What We Saw: Week 6

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

Carolina Panthers

 

Quarterback

 

• Kyle Allen: 20/32, 227 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

 

With Jameis Winston self-destructing on the other side of the field in London, Kyle Allen simply needed to take care of the football in this one. Allen has fallen back from his breakout first start against the Cardinals, but he is running the offense and avoiding turnovers, which is really all that can be asked from a backup quarterback. He has shown the ability to get the ball to his playmakers, and we should be confident that the offense will continue to function in Cam Newton‘s absence. Allen was stuffed on a qb sneak that would have boosted his fantasy day, but he typically should be avoided in fantasy outside of two-quarterback leagues. This was as good of a matchup for a passing game as you’ll get, and Allen’s fantasy upside is fairly limited.

 

Running Backs

 

• Christian McCaffrey:  22 carries, 31 yards, 1 TD | 5 targets, 4 receptions, 26 yards, 1 TD

 

This Tampa Bay run defense is legit, as Christian McCaffrey was running into a brick wall for most of the afternoon. When the Panthers got McCaffrey in space in the passing game he showed his usual explosiveness, as evidenced on his 25-yard receiving touchdown where he made several defenders miss. Overall, it was a bit of a dissapointing day that was salvaged by two touchdowns, showing just how elite McCaffrey is from a fantasy perspective. He has big play ability, elite passing game volume, and an elite red zone role, the trifecta of fantasy value. Throw in his over the top snap rate (the announcers actually joked about it the few times that McCaffrey came off the field) and you have the number one player in fantasy.

 

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

 

• DJ Moore:  10 targets, 7 receptions, 73 yards | 1 carry, 13 yards
• Curtis Samuel: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD | 1 carry, 8 yards, 1 TD
• Greg Olsen: 7 targets, 4 receptions, 52 yards 

 

DJ Moore had a good game as the chain mover in the offense, and he appeared to be on the same page as Allen the whole game. This was a top-end matchup for Moore, and it would have been nice to see him score a touchdown, but you can’t be too upset with this game, especially in PPR leagues. He was Allen’s most dependable option and should see plenty of work going forward.

Curtis Samuel provided some big plays for the offense, and added in two touchdowns; one on a red zone reverse, and the other on a back-shoulder fade where he fought the ball away from the defender. Samuel looked like a good route runner and had a good connection with Allen. There will be down games from Samuel, as he is behind McCaffrey and sometimes Moore in the pecking order, and this is a run-first offense in most matchups. But Samuel is a talented player who is just scratching the surface and should be trusted in fantasy lineups most weeks.

Greg Olsen had a bounce-back game after a couple of duds, as he looked healthy and was targeted often. Tampa Bay has struggled against tight ends, and Olsen took advantage of the defense for a solid fantasy day. Olsen is probably best fit for streaming good matchups like this one, as there are three options ahead of him in the passing game most weeks. But in the tough world of fantasy tight ends, you could do a lot worse than Olsen every week.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

Quarterback

 

• Jameis Winston: 30/54, 400 yards, 1 TD, 5 INT | 7 sacks, 1 fumble lost

 

This was the ultimate bad Jameis Winston game, as Winston threw an interception on the first play of the game and never recovered. Missing his right guard and right tackle, Winston was constantly under pressure, getting sacked 7 times. On consecutive plays in the red zone, Winston was strip-sacked, with him losing the second for a devastating turnover. Winston had defenders in his face all day, and it became clear that he was feeling the pressure, leading to bad interceptions and erratic movement in the pocket. Winston could have had a 75-yard touchdown at the end of the half that Mike Evans dropped, which would have pulled Tampa Bay within three points. And a couple of Winston’s interceptions were certainly in desperation mode where he was taking chances downfield. But this is yet another reminder of Winston’s boom/bust nature. Carolina’s tough pass defense took advantage of his mistakes, and I would be very hesitant to play Winston outside of positive defensive matchups, relegating him to a streaming option in most fantasy leagues.

 

Running Backs

 

• Peyton Barber: 8 carries, 28 yards 
• Ronald Jones: 4 carries, 10 yards, 1 TD
• Dare Ogunbowale: 1 carry, 3 yards, 1 TD | 5 targets, 3 receptions, 22 yards

 

The Buccaneers were unable to get anything going on the ground, and continued to split up the work, making none of these options exciting going forward. Ronald Jones looked explosive on his 5-yard touchdown run in the second quarter, but very few opportunities otherwise and was not targeted in the passing game. We know what Perton Barber is by now, and if he isn’t getting the full volume as a featured back, it is very hard to count on him in fantasy football. Dare Ogunbowale scored his touchdown deep into the fourth quarter and would need an injury to be fantasy relevant.

 

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

 

• Chris Godwin: 12 targets, 10 receptions, 151 yards
• Mike Evans:  17 targets, 9 receptions, 96 yards
• Cameron Brate: 4 targets, 2 receptions, 47 yards, 1 TD
• O.J. Howard: 4 targets, 2 receptions, 35 yards
• Scotty Miller: 7 targets, 3 receptions, 39 yards

 

As mentioned above, Mike Evans could have a 75-yard touchdown added to his line, as he let a ball bounce off his hands late in the first half as he pulled away from a defender down the sidelines. While fantasy owners in tight matchups are likely cursing Evans today, this was still an encouraging game after last week’s dud. With 17 targets and 9 receptions, Evans was a huge part of the offense and looked like his usual self. He still seems to draw the opposing team’s top corner, as James Bradbury was often on Evans in this one. Keep playing Evans every week.

Chris Godwin continued to be Winston’s most reliable receiver, catching 10 of 12 targets and reaching 150 yards. Godwin is an excellent player in a high volume passing offense and can be counted on every week. Having Evans around to draw coverage to the other side of the field is icing on the cake for Godwin.

O.J. Howard was thrown a tight end screen where he looked athletic and nearly scored a touchdown. But as you can see from the lines, he is splitting up too much of the work with Cameron Brate to ever be a true fantasy difference-maker. The fact that Winston loves to look towards Brate in the red zone doesn’t help either. You can see pretty clearly that if you lumped together both stat lines, you would have something that looks like Howard’s much-anticipated breakout year. But as long as both of these tight ends are healthy, it looks like they will continue to sap each other’s fantasy value.

After watching the whole game, I was surprised to see that Scotty Miller had 7 targets. The sixth-round rookie didn’t do anything to warrant more work going forward, and there doesn’t seem to be much room in the passing game for him to be fantasy relevant. But he’s worth watchlisting in super deep leagues or in dynasty, as he looks capable of filling an Adam Humphries type role down the line.

 

-Erik Smith