What We Saw 2023: Week 6

Lions @ Buccaneers

Final Score: Lions xx, Buccaneers xx

Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on Twitter)

I missed the first 5 minutes of this game because I was forced to watch Kyle Hatahan try to make Brock Purdy a real boy without two of his four insurance policies out. Turns out, there may be some more growing to do before we go to Sears for big boy pants. ONTO THE GAME AT HAND! Starting my viewing coverage with a pick is a tremendous start. The remainder of the first half wasn’t much more thrilling – I wouldn’t even characterize it as a ‘defensive battle’; it was just boring football. The play calling on both the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers sides was tremendously conservative, and as such, save for Amon-Ra St. Brown, it felt like a lot of going through the motions.

But to that last point – once St. Brown broke through the doldrums on the field and scampered into the endzone at the tail end of the first half, both squads seemed to get a solid snootful of smelling salts. Carried over the halftime break, both the Lions and Bucs came out firing at a higher energy rate and started getting loose. It was at this juncture in the game that it became very clear that the Lions were simply better at it. There are a few points that might point to why that’s so, but from watching Detroit pull away consistently in the second half I think the biggest differentiators were 1) the quantity of legitimate offensive options, and 2) the willingness and forethought applied to incorporating those players with attention paid to their strengths. More on that below, but perhaps one of the root causes here is simply that Jared Goff has a higher comfort level with his guys than Baker Mayfield has at this point. It’s not strictly a ‘he’s played with these guys longer’ factor – Sam LaPorta is just as new to the league as Trey Palmer is, for example. But I think it may be that Goff has been in Ben Johnson’s system an additional year (as OC, and Johnson was working on staff before that) and the system has clear planning towards the individual skill sets. Comparatively, Dave Canales is still tinkering with his first-year offense, with a new QB and weapons. Regardless of my conjecture, Detroit was just flat-out a better team.

This block by Craig Reynolds on Amon-Ra's touchdown 💪

📺: #DETvsTB on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/B4mQvLOt8O pic.twitter.com/L3fgojgE7P

— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2023

Four Up

• CREAMSICLES – Give me one justifiable reason why Tampa Bay doesn’t just go back to these bad boys of uniforms. The red and blacks have always struck me as too Falcons-adjacent, while these orange, white (and a smattering of red) fever dreams are just insanely great. Just like in the old days, these uniforms can carry a terrific amount of weight in distracting from a subpar on-field performance. Sunshine on nylon!
• Amon-Ra St. Brown – St. Brown returned this week from injury and didn’t miss a step. On a team with an organized approach to their offensive attack, and one that values balance (assuming most of the available options are healthy), Amon-Ra nonetheless consistently stands out as the star.
• Josh Reynolds – While the stat line doesn’t show anything spectacular, Reynolds is really looking like Goff’s insurance policy – if he absolutely, positively needs a play to happen, it goes to Reynolds. From a fantasy view, he’s currently still riding in the flex play lane, but it’s clear that he’s got both his quarterback’s trust AND his back, and as the season kicks down the line, and injuries start to stack up, I like Reynolds reliability for my bench now, and potentially WR3 (maybe even a 2?) down the line.
• Chris Godwin – back-to-back good fantasy performances from Godwin, after a slow start to the season. Still needs to see the end zone, but his usage is up and should be getting him back into starting lineups.

Three Down

• Detroit Running Backs – Already without the underproductive (fantasy-wise) but clear RB2 Jahmyr Gibbs walking into today, this backfield took another kick in the gut (or perhaps more accurately, the ribs) with the first-half exit of David Montgomery. Initial x-rays came back as negative (I assume for breaks, but I don’t know enough about what they’re looking for), so hopefully this is a short-term hurdle for Detroit. For the immediate (today) replacement backs Craig Reynolds (and to a somehow lesser degree, Devine Ozigbo) gave little need to rush to a waiver wire for this week regardless.
• Rachaad White – An almost even split on carries with Ke’Shawn Vaughn, this wasn’t just a case of ‘the game was out of hand and Tampa was just throwing’, White did nothing to reward fantasy loyalists and believers (of which I am neither, admittedly). Just a non-factor today.
• Sam LaPorta – I’m confident this is a one-week appearance more than likely here, but through the lens of fantasy, we’ve all gotten over our apprehension and started trusting Sam as a TE1….so of course this week was terrible.

Detroit Lions

Quarterback

Jared Goff: 30/44, 343 yards, 2 TD, 3 sacks | 2 carries, 3 yards

Goff is a good mid-to-high fantasy quarterback who will occasionally give you a tremendous day like today – he’s still not the most exciting choice, maybe, but the numbers are there. While watching him I still tend to fall into a trap of viewing him as a ‘game manager’ rather than a team leader – but that’s honestly bias from his Rams’ days still creeping through. It’s clear this is Goff’s team, and he’s grown into a reliable fantasy option, which is something I wouldn’t have imagined typing as recently as last year.

