What We Saw: Week 8

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

Final Score: Texans 23, Colts 20

Writer: Jason Wolf (J_Wolf_Picks on Twitter)

If you watched this game without a score bug on the screen, you would have thought that the Texans were simply dominating their way to an easy double-digit victory over the Colts. I watched it with a score bug…and I still felt like the Texans were up 14+ pretty much the whole way through the game. The teams traded field goals to open the first quarter until Anthony Richardson hit Josh Downs for a wide-open 69-yard catch-and-run touchdown that came out of nowhere. Richardson had started the game by completing only one of his first seven passes for 12 yards due to receivers dropping balls and his own inaccurate misfires. That was the only time the Texans would trail as they responded on their ensuing 10-play, 70-yard TD drive six minutes later. After three consecutive three-and-out drives, Richardson made what was probably his worst mistake of the day on a costly interception with time winding down in the first half. The Texans scored on the very next play on a beautifully thrown ball by CJ Stroud, which hit Tank Dell in the back of the end zone, going up 17-10 and never looking back. In the second half, Richardson’s accuracy issues got worse; both QBs were getting pressured and often hit by the opposing pass rush. At one point, Stroud had faced pressure on 20/28 drop-backs for an absurd 71.4% pressure rate. Between the right knee injury to Stefon Diggs in the third quarter, forcing him to leave the game (without return), and poor offensive line play, both offenses stuttered in the red zone in the second half. Ka’imi Fairbairn knocked in two FGs to barely put the game out of reach despite the Texans’ best attempts to keep the Colts in the game with costly penalties and the late Stroud/Mixon turnover. Only until the botched CJ Stroud to Joe Mixon pitch in the backfield that almost resulted in a defensive scoop & score recovery TD did it feel like the Colts were in the game. The Texans ended up coming away with the 23-20 win despite the subpar O-line play and injury to Diggs.

Two Up

• Joe Mixon – Mixon is the heart and soul of this offense. Even when the offense was firing on all cylinders with their full arsenal of weapons healthy and active, Mixon was carrying the ball 20+ times and racking up touchdowns. With Nico Collins on IR and now a non-contact injury to Stefon Diggs, the Texans will be relying on Mixon as much as ever, if not more. Mixon dominated the RB opportunities, accounting for 31 carries + targets, while the rest of the Houston backfield combined for three total. Mixon looked more than healthy today; he was excellent. Evading the first defender in the backfield, brute forcing his way through contact for YAC, and seeing six targets out of the backfield, Mixon is one of a few true workhorse RBs left. As long as he stays healthy, the Texans will lean on him, and he will be seeing the ball in and around the end zone.
• Jonathan Taylor – Returning from last week’s inactive tag, Jonathan Taylor looked excellent in his return from injury. Despite the negative game script for the majority of the game and a lot of defensive focus being on him, Taylor put up over 100 yards rushing on 20 carries, rocking a 5+ YPC in the process. Taylor was routinely making guys miss, beating them to the sidelines, or evading them with an electric jump-cut. Even in a game where the Colts were oddly attached to letting Richardson air it out despite the Texans being down two of their top linebackers, Taylor still produced numbers. Now that Taylor has shown he is healthy and can shoulder the load, there is no reason why the Colts shouldn’t ride him hard moving forward. There is a lot of room for his involvement in the passing game to grow as well.

Two Down

• CJ Stroud – Stroud was mostly very solid in this game. There were some uncharacteristic misses, but given the injuries to his top two receivers, as well as the constant pressure he was facing, he still delivered a very good real-life football game. Unfortunately, for most of you reading here, you need Stroud to produce fantasy football numbers, and that just isn’t happening. Now, down Stefon Diggs and with the offensive line putting in their worst performance of the year… I don’t exactly see Stroud starting to put up more gaudy stats. The Texans can rely on Joe Mixon, a nasty pass rush, and Stroud enough to grind out wins without Stroud throwing the ball a bunch to a currently not-so-star-studded WR group.
• Anthony Richardson – Outside of a completely busted coverage long touchdown to a wide-open Josh Downs, Anthony Richardson wasn’t doing anything in the first half of this game. Richardson started 1/7 with his only completion, a dump-off on a screen to Jonathan Taylor, who did all the work for the 12-yard gain. He then did a good job of finding the (wide) open Downs for the big gain but was still very lucky the defense completely blew their coverage on the play for the untouched Downs TD. For large periods of the game, Richardson was largely inaccurate and displayed poor football IQ under pressure, leading to costly mistakes. Having Jonathan Taylor back in the fold is great for the Colts but perhaps not-so-great for Richardson’s chances of scoring more short-distance TD’s.

Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback

Anthony Richardson:  10/32, 175 Yards, TD, INT | 6 Carries, 45 Yards

Accuracy is still very much the issue with Anthony Richardson. He started the game out 1/7 for 12 yards, with his only complete pass a dump-off to RB Jonathan Taylor. To be fair to Richardson, a couple of his first incomplete passes were perfectly on the money, but the Texans defenders did a great job to get a couple of pass breakups. Other than the score for the Colts, the positive takeaway from the blown-coverage TD pass to Josh Downs is that Richardson’s arm is one of the craziest in the league. He flicks the ball, and it just flies out of his hand with seemingly very minimal effort. Forty air yards like nothing. Moments like those, where he seemingly effortlessly makes football magic happen, remind us why he is starting and not Joe Flacco. There are also moments, though, which make large swaths of Colts fans demand to bring in Joe Flacco. With 35 seconds left in the first half and the game tied at 10-10, Richardson, from his own 12-yard line, made an inexcusably ill-advised throw into a crowded area where multiple defenders were. Not only was the decision horrible, but the throw might have been even worse, falling right into the defender’s hands to his (and everyone’s) surprise for the easy interception. Instead of going into halftime tied, encouraging because of AR’s poor performance, the Texans scored on the very next play and went up into halftime 17-10, a deflating sequence of events. Richardson was lucky not to have another turnover on a shotgun snap that he mishandled. He dropped the ball on the fake exchange/handoff and, fortunately, fell on the ball, preventing the turnover. Still, it was 3rd & 10 near field goal range, and even a few yard gain could have given them a chance at some points. The 10/32 passing is the story of the game as it’s an eye-popping sub-31% completion rate, but it also does do justice to how it felt watching this game. Between Richardson’s accuracy issues (especially in the middle quarters), the home-run playcalling, and the subpar offensive line play, it felt like a momentous occasion every time Richardson completed a pass. I will say, to his credit, he was under pressure a lot of the day as he took five sacks and another several QB hits. The pass protection was not good, and they kept dialing up long-developing pass plays, unfortunately for Richardson’s bones. Despite his issues and lowlights, Richardson did have some good moments as well. He did come out sharp, firing off several perfect passes to start the game, which Texans defenders did a really good job of breaking up. Both Adonai Mitchell and Tyler Goodson dropped surefire, would-be touchdowns for 30+ yards each, contributing to Richardson’s woeful completion % and overall poor day in the box score. The throw to Mitchell in particular was a 10/10 throw, probably Richardson’s best of the day. If Mitchell could have located the second foot in bounds, Richardson’s passing stats (and the Colts’ day) could have looked a lot different. Richardson also flashed his elite escapability and scramble drill prowess as he impressively dodged several would-be sacks. If it weren’t for his ability to extend the play, he probably would have suffered yet another injury in this game due to all the hits he would have taken.

