Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Final Score: Buccaneers 23, Saints 3
Writer: Jason Wolf
Spencer Rattler was completely rattled, facing the pressure of getting the offense going on a day when the game script was negative and the run game had no traction. The Saints had multiple defensive TDs taken off the board after review, but still managed to nab a defensive score despite the referees’ best attempts to deny them. Both defenses stood out in this one as the offenses were muted all game, and both quarterbacks did not look their best (though when has Rattler ever looked his “best?”). In what was one of only two games to go under their projected point total, this was by far the ugliest game of the Sunday slate, with only one offensive touchdown to show for both teams’ efforts. Ultimately, the Bucs’ defense was suffocating, and the Saints had no answers for Vita Vea and the Tampa Bay defense.
Two Up
- Cade Otton – With Mike Evans out and Baker Mayfield looking not himself, Cade Otton has been a beneficiary of the circumstances, seeing a combined 14 targets over the past two games, the most of any two-game stretch this year. If Mayfield’s touch with the intermediate-deep ball doesn’t return, I would expect Otton to keep seeing increased opportunities in the passing game.
- Tez Johnson – Seeing the second-most targets on the team for the second consecutive week, Tez Johnson figures to be the main beneficiary of Evans’ extended absence. The rookie is showing a promising rapport with Mayfield in short order, leading the team in receiving on the day and coming down with an efficient five receptions on six targets.
Two Down
- Baker Mayfield – Losing Evans might be a bigger deal than we thought. Between Baker’s goal-line fades to non-Evans receivers and looking less mobile than he has in years, something is not currently quite right with Mayfield. Two games in a row without a productive scramble and uncharacteristic inefficiency in the same time frame have me wondering just how bad his oblique injury really is. The BYE could not come at a more perfect time for the Bucs, as the offense is desperately missing the likes of Evans and Bucky Irving, while Baker can use the week off to get right physically.
- Alvin Kamara – Once again, I am writing about the Saints’ inability (or refusal) to get their best offensive player the ball enough and in the right situations. Yes, the game script wasn’t ideal for Kamara to have a big day on the ground, but even when it was only 7-0, Kamara became an afterthought all too easily. As a true three-down back, Kamara should always be able to help the offense, but the OC does not seem interested in taking advantage of Kamara’s skill set. With Kendre Miller injured, it seems less and less likely that Kamara will be traded, which is an unfortunate turn of events for Kamara’s production and his fantasy managers as well.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield: 15/24, 152 Yards, 1 Fumble (Lost)
Baker’s fumble was a completely avoidable mistake that we haven’t seen Mayfield make many of this season. With pressure arriving quickly, Baker kept dropping back, holding onto the ball, waiting for something to open up downfield. Usually, he is much quicker to try to make something happen with his feet or try to get outside the tackle box to just throw it away. He has excelled at using his feet to keep plays going and to pick up yardage, both small and chunk gains. However, we saw literally none of that today as Mayfield didn’t run for a single rushing yard, only the second time that has happened this season, with the first being last week’s Lions game, where he started to not look like himself, and that carried over into this week. Mayfield is perhaps missing Mike Evans just a little bit. He juuust overthrew Egbuka for a big gain; a theme on the day as Mayfield struggled to find the connection with his star WR. While he was far from perfect on the day, Baker also didn’t get the most help from his receivers, as they had several drops on the day. While his turnover could have easily been avoided, his completion percentage could have been a bit better if his pass catchers hadn’t dropped multiple passes. The playcalling was super conservative on the day; most likely a result of the injuries to the Bucs’ skill players, including the oblique injury Mayfield is nursing, and the Bucs being comfortably ahead for the entire contest.
Running Back
Rachaad White: 13 Carries, 35 Yards | 2 Targets, 2 Receptions, 26 Yards
Rachaad White got first crack at RB1 duties as he saw three consecutive touches on the Buccaneers’ opening drive, rushing for 14 yards on his first three carries. He then got the first two touches on their next drive, getting five touches in total before his backfield mate Sean Tucker touched the ball. While neither White nor Tucker made any big splash plays or popped off the screen, it was White who had some level of involvement in the passing game, making his opportunities the more valuable of the two. On Tampa Bay’s 18-play, 10-minute drive in the late 1st-mid 2nd quarter, the Bucs got down to the goal line and gave White three opportunities to punch in the goal-line TD, but he failed to convert on three consecutive chances. They then gave Sean Tucker a chance on 4th & goal from the one, but he was unable to convert as well, resulting in a Buccaneers turnover on downs. Though White was not able to get into the end zone, it was telling that they gave him three opportunities to do so before they gave Tucker a chance. Neither RB popped on tape, but it was White who looked like more of the plodder between the two, averaging sub-3.0 YPC with a long run of 9 yards compared to Tucker’s long run of 15.