Notes

• Looks like a flustered stork running from drunk teenagers when pressured to move out of the pocket in a hurry.
• Goff is adapting his throwing and playing style to work with this offensive scheme, and there’s significant improvement weekly.
• Great sense of calm, and control – Goff doesn’t seem to get rattled easily. The Lions’ line does a generally great job by him.

Missed Opportunities

• Underthrow on late first-quarter shot to LaPorta definitely would have liked a do-over on.
• My wife just described Goff as ‘an ugly Ryan Gosling’ at the end of the first half. Hopefully, this doesn’t affect his second-half performance.
• Behind and high on LaPorta on a third down attempt that killed the opening second-half drive

Running Back

David Montgomery: 6 carries, 14 yards | 1 target, 1 reception, 19 yards   INJURED

There’s not much to throw down on digital paper here, for an obvious reason. Monty didn’t have a lot of early success in the first quarter but looked to spring to life on the very play he was injured. A tough break for a guy who has turned into a stable fantasy play. Hopefully, he’ll be back soon.

Notes

• Great vision following the blocks and lanes on his first breakthrough play in the late second – which then led to him being walked off the field.

Craig Reynolds: 10 carries, 15 yards | 2 targets, 2 receptions, 28 yards

What Reynolds brings to the Lions’ offense seems to be more successful regarding blocking and some hustle – as far as offensive production (and more importantly, fantasy production) goes, I’m not all that sold on him. Pressed into action today unexpectedly, he didn’t bring anything of value to your total – then again, you weren’t playing him. He had a decent stat line last week in a blowout, and there might be some value if the Lions gameplan to feature him – but that’s a BIG might, and contingent on both Montgomery and Gibbs missing more time. This week was abysmal from a fantasy standpoint, and I wouldn’t be rostering him without consistent real-life work. He was more effective in his little work in the passing game over the actual running.

Notes

• Just straight up plastered a defender creating just enough space for St. Brown to maneuver in for the score. Even if he does nothing else, there’s always room for a blocker.
• Made a lot out of a little screen pass to kick off the Lions third quarter

Devine Ozigbo: 3 carries, 5 yards | 1 target, 1 reception, 8 yards

I’ll be honest and note that I only remember one of Ozigbo’s carries, and it was the first one because there was a conversation about how he was elevated to the game-day roster this week. Today’s three carries were one more than he’s gotten the two previous seasons combined. He is not a deep sleeper, and we will likely not speak of him again this year.

Notes

• No notes. Didn’t really do anything of note, so this checks out.

Missed Opportunities

• Today. Today was a good opportunity to not go back to the practice squad. But that was indeed missed.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Amon-Ra St. Brown: 15 targets, 12 receptions, 124 yards, TD

Amon-Ra St. Brown came back from a week out from injury and emphatically had the best performance in this game. St. Brown is a legitimate superstar and stands out on a very good Lions’ offense consistently. During a dreary and dull first half, St. Brown provided almost all of the highlights from both sides and continued output throughout the second half. The touchdown catch and run was the best play of this game, with really only one other contender.

Notes

• Great hands and concentration early. The offense flows threw Amon-Ra when he’s healthy.
• The late second-quarter touchdown was incredible effort and footwork.
• On a team that’s expanding their receiver usage seemingly weekly, Amon-Ra is regardless a clear-cut WR1.

Missed Opportunities

• Hold killed off a first down for Reynolds, but it had no adverse effect

Jameson Williams: 3 targets, 2 receptions, 53 yards, TD

Goff does DEEP to Jameson Williams for the 45-yard TD!

📺: #DETvsTB on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/B4mQvLOt8O pic.twitter.com/7SnwzpjmbM

— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2023

I don’t think anybody initially figured that Jameson Williams would become a special feature of a player in the NFL, but as of now, following a lost season and a quarter, it’s his fit. With a total of six catches in his career – but with three of them for touchdowns – he’s a feast-or-famine play for fantasy work right now. If you took a wild flyer on him this week, congratulations! He was featured almost exclusively on that drive, and nary a glance or consideration came Jameson’s way the remainder of the game. His skill and athleticism are off-world, but if I were a betting man, I would put my money that it’s going to take him a bit to regain the trust of Dan Campbell and the Lions. He should eventually overtake Reynolds, he’s just got more raw materials to work with, but that may not even be happening this year. Tremendous touchdown catch.