Running Back

Jonathan Taylor:  20 Carries, 105 Yards, TD | 1 Target, 1 Reception, 12 Yards 

After missing last week due to the ankle injury that he picked up in Week 4, Jonathan Taylor was back in action against the Texans, and he looked none the worse for wear. Taylor was as fast and elusive as ever, and he proved it on his first touch of the game, taking a screen pass from behind the LOS for a 12-yard gain. Taylor caught the ball and immediately made an incoming defender miss with a quick jump cut and then made another defender in the second level miss on another quick move. His ability to make guys miss in the open field is elite. Unfortunately for Taylor, after that play, the Colts called three consecutive passing plays, which all fell incomplete, and that was pretty much the only thing stopping JT from having a monster game today: his own offense. The Colts went for the home run way too often and waited too long to let Taylor carry the offense. In the second half, Indianapolis started making it a priority to feed Taylor the ball, and as a result, their offense was effective and put them in a position to score more frequently. When the Colts weren’t shooting themselves in the foot with poor play-calling and poor QB play, Taylor was feasting, averaging over 5 YPC and gaining chunk plays. Taylor had six carries go for 5+ yards, an impressive number considering Taylor’s 20 total rush attempts. Taylor had 48 of the Colts’ 112 total yards at halftime, and he came out of the half carrying even harder, racking up gains of 13, 13, and 28 in the third quarter alone. Taylor was the beneficiary of Josh Downs being called down at the 1-yard line as the Colts gave him the goal-to-go carry, and he converted nicely for the touchdown. When the Colts gave him the ball, he produced, and they benefitted from him touching the ball as they scored on consecutive possessions in the third quarter, where Taylor was much more involved.

Missed Opportunities

• This game is not the first time that I have watched the Colts offense and thought, “Why isn’t Jonathan Taylor way more involved in the passing game?” I don’t understand it for the life of me. He is a capable pass catcher, and their most dangerous runner, and short gains to Taylor could give Richardson some more confidence and help the offense maintain rhythm.
• Had a 12-yard run called back due to offensive holding.

Trey Sermon:  1 Target, 1 Reception, 14 Yards

After helping carry the load last week with Jonathan Taylor inactive, Trey Sermon took a major backseat in this game as he registered only one catch on one target. He didn’t receive a carry, as Taylor was the only RB on the Colts to receive a handoff against the Texans.

Tyler Goodson: 

A week after leading the Colts in carries, Tyler Goodson didn’t even show up in the box score in Week 8 against the Texans. His most notable play of the game came when he dropped a potential touchdown pass. Anthony Richardson delivered one of his best balls on the day that hit a running Goodson right in his hands, but Goodson couldn’t come down with it. It was a really bad drop because the ball was placed perfectly, but the Colts didn’t suffer too much for it, as they scored a TD a few plays later.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Josh Downs:  9 Targets, 4 Receptions, 109 yards, TD

Josh Downs had an eventful day, to say the least. He led the Colts in targets with nine while the next highest targeted player (Michael Pittman) only had six and led the team in yards as well with 109 on the day. The vast majority of his yardage came via a busted-coverage long catch-and-run TD that went for 69 yards. Downs found himself with no absolutely no one around him, and Richardson was able to find him, setting up Downs to sprint into the end zone untouched. His day could have been a lot bigger, too, as he was initially ruled as coming down with a second TD on a spectacular leaping grab, but the play was reviewed, and Downs was ultimately ruled down at the 1-yard line. While there is disappointment that he didn’t score, it is highly encouraging that Downs made the play at all, as he did a great job to high-point the ball and falling backward, securing the ball in the process. While most of his targets had a high degree of difficulty, Downs could have had a bigger game if Richardson was a little more accurate on the day. Downs is separating himself as perhaps the go-to option for whoever is playing QB for this offense. While Pittman is technically the WR1, Downs has been making big plays for a while now. Worth noting that Downs snagged four receptions on the day while every other Colts receiver was limited to one.

Michael Pittman Jr.:  6 Targets, 1 Reception, 16 Yards

Michael Pittman Jr. saw the first target of the game, a nicely placed pass that he pretty much secured in his hands, only for the defender to punch it out right as he was pulling it into his body. Maybe some other receivers would make that catch, but the defensive play was very well-timed and executed. Pittman will be upset he didn’t catch it, but the defender absolutely made a play. Pittman was targeted six times, second-most on the team, but was only able to record one catch for 16 yards. Richardson and Pittman can’t seem to reliably get on the same page so far this season with real consistency. This can be chalked up to AR’s accuracy problems and his lack of availability as Pittman, the Colts’ supposed WR1, hasn’t had time + reps to build the proper chemistry with Richardson.

