Chargers @ Browns
Final Score: Chargers 27 – Browns 10
Writer: Jesse Maida
The Browns’ defense pressured Justin Herbert on nearly 70% of his 1st half dropbacks, sacking him six times, but still trailed by 17 points after 30 minutes. The Chargers offense was below average for most of the game but capitalized on three explosive plays, including two long touchdown passes on blown coverages, which was enough to cruise to a comfortable victory. Cleveland had some opportunities to attempt a comeback, but Lieutenant LASIK, Jameis Winston, gave us another example of why he’s not an NFL starter.
Three Up
- Cedric Tillman – Getting fantasy WR1 usage. Waiver pick up of the year? The schedule gets tougher, but there is a ton of passing volume with Winston.
- J.K. Dobbins – Totaled 100+ yards and two TDs. Dobbins continues to dominate work on a run-first team with a strong defense.
- Quentin Johnston – Best game of his career. QJ has scored a TD in four of his last five healthy games. FLEX-worthy option during the upcoming heavy bye weeks.
Two Down
- Jameis Winston – The magic wore off. With a brutal upcoming schedule after the bye, it’s impossible to trust Winston in your lineups as a streamer.
- Nick Chubb – 2.7 YPC since his return, non-existent in the passing game, with a brutal upcoming schedule. Sell after Week 11 if possible.
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback
Justin Herbert: 18/27, 282 Yards, 2 TD | Carries, 2 Yards
Justin Herbert was on fire in the first half, completing 14/16 passes for 250 yards and two touchdowns, achieving a perfect passer rating. Herbert completed 13-straight passes to end the half. What makes this 1st half-stat line even more impressive is the fact Herbert faced immense pressure while giving up six sacks. The second half was the complete opposite, only completing 4/11 passes for 32 yards while taking 0 sacks. Heading into the afternoon slate, Herbert is QB7 on the week, and it looks like he will finish as a back-end QB1 in back-to-back weeks. Herbert is averaging 33 pass attempts post-bye vs. 22 attempts in weeks 1-4, with back-to-back games with multiple passing TDs. This increased passing volume should put Herbert in play for a weekly QB stream, especially with a juicy upcoming schedule.
Notes
- Herbert’s two long TD throws both came on busted coverage on 3rd-and-long.
Running Back
J.K. Dobbins: 14 Carries, 85 Yards, 2 TD | 2 Targets, 2 Receptions, 20 Yards
J.K. Dobbins looks fully healthy, picking up multiple chunk runs, scoring two touchdowns, and was the entire Chargers’ offense in the 2nd half. After eight games, Dobbins is on pace for 1,300+ yards and 13 TDs. He continues to dominate snaps and usage on a team that loves to run the ball and typically has a favorable game flow due to their stingy defense. Dobbins has finished RB14 or better in PPR leagues in 62.5% of games this season, with multiple top-5 finishes, cementing himself as a back-end RB1 rest-of-season.
Kimani Vidal: 5 Carries, 7 Yards
Midway through the 2nd quarter, the Chargers rookie running back actually had three carries vs. only two for Dobbins. One of those carries was a powerful 7-yard run, but Kimani Vidal could not build off that momentum, finishing with seven yards on five carries. Vidal remains an intriguing handcuff who could have a large role if Dobbins were to get injured down the road.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Ladd McConkey: 7 Targets, 5 Receptions, 64 Yards
2nd-year WR Quentin Johnston had the big game, but rookie WR Ladd McConkey is still firmly Herbert’s WR1. Ladd made multiple big catches, operating in the middle of the field, including a 16-yard reception on the very first play of the game. He led all Chargers’ receivers in snaps (84%), targets (7), and receptions (5). Fantasy managers will view this as a letdown after the monster breakout performance in week 8, but with Herbert passing much more post-bye, McConkey should have some big games in the second half of the fantasy season.
Quentin Johnston: 5 Targets, 4 Receptions, 118 Yards, TD | 1 Carry, 2 Yards
After missing two games with an ankle injury, Quentin Johnston had the best game of his career. In the first half alone, QJ caught all four targets for 118 yards, including a 66-yard TD. This was the first 100-yard game of his career after failing to reach the century mark in his disappointing rookie campaign. The coaching staff looked to get Johnston involved early, handing him the ball on a jet sweep on the second play of the game. The entire Chargers’ passing offense was non-existent in the second half, with Herbert only attempting 11 passes, but Johnston almost picked up another 20+ yard gain on his lone target but couldn’t secure a ball that appeared to be thrown behind him. QJ may have been the butt of the joke entering the season, but he has shown a knack for the end zone, scoring four times in his last five healthy games. With 14 teams on bye in the next three weeks, you could do a lot worse than Johnston as a bye-week fill-in.
https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1853150999357333845
Josh Palmer: 4 Targets, 2 Receptions, 61 Yards, TD
Josh Palmer caught a 28-yard TD on 3rd-and-21 on a busted coverage to open the scoring. Entering the season, Palmer was discussed as the potential WR1 for the Chargers, but after this performance, he has two receptions or less in 5/7 games, with a season-high of four receptions. He is the WR3 on this team and not usable for fantasy football.
