards and an absolute dime to Xavier Legette in the corner of the endzone for the beautiful touchdown throw. Despite the defense giving up three first-half touchdowns, Dalton was poised and calm under pressure, managing the clock and defense perfectly on the quick-firing TD drive. The TD throw to Legette was a thing of beauty as Dalton placed the ball to where only Legette could make a play, and boy did he ever. Credit to Legette on the epic catch but Dalton set it all up with the perfectly placed pass. Dalton had a 72% completion rate and 119.1 QBR in the first half before eventually fading down the stretch, especially after his crucial interception. Dalton made his worst decison of the day on his interception, throwing the ball into triple coverage down the field when there was a check-down option available for a small gain. At that point in the game, the Panthers were only down 8 points and they were driving down the field effectively for the potential game-tying score. The interception killed all the momentum Carolina had and effectively ended their comeback hopes when the Falcons capitalized off the pick and scored on their ensuing possession. Before that back-breaker, Dalton was doing an excellent job keeping the Panthers in the game by moving the chains and accurately hitting the open man. Dalton connected with eight different receivers for completions but was favoring Diontae Johnson yet again due to their solid connection and his ability to get open. Dalton even made a highlight reel play when he ducked and spun his way out of a near-sack and broke the pocket for a 20+ yard rush, flashing some old-man athleticism in the process. Dalton ended up throwing another interception that was mostly meaningless in the grand scheme as they were down 18 points with mere minutes remaining and Dalton was forcing the issue to try and score quickly. His day doesn’t look that great on paper due to the turnovers but outside his one (very costly) mistake, Dalton performed admirably given the circumstances.
Running Back
Chuba Hubbard: 18 Carries, 92 Yards | 6 Targets, 5 Receptions, 11 Yards
Chuba Hubbard is an all-too rare true bellcow back. He had 10+ touches through the Panthers’ first 25 offensive plays. He is the foundation of the offense and they use him as such to establish an offensive rhythm + momentum in order to set up some easy offense for Dalton. Pass protection is still an issue at times for the revamped Carolina offense but they are doing a good job of run blocking, setting up some decent holes for Hubbard. He is capitalizing, as he has rushed for over 90 yards in four consecutive games. This week was no different as he was putting his aggressive running style + power on display as he was regularly plowing through contact and picking up extra tough yards on his rushes. Hubbard saw 24 RB opportunities compared to just four for Miles Sanders, making this one of the most lopsided backfields in the NFL in terms of the workload split. Of course Hubbard needs a breather at times, but it feels like every time Sanders rushes the ball is a wasted opportunity that could have gone to Chuba. In a game with a negative game script, Hubbard rushed 18 times for 92 yards, good for over 5.0 YPC and impressive considering that he is the focal point of their offense. For such a powerful runner, Hubbard is surprisingly shifty, using his low center of gravity to quickly cut and change direction. If the Panthers could maintain more competitive games, Hubbard can have bigger games with regularity as he is proving his floor to be decently high, even when playing from behind.
Miles Sanders: 3 Carries, 1 Yard | 1 Target, 1 Reception, 12 Yards
Miles Sanders only saw four touches compared to Hubbard’s 24. He is merely a backup RB who rarely comes in to give Hubbard a breather and isn’t very effective running the ball at this point in time. He is okay as a pass catcher but should be mostly limited to those duties instead of rushing the ball.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Diontae Johnson: 10 Targets, 6 Receptions, 78 Yards, TD
Diontae Johnson was again the apple of Andy Dalton’s eye, leading the team in targets, receptions, and yards yet again. Diontae is one of the elite separators in the entire NFL and his man-beating ability is being capitalized on by Dalton much more than it was with Bryce Young under center. Diontae’s skillset as one of the great route runners was on full display in the early-going as he caught everything that came his way on the Panthers’ first scoring drive of the game. Johnson grabbed all three of his targets for three receptions, 46 yards, and the touchdown on that first quarter drive. Diontae was mostly held in check after that first drive, managing only three receptions on 7 targets for 32 yards throughout the rest of the game. On Johnson’s touchdown, he created just the tiniest bit of space on his deep slant and Dalton hit him at the perfect time. However, the ball was slightly misplaced and Diontae had to reach back to grab the ball, doing so impressively when he snared the ball out of the air using only his hands before the defender could do anything. The Falcons defense really focused on him in the second half and forced the rest of the Panthers to beat them, something they simply could not do with the defense proving incapable of getting stops.
Ja’Tavion Sanders: 7 Targets, 5 Receptions, 49 Yards
In a game where Andy Dalton threw the ball nearly 40 times, TE Ja’Tavion Sanders saw a nearly 20% target share (18.4%). He was second on the team in targets with seven, trailing only Diontae Johnson for the lead. He has averaged 6 targets/game over the last two weeks and might be slowly becoming a more reliable option in the passing game. With fellow TE Tommy Tremble out this week due to concussion, Sanders stepped in more than admirably, seeing more targets than Tremble had in any game all season. Sanders’ athletic ability and his performance in this game might have made a case for him to have a more featured role moving forward. Sanders’ encouraging performance over the past two weeks is a sign of Andy Dalton playing under center being the right move as he is allowing for the young pass catchers to show off more of their talent.
Xavier Legette: 4 Targets, 3 Receptions, 23 Yards, TD
Another beneficiary of the change to Dalton running the offense, Xavier Legette grabbed another touchdown, his second TD in his past three games. Legette capped off the Panthers’ impressive two-minute drill touchdown drive with an epic catch in the back corner of the endzone. With less than 10 seconds left in the first half, Dalton delivered a beautiful jump ball to where only Legette had a chance on making a play on the ball, and Legette absolutely made the most of his chance, posterizing the defender while doing an awesome job coming down with the ball in bounds and inside the endzone. Legette high-pointed the ball perfectly and again flashed his athletic ability and big-play potential on a perfectly placed ball from Dalton. This play perfectly encapsulates why Dalton needs to be starting for the Panthers as he allows for them to properly evaluate the young pass-catching talent on the roster. With Bryce Young behind center, Legette never gets the chance to make that play, whereas now he is more consistently showing flashes of high potential. Outside of the touchdown, Legette was mostly quiet on the day.
Jalen Coker: 3 Targets, 3 Receptions, 30 Yards
Young rookie WR Jalen Coker is benefitting from the absence of WR Adam Thielen, playing increased snaps in each week since his injury. Coker is making the most of it, securing all seven targets that have come his way this year for seven receptions. Today he snagged all three targets for three receptions for 30 yards. His snaps and routes run have gone up in three consecutive weeks and without Thielen, he is making his case as the best man for the WR2 job opposite Johnson, though he still has Legette in his way. Coker finished third on the team in yards, and with Carolina’s defensive inability to stop anything, the game scripts moving forward could continue to be positive, affording Coker more opportunities to shine.
David Moore: 2 Targets, 2 Receptions, 17 Yards