Missed Opportunities

• Had his man beat down the sideline with 11 minutes left in the 4Q, but Richardson couldn’t quite locate him, underthrowing the ball and placing it too close to the sideline.

Alec Pierce:  4 Targets, 1 Reception, 11 Yards

The most noteworthy play of Alec Pierce’s day is from a play that never officially happened. Pierce had a touchdown catch called back by a highly questionable offensive pass interference call. The same call could have been made on Tank Dell‘s TD catch but was only called on Pierce’s. Pierce easily could have had a touchdown to his name, but it was wiped, and he finished with only one reception on four targets for 11 yards. Pierce, a deep ball specialist, relies on Richardson to deliver a highly accurate ball, an inconsistent proposition at best.

Adonai Mitchell:  4 Targets, 1 Reception, 9 Yards

Rookie WR Adonai Mitchell couldn’t come down with the catch on perhaps Richardson’s best throw of the day. On 3rd & 10 on the Colts’ opening drive, Richardson unleashed a deep ball to the rookie that hit him right in the hands on the end zone sideline, but Mitchell just couldn’t get his second foot in bounds for the score. The ball was an 11/10… placed only where Mitchell could get it, and Richardson released it before the rookie had even turned around. The throw was immaculate, and Mitchell just bobbled it ever so slightly before securing it, perhaps leading to the second foot not being dragged in bounds. Other than that, Mitchell’s day was uneventful as he could only connect with Richardson once for a 9-yard gain.

Houston Texans

Quarterback

CJ Stroud:  25/37, 285 Yards, TD 

C.J. Stroud didn’t have his most excellent performance today. His numbers were solid, and he was mostly accurate, but there were a few throws in the first half that were off by Stroud’s standards. He was lucky not to be picked off on the Texans’ first drive. On 1st & 10 from the Indy 22, Stroud threw a ball right in the path of a Colts’ linebacker. The ball hit the LB in the hand and deflected near another Colts defender. A defender with better hands might have picked it off, or it could have easily been intercepted off the tip drill deflection. He also missed Stefon Diggs on an easy crossing route that should have been an easy 8-10 yard gain at least and, very possibly, more. If Stroud placed the ball just ahead of Diggs so he could have caught it in full stride, he could have turned it into a big play. Instead, the defender was able to get a hand in there, and the Texans had to settle for an opening drive FG instead of getting into the red zone. Other than some early misfires, Stroud was solid, if not unspectacular. Stroud made a ridiculous play with 14 minutes to go in the 4Q to break the pocket and escape pressure (yet again), scrambling to his right and buying just enough time to find John Metchie in stride. The defense was breathing down his neck, and Metchie had a defender close, so the ball had to be delivered perfectly, and it was. Zipped right in there, perfectly located for a big gain to put the Texans in field goal range. Stroud’s only TD pass of the day was a thing of beauty as Stroud placed the ball in the back of the endzone where only Tank Dell could make a play on it, and he did. Dell high-pointed the ball and did a great job coming down in bounds, but the throw by Stroud was sublime. Stroud does a good job of spreading the ball around, hitting whoever is open on a given play. Down Nico Collins, down Stefon Diggs after the 3Q injury, Stroud just keeps going, connecting with whoever he has available. Stroud is also clearly not afraid of taking a big hit if it means he can step up and deliver an accurate pass. He took a big hit late in the 3Q after he got the ball out just in time. There were several big hits that Stroud took in this game as he was under an insane amount of pressure from the Colts pass rush, who benefitted tremendously from having DeForest Buckner back. Between the worst offensive line performance of the season and losing his WR1 in Diggs, Stroud did an excellent job keeping the ship afloat.

Missed Opportunities

• Had Dalton Schultz wide open near the sideline for an easy pickup and first down if Stroud could have delivered the ball accurately… Stroud surprisingly missed Schultz, misfiring toward the sideline, and the Texans had to punt instead of picking up the first down. The pocket was clean, and the read was there, Stroud just missed his guy.