Notes

• Followed up the blown play listed below with a beautiful endzone grab off his shoulder for the touchdown

Missed Opportunities

• Choked on a wide-open opportunity in the third – created separation from the defender, followed by creating more separation from the ball, however, see above.

Josh Reynolds: 3 targets, 3 receptions, 50 yards

Interesting note by the announce team that coming into today, all 17 of Reynolds’ receptions this year have been for first downs or touchdowns. The announcing team made more than one reference that Reynolds and Goff are comfortable with each other from the LA days, and it shows. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an increase in opportunities moving forward, Reynolds was incredibly effective each chance he got this week.

Notes

• Terrific positioning on the first target of the day for the first down
• WOW. Near-Matrix body contortion for his second catch and first down late in the 2nd.

Khalif Raymond: 3 targets, 3 receptions, 23 yards

Another option on an offense that when working as intended, spreads it around a lot (10 players notched at least one reception today, including Brock Wright and in time for Halloween, the ghost of Marvin Jones). He’s going to continue to work as their punt returner, but wouldn’t expect him to be better than the 5th or 6th option on most plays. Not rosterable.

Sam LaPorta: 11 targets, 4 receptions, 36 yards

That stat line tells the story – this just wasn’t Sam’s week. He was involved in the game plan, but through some twist of fate, or perhaps the result of the cruel humor of the fantasy gods, he played like a rookie TE for the first time this year. It’s nothing I’m worrying about going forward, one week does not a trend make, but here’s hoping you didn’t need a big output from LaPorta to put you over this week. Lord knows I did.

Notes

• LaPorta continues to present himself weekly with veteran-measured routes, and confidence. Looks like he’s been here before.

Missed Opportunities

• Great shot at a hero grab late in the first – couldn’t hold onto a pass that was not ideally placed.
• Missing quite a few chances all over the place today

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield: 19/37, 206 yards,  INT, sack | 2 carries, 6 yards

I really like Baker, or maybe I just miss his commercials, but this week wasn’t it for him even a little bit. Leading off with a deflected interception on his first play of the second series it just didn’t feel like this was going to be one of Baker’s better days, and it wasn’t. What’s working? Well, for starters, Baker has developed an incredibly quick release and is getting the ball on the way to its destination (hopefully), faster than the average bear. Or something like that. What’s not working? Unless that destination is Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, there’s a strong chance it’s not going to arrive at the same time as the ball, at least not yet. Whereas Evans and Godwin have the experience and talent that allowed them to adapt to Mayfield (and vice-versa) relatively quickly, it’s going to be a bit for the younger guys and Bake to iron it out. Until they do, if they do, we’re going to see a few miserable fantasy days like today. Mayfield is playing much better than his previous couple of years, but this looks like a timing-reliant system/approach, so your results may vary from week to week. This week was sadness.

Notes

• If Baker was two or three steps faster, he’d be considerably more dangerous; however ‘mid-career Ben Rothlisberger‘ is where he’s at now.
• Midway through the second quarter, Baker finally got to air one out. Looks like he’s itching for more.
• Textbook ‘blowing on my owie to make it feel better’ technique when rehabbing a slightly bloody finger at end of the half. A gamer.
• Baker’s quick-release is terrific – this is super effective with the veterans Evans and Godwin, will take a bit with the younger guys.

Missed Opportunities

• Couldn’t throw over notable ‘tallish’ guy Isiah Buggs leading to a pick rather than a surefire touchdown. The Throwback Mayfield feeling.
• Terrible decision on attempt to Vaughn – bad placement for the receiver, but somehow the only place it wasn’t a high-pick probability, followed shortly with another bad one on a slant attempt to Thompkins.
• Launched a straight missile about 7 yards further than he needed to on a late second-quarter shot to Parker. Timing with the young guy is not quite there yet.
• This is more a critique of the play-calling, but there was no urgency toward getting either Evans or Godwin involved until the game was out of hand.

Running Back

Rachaad White: 7 carries, 26 yards | 4 targets, 3 receptions, 12 yards

As I’m generally writing Sit/Starts here, and generally pull that duty for the Green Bay Packers games, what I’m about to say here you could probably see coming from states away, but for those unfamiliar with one of my strongest unyielding positions this season, here goes: this is exactly the kind of success and statistical line you would normally see from a game an AJ Dillon started, and you don’t want an AJ Dillon game out of your fantasy RB. Not even a hint of it. Detroit has a pretty good defense, but I didn’t see them as playing Tampa particularly aggressively today – they just controlled them, and White in particular. Once the second half started, Tampa all but abandoned the run game completely. I don’t think White is fully developed yet, and the system is a work in progress, but this wasn’t a game to phone your family about.