Sean Tucker: 12 Carries, 42 Yards, TD, Fumble (Recovered)
It’s not saying much, but Sean Tucker looked the more “explosive” of the two Tampa Bay RBs on the day. It’s kinda like saying he was the fastest snail in the snail race, though, as he averaged only 3.5 YPC, and if you take away his long run of 15 yards, he finished with 27 yards on his other 11 carries, good for 2.5 YPC. Coming into the game, he was clearly second fiddle to White, but as the game went on and White’s efficiency dwindled, Tucker started to get more and more carries. After White failed to convert on three consecutive goal-line power runs up the middle, they gave the ball to Tucker, who also couldn’t convert on the goal-line opportunity. However, Tucker got his chance later in the game when he successfully punched in a short TD. Tucker had no involvement in the passing game, as he was used mostly as a blocker on third down, compared to White, who ran more routes out of the backfield and received two targets in the passing game. Moving forward after the Bucs’ bye, I would expect that Tampa Bay is praying that Bucky Irving will return healthy, because they are clearly missing his explosiveness and playmaking out of the backfield. White and Tucker will most likely split RB2 duties behind Irving, making neither useful for fantasy football purposes.
Josh Williams: 4 Carries, 11 Yards
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Emeka Egbuka: 9 Targets, 3 Receptions, 35 Yards
Between Baker Mayfield clearly playing hobbled and unable to take advantage of the threat of Egbuka’s downfield playmaking ability and Egbuka dropping a pass, it was an underwhelming day for the star rookie WR. He unfortunately has failed to hit similar highs from earlier in the season since returning from his hamstring injury a few weeks ago. It was a day to forget as he dropped the only potential he had for a big play, as he was wide open for a touchdown, but couldn’t secure the ball, which was pretty catchable. His chemistry with Mayfield hasn’t looked nearly as good as it was in the earlier parts of the year, due to a combination of factors, most presently the injuries to his hamstring and Baker’s oblique. Egbuka saw a team-leading nine targets on the day, which isn’t a surprise; however, he was only able to bring in three receptions for 35 yards, a terribly inefficient 33% catch rate, continuing the downward trend, giving Egbuka 25 targets, 9 receptions, and 117 yards over his last three games. Not great, Bob. The sheer volume is going to be there moving forward, but there is fair reason to be concerned unless Baker and the Bucs come out of their bye looking healthier.
Tez Johnson: 6 Targets, 5 Receptions, 43 Yards
Tez “MVP” Johnson is quickly ascending atop the Bucs’ WR corps. He finished second on the team in targets with six (behind Egbuka’s nine), but he was much more efficient with his targets as he secured five of six targets for 43 yards. He didn’t make any big splash plays, but he was impressive nonetheless on a day where offensive production was hard to come by. The most impressive thing for me about Johnson’s game, other than his sure hands, is how tough he is. When you watch him with the ball in his hands, he looks dynamic and athletic, but he does not look big. His frame is small compared to other WRs his height and it shows. However, every time he takes a big hit where you think he might be slow to get up or get the wind knocked out of him, he just pops right back up. He’s not afraid to work in the middle of the field or take a hit, as he does not drop passes due to defenders closing in on him like some WRs are prone to doing. The only negative I can say about Johnson’s day is that he, too, was unable to secure a very catchable pass when he was wide open, which was a theme of the day for the Bucs’ pass catchers but I give him a pass because he made multiple impressive catches where he took big hits in the process but secured them confidently and smoothly.
Cade Otton: 5 Targets, 4 Receptions, 40 Yards
Cade Otton was this close to joining the National Tight End Day touchdown party when he caught a short pass and took it 20+ yards to the house in what was originally ruled a touchdown, but upon review, it was clear that his knee came down one yard short of the end zone. Otton displayed sure hands per usual and some decent ability after the catch as well. His impact in the first half was limited as he secured two of three targets for only eight yards. He typically operates in the short passing game, and today was no different as his aDOT was ~five yards. Otton oftentimes disappears in this offense when all the weapons are healthy because there are so many options at Mayfield’s disposal; however, when injuries start piling up, Otton is there as a sure-handed target in the short-intermediate passing game.