Running Back

Joe Mixon:  25 Carries, 102 Yards, TD | 6 Targets, 4 Receptions, 32 Yards

Much like his RB counterpart on the Colts, Joe Mixon has a total monopoly on his backfield when healthy, and today was no different. Mixon had 31 opportunities (rushes + targets) compared to the rest of the Texans’ RB’s combined total of three. He is just a true workhorse RB. Great hands as a receiver, is a tough runner, and elusive. He is very shifty in the backfield and does a great job of making first defenders miss or fighting to gain yards after initial contact. Mixon received two targets in the passing game on the Texans’ opening drive of the game, actually dropping the first that came his way. Stroud put it on him, and he just flat-out dropped it with no one on him. Mixon made up for it on the very next play, though, when he caught a pass behind the LOS and shook the first defender and made a 9-yard gain out of nothing. Mixon saw 25 carries, and he was bruising on the day, picking up positive yardage with regularity. Even if he didn’t have many explosive plays on the ground, he was consistently churning out positive plays. His TD run in the early 2nd quarter was super impressive and one of the RB highlights of the week. He took the handoff, made the first incoming defender miss with an excellent quick juke, and changed direction again, absorbing heavy contact and spinning his way out of it it and into the endzone. On the run, Mixon showed off his (not often talked about) elusiveness, decisive + good instincts, and power to keep chugging through contact. Mixon displayed his sure hands for an RB and tied for the 2nd-most targets on the team with Dalton Schultz. He only trailed Stefon Diggs (9) for most targets on the day, coming down with four receptions on six targets. On his dump-offs, he had so much success due to his ability to make moves out in the open field. He’s also not afraid of contact, even lowering his shoulder and seeking it out if that means extra yards. Watching him operate in OC Bobby Slowik’s offense made me feel frustrated for Colts’ RB Jonathan Taylor and the way he could be used over there. In the four full games that Mixon has played with the Texans, he is averaging 141 yards and 1.5 TD’s. He has the pass-catching duties on lock as well as the goal-line opportunities, which he is doing an amazing job converting on, with today being no different. Today was just another performance showing why the Texans splurged in the offseason to acquire him, as he’s proving to be one of the best offensive acquisitions of the year.

Missed Opportunities

• One of the only Mixon mishaps of the game (and an almost disastrous game-changing mistake) came with 3 minutes left in the game, with the Texans up 23-20. Stroud pitched it to Mixon, but he mishandled the pitch, and the defense met him behind the LOS immediately…resulting in an awful lost fumble. It wasn’t entirely Mixon’s fault, as the play collapsed from the jump, but he did his part in failing to secure the ball… The ball was nearly returned for an 80+ yard scoop & score, but the defender was luckily (for Mixon) ruled down by contact.

Dare Ogunbowale:  1 Carry, 4 Yards | 1 Target 

Ogunbowale received the first carry of the game after Joe Mixon received two targets on consecutive plays on the Texans’ first drive of the game. He wasn’t heard from the rest of the game, as he didn’t receive another carry but was targeted once for an incomplete.

Dameon Pierce:  1 Carry, 4 Yards

Dameon Pierce saw one carry and was on punt + kick return duties all game. That’s pretty much all you need to know about his fantasy value and production at this point. He did return the opening kickoff to almost midfield. Received a nice block and took off down the sideline for a 40+ yard return.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Stefon Diggs:  9 Targets, 5 Receptions, 81 Yards | 1 Carry, -4 Yards 

Stefon Diggs came into this game as CJ Stroud’s WR1 due to the injury of Nico Collins. While the Texans didn’t bring in Diggs to play second fiddle to anyone, this was especially evident in this game before he went down with a non-contact injury to his right ankle. Before the unfortunate injury, Diggs caught five balls for 81 yards on nine targets. Diggs was targeted twice on the Texans’ opening drive, coming down with a 16-yard catch, and that set the tone for his level of involvement in this game. Diggs was doing a good job creating separation at the LOS and beyond. He was often a step or two ahead of the man guarding him or finding soft spots in the Colts zone. He was targeted seven times in the first half, and his usage was trending way upward in the absence of Collins. Diggs suffered a non-contact injury to his right knee with under two minutes left in the third quarter. It happened when he pushed off at the top of his route and started hobbling around, gingerly going down. He didn’t return, and there is no word yet as to how bad it is. However, non-contact injuries are always scary.

