Seattle Seahawks @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Final Score: Seahawks 20, Jaguars 12
Writer: Geoff Ulrich (@thefantasygrind on X/Twitter)
Jacksonville ran into a better version of itself in this game. Both teams have solid D-lines, but Seattle completely dominated this game, sacking Trevor Lawrence seven times. Lawrence was also the worst QB in this game by a long shot. Sam Darnold averaged 10.9 yards per attempt and hit a couple of big plays downfield, while Lawrence was far more skittish and less accurate on deep balls. He attempted 42 passes to Darnold’s 27, but Darnold outgained him by 37 yards.
Outside of Brian Thomas Jr., pretty much everyone had a poor day for fantasy on Jax, and the story was similar for Seattle, as Jaxon Smith-Njigba really dominated the usage and has a legitimate claim to being the best WR in the game after this week (he’s top five in my mind already). We’ll break it all down below.
Three Up
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba — His usual amazing self.
- Sam Darnold — The better QB in this game by a long shot.
- Brian Thomas Jr. — Was beating the Seattle secondary most of the day.
Three Down
- Trevor Lawrence — Lots of poor throws and got sacked seven times.
- Travis Etienne — Tough matchup, so he gets a pass, but didn’t do much.
- Travis Hunter — No follow-through from last week’s nice game. He had some mistakes.
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback
Sam Darnold: 16/27, 295 Yards, 2 TD | 4 carries, 2 yards
Sam Darnold is turning into a weekly start for fantasy. This was the fourth time he’s thrown for multiple TD passes in his last five starts, and he’s now averaging 9.3 yards per attempt on the season. He was under pressure in this game on a lot of dropbacks, but stood in the pocket well and benefited from a very quick release and reads. It helps that he has Jaxon Smith-Njigba as his top wide receiver, who gets open faster than anyone, but Darnold’s ability to read quickly and release accurate balls over the middle and to the sidelines time and time again is a big part of the equation here as well.
The big play was the 61-yard TD to JSN, where the Seahawks set the Jaguars up on play action and got JSN in single coverage on what looked like a clear go route. Darnold just dropped back, looked once, and delivered a strike. It was a great throw, but the real meat of the game by Darnold was standing in the pocket and delivering big midfield passes when he needed to. There was a very obvious difference between these two QBs skill-wise on display as Lawrence was always jumping up and down, moving too much, and often overthrowing receivers.
Time to start looking at Darnold as an every-week option for fantasy.
Running Back
Kenneth Walker III: 10 Carries, 34 Yards | 1 Target, 1 Reception, 3 Yards
This was just a poor setup for all the RBs in this game. Both teams have great defensive lines, especially when it comes to stopping the run. Kenneth Walker III looked fine in this game, and the Seahawks continued the trend of using him in midfield and Zach Charbonnet near the goal line. Walker had a couple of nice runs, including one series where he gained them a first down on a couple of bigger gains, but was often stifled.
The issue for Walker owners is that even in a close game where the Seahawks relied on the pass, Walker could barely get involved as a receiver. The Seahawks aren’t using the screen game much, which really makes Walker a complete boom or bust option going forward. I guess he’s a low-end RB2, but feels like more of a flex option and not someone I’d want to rely on week-to-week.
Zach Charbonnet: 12 Carries, 24 Yards | 1 Targets, 1 Reception, 13 Yards
Zach Charbonnet was the inside-the-tackles runner for Seattle once again and got completely stifled here. Seattle’s O-line is just not great at run blocking and seems better on the outside-zone runs, than it does blocking up the middle. He did have a few carries inside the 10-yard line, but Jacksonville stuffed him inside the 5-yard line.
Charbonnet remains a complete TD-dependent play for fantasy as he’ll rarely gain big yards thanks to Walker and the O-line, and doesn’t get used much in the passing game.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 13 Targets, 8 Receptions, 162 Yards, TD
Just another superb game from Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I’ve done a lot of Seahawks writeups this year, and every week it’s just the same thing, JSN beating his man quickly and lighting him up for multiple 10- or 20-yard gains, and then eventually they overcommit and he beats them deep. This week was no different. On CB Greg Newsome‘s first play with his new team, Smith-Njigba beat him on a go route down the middle for 61 yards.
The Jaguars played him a little tighter after that, but just like Tampa Bay last week, that just made them more susceptible to getting beaten elsewhere, and eventually JSN started getting receptions again. I have yet to see a team be able to shut him down for more than a quarter (two max). He’s a top-three fantasy asset at the moment and a must-play every week. Godspeed to the people who took Marvin Harrison Jr. over him in drafts.
Cooper Kupp: 4 Targets, 2 Receptions, 40 Yards, TD
I thought Cooper Kupp looked reasonably good in this game and maybe even a step quicker than he has in past games. His TD was another really nice throw by Darnold, perhaps one of his best of the game, where he slid it just over the top of the defender’s reach to Kupp on a corner route in the end zone. Kupp isn’t getting great separation, but he came down with that ball and another big gain over the middle.
Again, it’s a shame this wasn’t 2021 Cooper Kupp because the Seahawks might get 350-plus passing yards a game if that were the case, but he fits in well for Seattle as a sort of secondary option to punish teams who over-commit to JSN. Not a ton of upside for fantasy, but likely a lock for 2-5 catches almost every week.
Tory Horton: 1 Targets, 0 Receptions
The rookie receivers have taken a step back for Seattle over the last couple of weeks. Tory Horton still looks good to me and nearly had a big gain over the middle, but it was broken up at the last second. It’s possible we see him get worked in more as the secondary WR in the back half of the season, but he’s nothing more than a deep stash at this point.
Elijah Arroyo: 2 Target, 1 Reception, 6 Yards
Everything I said about Horton applies to Elijah Arroyo.