Sterling Shepard: 2 Targets, 1 Reception, 8 Yards
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
Spencer Rattler: 15/21, 136 Yards, INT | Fumble (Lost)
Spencer Rattler‘s final stat line surely leaves a lot to be desired in terms of passing numbers, with the QB averaging sub-7.0 YPA to go with two turnovers and no touchdowns. He ended up being benched for the turnovers, as they have been something he has been struggling with since the beginning of the year. His interception was inexcusable as it directly led to a Buccaneers score as TB’s Anthony Nelson barely had to move or jump to bat the ball to himself and secure it on his way to the easy pick 6. Rattler threw the ball from his own 1-yard line with Nelson closing in on him, and Rattler’s pass was so low that Nelson was easily able to come down with it. To make matters worse (and more embarrassing), Rattler was the only thing standing between Nelson and the end zone, so of course Nelson stiff-armed Rattler to the turf on his way to the easiest score of his career. The decision and pass were both terrible, and Rattler was punished with his own Chandler Jones stiff-arm to Mac Jones‘ face moment. Outside of the turnovers and that horrendous interception, Rattler actually played better than he had last week. He improved on his accuracy, as he actually completed every throw that he attempted that went for 10 air yards or less. His only incompletions came on his interception and targets that traveled more than 20 yards down the field. He did connect on one of his attempts that went for 20+ yards, but his accuracy in the intermediate-deep game leaves a lot to be desired. Despite the subpar box score stats, Rattler surprisingly played a decent game given that the Bucs’ pass rush was in his face all day, and the run game was producing absolutely nothing. Rattler’s decision making (outside of his horrific INT) was decent, and he finished with a +2.3% CPOE (completion percentage over expectation). The problem with Rattler has consistently been turnovers, and today was no different, with the interception giving him six turnovers in his last six quarters, and that is what led to his benching in favor of rookie Tyler Shough. Shough did not manage to do any better, but he did do a better job of protecting the ball. I don’t think Rattler will be benched for Shough in their next game, but it was important to send the message to Rattler to stop turning the ball over and prioritize ball protection a lot more.
Tyler Shough: 17/30, 128 Yards, INT
Tyler Shough came in for Rattler, who has been battling the turnover demon for weeks now, as he was responsible for six turnovers in his last three halves of football. Though Shough did not have any plays nearly as bad as Rattler’s pick-six, I can safely say that Shough did not outplay Rattler. Rattler was more accurate with the ball and went through his progressions and reads visibly faster. Shough was locking onto his primary read far too often, and it led to a lot more incompletions and a flustered Shough on about half of his dropbacks as the Saints’ offensive line was struggling to keep up all day. Shough’s interception wasn’t his fault as Tampa Bay’s DB ripped the ball out of his receiver Chris Olave‘s hands after Shough delivered it to him right in his basket. Goes down in the box score as an INT all the same, but Shough at least avoided directly causing any turnovers himself. Shough came in the game and hit on his first pass of the day, a decently accurate out route toward the sideline, which was easily caught. Shough’s biggest mistake of the day came with 7 minutes left in the game when Rashid Shaheed beat his man deep and was wide open for the potential TD, but Shough completely overthrew Shaheed, who again was wide open. While the Bucs were blitzing on the play, Shough had enough time in the pocket to step up and deliver the ball cleanly. Expectations for Shough are low, of course, but that is a throw that he has to make if he wants to compete for a starting QB job in the NFL, and you might expect him to be able to make such a throw, considering that he had plenty of reps in college. After all, this rookie QB is older than Trevor Lawrence, who was drafted almost five years ago. Had he hit Shaheed for the TD or displayed more accuracy + poise under duress, I would say there is a conversation to be had about who should start their next game, but I don’t think Shough did enough to warrant that conversation just yet.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara: 6 Carries, 21 Yards | 2 Targets, 2 Receptions, 24 Yards
Another Saints game that I painfully watched, another game where I am left utterly dumbstruck about Kamara’s usage out of the backfield. New Orleans is simply not doing enough to get their best skill player the ball with opportunities to succeed. You can blame the game script as negative all day with no room to get him going. You can point to the offensive line failing to generate push with any regularity against the nasty Bucs front seven, but the fact is that the Saints are regularly failing to get Kamara involved in any meaningful manner. Even when the game was only 7-0, it felt like the Saints abandoned the run game completely. There was once a time when Kamara operated as a CMC-type back, receiving many targets out of the backfield every game, and I acknowledge that Kamara isn’t as young and spry as he once was, but it doesn’t change the fact that they need to do a better job of getting the ball to Kamara with open space in front of him. Kellen Moore was once viewed as an innovative offensive mind who maximizes the talents of his players, but there has been a major lack of creativity in the New Orleans offense for a couple of seasons now. The Saints would do well to trade Kamara to a team that could better use hi,m as well as give him a shot at some playoff success, but that seems less likely now with Kendre Miller‘s injury.