Missed Opportunities

• Stroud was late on a 2nd & 10 throw to Diggs that should have been an easy 8-10 yards and possibly more. If Stroud threw it ahead of Diggs, he could have caught it in stride and made a big play…instead, it was a 3rd & 10, which they couldn’t convert, settling for a FG.

Tank Dell:  4 Targets, 4 Receptions, 35 Yards, TD

Tank Dell opened the season as the Texans’ WR3 on the depth chart. Coming into this game, he was the #2 due to Nico Collins being placed on IR a couple of weeks ago, and now, after this week, he will leave the game as the Texans WR1 due to the injury to Stefon Diggs. Dell’s final stats were a disappointment, given the injuries to Collins and Diggs, but he did come down with Stroud’s only touchdown pass of the game. Dell wasn’t able to pad his stats even after Diggs left the game, as the offense as a whole suffered without their #1 and #2 receivers. It doesn’t help that Stroud spreads the ball around to nine different receivers and, historically speaking, doesn’t lock on to any one target in favor of finding whoever is open on a given play. After last week’s 4 target / 0 reception dud, fantasy owners were right to be concerned with Dell’s lack of production in the lack of Nico Collins’ presence, as Dell failed to stand out in this game as well. If it wasn’t for his touchdown, we would be talking about Dell’s severe lack of production. The argument can be made that he still might not be 100% after recovering from a broken leg late last year as well as a gunshot wound this offseason, but Dell will have plenty of opportunities to soak up targets in the coming games. His bringing down all four targets is a good sign for his sticky hands, but the fact that he only drew four targets speaks to the amount of separation he’s been getting recently (which isn’t as good as it was last year). The touchdown itself was a great play from both Stroud and Dell as the second-year QB put the ball where only Tank could have made a play on it, and make a play on it, he did. Dell high-pointed the ball perfectly and came down with it in the back of the end zone with both feet in bounds. That was an excellent throw from Stroud, and great hands and awareness from Dell to finish the route and come down with the ball. The route Dell ran was solid but didn’t create much separation. The throw and catch were just so good that it didn’t matter much.

Dalton Schultz:  6 Targets, 4 Receptions, 52 Yards

Dalton Schultz received six targets, the second-most on the team, tied with Joe Mixon. Schultz was second on the team in all receiving categories. He has stepped up his average production since the Texans lost Nico Collins. In this game, he caught a season-high four passes and a season-high 52 yards. These are not eye-popping numbers by any means, but his emergence does bring a valuable safety-net aspect to Stroud’s offense that he lacks without Collins and potentially Diggs moving forward. He did a great job to work himself open on the 16-yard gain on the last play of the first quarter. Schultz bumped a pass rusher on the edge and then bounced off an LB, spinning off him and heading upfield just when CJ Stroud needed an outlet the most from a collapsing pocket. Stroud still took a hit, but it was smaller than it could have been, and it got them a first down. Schultz’s toughness and physicality made that play happen instead of a Stroud sack or incompletion. The kind of play that they will watch in the film room and applaud the TE for making.

John Metchie:  4 Targets, 3 Receptions, 29 Yards

An oft-overlooked part of the offense, John Metchie saw more opportunities with all the Texans’ injuries at WR and took advantage of them, recording season-highs across the board in all receiving stats. He also made a great catch with 14 minutes left in the fourth quarter for a gain of 28 yards when the Texans needed it the most. Probably one of the biggest catches of his young career thus far. Based on his usage today, Metchie will most likely become a bigger part of the offense moving forward, at least as long as Stefon Diggs is out (if at all).

Xavier Hutchinson:  1 Target, 1 Reception, 19 Yards