Will Dissly: 3 Targets, 2 Receptions, 9 Yards
After a combined 13 receptions and 122 yards in the last two games, Will Dissly was not a factor despite Herbert throwing for 282 yards. Dissly dominated TE snaps, but he’s hard to trust moving forward.
Browns
Quarterback
Jameis Winston: 26/46, 235 Yards, TD, 3 INT | 5 Carries, 27 Yards
In his second start of the season, Jameis Winston once again proved that the idea of Winston as an NFL starting QB is usually better than the reality. There were a ton of low-lights this week, including three INTs, one being in the end zone, but the Chargers defense could have easily had five or six. He was also sacked six times and missed numerous throws. After throwing for 334 yards and 3 TDs vs. the Ravens last week, earning offensive player of the week honors, Winston did not reach 100 yards passing until midway through the 3rd quarter and was worse than the box score indicates, padding his stats in garbage time to cut the lead to 27-10 after a Cedric Tillman TD reception. In his two starts, Winston is averaging 43.5 pass attempts, which should lead to fantasy points for the Browns’ pass catchers, but Winston is always at risk of giving a nightmare fantasy performance, which you usually can’t afford at the QB position.
https://twitter.com/FoootballDigest/status/1853155836605976893
https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1853164172705763757
Running Back
Nick Chubb: 15 Carries, 39 Yards | 1 Target, -4 Receiving Yards
For those stashing Nick Chubb on their IR all season, the payoff has not been worth it after three weeks. Chubb is averaging 2.7 YPC behind a poor offensive line and is basically a zero in the passing game, totaling two receptions for six yards on six targets since returning from injury. In weeks 12-15, Chubb faces PIT twice, @DEN, and vs. KC. I’m not sure how you can start Chubb with any sort of confidence in this four-week stretch, plus he is on bye next week. Fantasy managers should hope for a decent performance in Week 11 vs. NO, then sell.
Jerome Ford: 2 Carries, 5 Yards | 3 Targets, 1 Reception, 2 Yards
Jerome Ford has five total touches in these last two games, with D’onta Foreman being inactive this week. His ceiling would be a low-end RB2 handcuff if Chubb were to miss time, which is not something we should aim for at this time of the season. Fantasy managers should be chasing a higher upside at the end of their bench.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Cedric Tillman: 11 Targets, 6 Receptions, 75 Yards
Cedric Tillman delivered a WR1 performance for the third straight week. It took a garbage time score to get there, but his TD catch was absolutely incredible. With Winston passing 43 times a game, Tillman has a legitimate path to a fantasy WR1 role rest-of-season and may very well be the waiver pickup of the year. Tillman’s day could have been much bigger, with a 19-yard reception called back by an illegal motion penalty on Jerry Jeudy and a dropped TD pass on a Winston hospital ball, where he got absolutely rocked by Troy Dye. Since the Amari Cooper trade, Tillman is averaging 22.1 PPR PPG, which would rank as WR1 overall, nearly 1 PPG more than Nico Collins. As long as Winston continues to be the starter, Tillman should continue to score plenty of fantasy points, even during blowouts, where he could be a garbage-time all-star similar to Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson for the 2015 Jaguars.
https://twitter.com/Browns/status/1853180748146020799
Jerry Jeudy: 11 Targets, 7 Receptions, 73 Yards
Jerry Jeudy led all Browns WRs in snaps and receptions and tied Tillman for the team lead in targets. In his first year with the Browns, Jeudy has entered WR3 territory with Winston at QB, earning 19 targets and catching 12 balls for 152 yards over the past two weeks. Jeudy is allergic to the end zone, which hurts his fantasy ceiling, but he should be a volume-based WR3 in PPR leagues going forward.
Elijah Moore: 9 Tagets, 3 Receptions, 28 Yards
Like all other Browns’ pass catchers, Elijah Moore was heavily targeted, but he failed to make an impact with nine targets. Moore did have an opportunity for a huge 53-yard TD reception, but the pass was just out of his reach. Despite the lack of production against the Chargers, future opportunities for fantasy points should be there as all three of Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman, and Elijah Moore finished with 115+ air yards in Week 9. That’s 21 targets for Elijah Moore over the last two weeks, which is certainly enough volume for a PPR bye-week stream.
https://twitter.com/jagibbs_23/status/1853210201832169475
David Njoku: 7 Targets, 5 Receptions, 29 Yards
David Njoku’s five receptions gave him 317 for his career, which is the most by a Cleveland Brown since the team’s return in ‘99. That’s the only highlight for Njoku this week. His future fantasy outlook remains positive, with Winston passing 43 times a game. These targets have been consolidated among Njoku and the three wide receivers, with Njoku earning 20% of targets since the Amari Cooper trade.
https://twitter.com/dwainmcfarland/status/1853226938392842274