Devin Neal: 3 Targets, 3 Receptions, 11 Yards
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Chris Olave: 12 Targets, 8 Receptions, 63 Yards
Chris Olave was peppered with targets from beginning to end in this one. With the Saints playing from behind essentially all game and the Saints’ QBs operating as Checkdown Charlies, Olave saw 12 targets on the day. This was Olave’s sixth game of the season with 10+ targets, and he has yet to have a 100-yard receiving game. That says everything you need to know about Olave’s situation in New Orleans, as he is clearly the go-to guy when the chains need moving or the QB needs an outlet to get rid of the ball. Olave’s plethora of targets unfortunately didn’t amount to much in this one, as he was only able to come down with eight receptions on his 12 targets, good for 63 yards and a 5.25 YPA when targeted. This has been the norm for Olave this season: coming into this game, he was 2nd in the league in targets (68), but only 47 were catchable targets. In what was a game to forget for the Saints and for Olave, his most impactful play in this game was when he was targeted on rookie QB Tyler Shough‘s first career interception. In an unfortunate play for Shough’s box score numbers, Shough hit Olave with a perfect ball for a short complete pass, but Bucs’ CB Antoine Winfield straight up ripped the ball from Olave’s hands, causing the interception. What should have gone down as a good completed pass ends up being Shough’s INT and will surely be pointed to as evidence as to why Shough is not ready to play as a starting NFL QB, all because Olave didn’t secure the ball. Olave isn’t necessarily a short game merchant, but the lack of protection from the Saints’ offensive line means that he is making a living just a few yards down the field, wasting a good chunk of his talents on this ill-equipped Saints team.
Rashid Shaheed: 12 Targets, 9 Receptions, 75 Yards, Fumble (Lost)
Rashid Shaheed finished the day with a co-team high 12 targets, and he was more efficient on his looks when compared with his teammate, Chris Olave. It’s not surprising that his targets lead to more yards, considering that he is the team’s main deep threat, but it is somewhat surprising to see the higher catch rate than Olave, who has been operating almost solely as a possession receiver for a while now due to the constraints of the New Orleans offense. Shaheed’s day could have been a lot bigger if Shough hadn’t missed him on what would have been a wide open touchdown. As we have come quite used to seeing, Shaheed’s elite speed saw him beat his man down the sideline and get wide open over the top of the defense for what should have been an easy long-yardage touchdown. However, as we have also become used to seeing, the Saints QB was not able to capitalize on Shaheed’s speed and big play ability, thus is the reason why Shaheed’s name keeps popping up in trade rumors as a potential target for Buffalo with Josh Allen, who would be more than capable of taking advantage of Shaheed’s elite straight line speed. Other than leading the team in targets and receiving yards, it was kind of a rough day for Shaheed as he was this close to having two fumbles when on one of his targets, he caught the ball, attempted to turn up the field, but simultaneously had the ball punched out as he was making his move. Initially, the call was a catch + fumble, but the play was overturned upon review. Shaheed clearly has to work on ball control moving forward, as multiple fumbles from a skill position player is a disaster. Players who are less important to their teams are benched and sometimes cut for mistakes like that.
Juwan Johnson: 8 Targets, 5 Receptions, 53 Yards
Ever the consistent if not unspectacular box office receiving option, Juwan Johnson came through again with a productive outing, accounting for 20+% of the Saints’ receiving production. Seemingly every week, Johnson makes a play with the ball in his hands where you go “ooh, maybe the Saints have something here with Johnson…maybe that contract they gave him was justified after all…” And then, every week, he drops an absolute softball that hits him directly in the hands, and this week was no different. He is crazy athletic and looks great with the ball in his hands, but getting him to reliably catch balls in space is an issue week in and week out. Johnson was mostly invisible for the vast majority of the game, but with the game well in hand and the Saints in garbage time, Juwan caught three passes for 35 yards, making up the bulk of his production when it mattered the least. Johnson makes for a fine fantasy option as he is playing on a team that is forced to throw a lot, but if I were a Saints fan, I would be unhappy with him as my team’s main receiving threat at TE, and I would certainly be unhappy with the 3 year/$30 million contract the Saints front office rewarded him with.
Brandin Cooks: 4 Targets, 3 Receptions, 22 Yards
Every week, I am still surprised that Brandin Cooks is still playing in the NFL. That’s not a diss on him or anything of the sort; it just feels like he’s been playing for over 15 years. He was drafted 11 years ago, but who’s counting?
Taysom Hill: 2 Carries, 6 Yards | 1 Target, 1 Reception, 6 Yards