Notes

• Increasingly better, showing a little more patience and vision as the game has developed. It’s not game-breaking, but it’s allowing Rachaad to get an extra 2-3 yards with body motion that he wasn’t getting early

Missed Opportunities

• Dropped a catchable third-down ball to close out forward momentum on the first series.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn: 6 carries, 9 yards | 2 targets, 0 receptions

Perhaps as a favor to his backfield friend, Ke’Shawn Vaughn took nearly the same amount of carries and half the targets of Raschaad White and gave nobody any reason to think about making a switch in the backfield. This is only the second game we’ve seen Vaughn register any carries, and based on the data so far, I wouldn’t think we’ll be worrying about the waiver order to get to him anytime in the knowable future.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Mike Evans: 10 targets, 4 receptions,49 yards

This was a pretty wasteful game for all of Tampa Bay this week, with one notable exception below, and even the reliable Mike Evans had a tough go of it this week. To his defense, Tampa didn’t seem to remember he or Chris Godwin were available and on the field most of the time until the second half, and then it was a shooting gallery of targets after that. It’s hard to sit Mike, and I’m sure you didn’t, and really shouldn’t – he’s the best guy generally out there, and one of the two established and reliable threats the Buccaneers currently have.  This is two weeks straight, granted, but I don’t think you can get the value back for him that he should be bringing later in the year as TB settles into a better groove.

Notes

• Evans is naturally commanding. Even on a simple out route in the third quarter, he (and Godwin) just carry themselves with authority and poise.

Missed Opportunities

• Kind of a ticky-tack on the PI call where Evans legit looked like he stumbled into a guy, I get that was the correct call, but that’s unfortunate.

Chris Godwin: 7 targets, 6 receptions, 77 yards

Whereas Evans has been on the downslope for two weeks, Chris Godwin followed up his monster outing against the Saints last week with another good outing against the Lions. While I note the same thing as with Evans, early on it felt like the offense was not focusing on relying on Godwin, and at this stage under a new Offensive Coordinator, with a ‘new house, who dis?’ quarterback, a running attack that needs a lot more love and work, and youngsters all around, these two NEED to be the focal point early and often. There’s a point where ‘developing players and the system’ needs to yield to ‘trying to win’ and the Buccaneers turned to the duo way too late to pull this one out from a plunge to the depths again. Godwin sees a lot of looks like a typical possession receiver would and makes more from it more often than not. Detroit has a strong defense overall, and he saw success against it, I’m comfortably looking at him in the WR2/WR3 range going forward.

Notes

• Nice drop down for the first down on a low ball in the first
• Consistently taking what appears to be possession receiver balls and opportunities and making more from them.

Trey Palmer:  7 targets, 2 receptions, 47 yards

Buccaneers rookie Trey Palmer continues to be an impactful player this season. Picks up big yards on this crosser.

The sixth-round pick out of Nebraska brings major deep speed to Tampa Bay. pic.twitter.com/hNDeZ0lhfs

— Seven Rounds in Heaven (@7RoundsInHeaven) October 15, 2023

So when I’m speaking about the Buccaneers’ new system, and Baker Mayfield specifically, needing to work out some timing issues, I’m pretty well pointing directly at Trey Palmer, who looks like he could be absolutely devastating to opposing secondaries if Baker could throw a few where Trey is actually going to be, and not over him. This stat line for Parker is absolutely more on the throws than the receiver this week and could be the missing piece that prevented the Buccaneers from really mounting a serious comeback here. Tampa Bay needs more weapons than just Mike and Chris if they’re going to start putting together a run you can have some belief in, and Trey Parker needs to be part of the next steps.

Deven Thompkins: 4 targets, 2 receptions, -2 yards | 1 carry, 5 yards

Deven Thompkins looked very much like the Buccaneers kick returner today. His best non-returning play was the end-around run, where he flashed a little of the speed that is bound to get Tampa to use him in more gadget plays, but he has no value in fantasy.

Notes

• Super speedy – it looks like Tampa is trying to figure out how to get him involved in at least minor gadget plays.

Missed Opportunities

• Under two minutes touchdown opportunity – back fell a little behind, Thompkins lost on the battle for the ball, looked outmatched

Cade Otton: 2 targets, 1 reception, 15 yards 

Payne Durham: 1 target, 1 reception, 8 yards

Both of these Tampa Bay tight ends are non-factors. Today for certain, and most weeks as well. I saw nothing today that makes me think that opinion will change any time this year. Even in a year where even moderate tight end play should get a man at least considered for a shot at the starting lineup most weeks, neither of these guys should come off your wire.