At one point, it looked like Seattle was trying to make him a bigger part of the red-zone offense, but AJ Barner has been taking all those looks. Arroyo looks fine to me, but I don’t see him doing much with Barner playing so well.
AJ Barner: 3 Targets, 3 Receptions, 71 Yards
Barner honestly wasn’t doing much in this game for a long portion of it. Jacksonville does guard against tight ends well, so attacking with the WRs made sense in this spot. Still, he made his presence known late when Seattle was trying to close out the game. Darnold needed a play, and the Jaguars had JSN covered, so he rolled back the other way and hit Barner, who had managed to break free.
It was a bit of a broken play, but Barner showed good open-field skills by getting past several defenders on his way to a 61-yard gain. He and Kupp are the secondary receivers who will benefit every week when teams try to shut down JSN, and he remains the primary pass-catching TE for Seattle.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence: 27/42, 258 yards, 2TD | 3 carry, 9 yards
I don’t think Trevor Lawrence is terrible or anything, but in a game this close, with two tough defensive lines, he got outplayed. Lawrence started the game by missing Brian Thomas Jr. on a wide-open throw for a big gain, but managed to recover by hitting Thomas in the end zone on a nice play design. Seattle’s secondary was missing a lot of starters, and the broken coverage looked like it might allow for Lawrence to go off. Almost nothing worked for Lawrence after that TD drive.
He was sacked seven times, and certainly Seattle’s defensive line deserves a lot of credit, but Lawrence also missed a lot of throws outside the pocket and was taking easy checkdowns compared to Darnold, who was standing in the pocket and making throws all game.
Overall, you’d expect a lot more from your QB vs. a secondary this banged up. He just doesn’t handle pressure well, and unlike last week, he contributed nothing with his legs. As a fantasy QB, he’ll have his weeks thanks to having so many great receivers, but he’s not taking the team far on his own.
Running Back
Travis Etienne: 12 carries, 27 yards | 5 targets, 4 receptions, 28 yards
Seattle remains one of the toughest opponents for opposing RBs. Travis Etienne was completely shut down in this spot, and it wasn’t really much of his doing. Lawrence was missing throws, so they had to keep punting, and it didn’t give Etienne a chance to get into rhythm.
I will say, perhaps this game does lead to the staff giving more carries to Bhayshul Tuten, who does look pretty good to me, so there is a little worry ahead that Etienne loses some work going forward. Still, this game should be taken as an outlier thanks to the elite defense of Seattle.
Bhayshul Tuten: 2 carries, 14 yards | 3 targets, 2 receptions, 14 yards
Bhayshul Tuten looks good to me, and a player I expect will get more work soon. He only had four touches in this game, but most were positive, and the Jaguars did give him a 2-point conversion run, which came up just short.
Not a ton to report here, but the Jaguars did give him more work in the passing game, which was a solid development. He looks very similar to me to Etienne, so it would make sense if we see more balanced usage from the Jax RBs going forward.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Brian Thomas Jr.: 10 Targets, 8 Receptions, 90 Yards, TD
Brian Thomas Jr. was the big bright spot for this offense. He took advantage of the beat-up secondary for Seattle, getting open for multiple big plays downfield. As nice a game as it was, the opportunity for more was certainly there. He straight dropped a pass in the middle of the field for a at least a 15-yard gain and also had a big TD called back due to an off-the-ball penalty.
His TD came on a really nice play design where Lawrence rolled out and the defenders all got sucked down low trying to defend a short screen while Thomas broke free to the end zone. I would still worry about Thomas a little going forward, as his QB tends to be shaky on contested throws, and you also have the Hunter factor, who could take work away some weeks.
Still, he’s the true No. 1 WR in this offense, and with the Jaguars refusing to give Travis Hunter more work on offense, he looks likely to remain in that role for the time being.
Travis Hunter: 7 Targets, 4 Receptions, 15 Yards
The Jaguars were trying to get Travis Hunter involved in short passes in this game, and the Seahawks were having none of it. They were keying in on Hunter before he could move or disrupting him before the pass.
On the one play where he did manage to get a bit of room for a 14-yard gain, you could see how good he is in the open field, as he completely broke the ankles of the first defender and turned a one-yard pass into big yards. Hunter also had a few little miscues with Lawrence and certainly didn’t do his QB any favors. Credit to Seattle, but this wasn’t a good follow-up to his game vs. the Chiefs. The Jaguars would do themselves well to start opening up his route tree and making Thomas and Hunter co-WR1s, like Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase for the Bengals.
Dyami Brown: 5 Targets, 2 Receptions, 13 Yards
Dyami Brown is a nice receiver, but he’s losing out in Jacksonville most weeks due to the team having invested so much in Thomas and Hunter. He’s had trouble with drops, but did come down with one nice sideline grab here for a first down.
If Thomas ever went down, Brown might have a shot at producing a big game or two, as he did in Washington last year when he was getting primary targets. He’s a bit of a Thomas handcuff in that regard, but as is, not someone I’d be looking to stash in fantasy.
Parker Washington: 4 Targets, 2 Receptions, 29 Yards
Started to get some targets late when Jacksonville was behind. Being used mostly in four-WR sets, and takes a back seat with Brown healthy. Lawrence likes looking for him on short routes, as he has good after-the-catch ability.
If any of the starters go down, he would be useful as a bye week fill-in.
Hunter Long: 3 Targets, 2 Receptions, 19 Yards
Might be the replacement TE for Brenton Strong, but Johnny Mundt also caught a ball. Hunter Long might be good as a bye-week fill-in down the road, but this receiving unit really spreads the ball.
Tim Patrick: 1 Target, 1 Reception, 26 Yards, TD
His TD came on a completely broken play where Lawrence was scrambling for his life for 10 seconds, barely getting snaps otherwise.