2021 Strength of Schedule Analysis For Every Team

We spend a lot of time analyzing the qualities of specific players in an attempt to project their fantasy football production. However, what about the players they’ll be facing. After all, football is a competition between two parties, right? If we are going to focus on matchups so much on a week-to-week basis–and use it as a way to explain a player’s performance–shouldn’t we take it into account in the draft process?

To be fair, it is unclear how much strength of schedule truly matters. Generally, the elite players produce, especially since overall touches are the significant catalyst of fantasy points. Meanwhile, our ability to predict how well each team will perform at a specific trait, such as run defense, is probably less than we’d hope so, especially with injuries factoring in.

Yet, that doesn’t mean we cannot try. Using previous research on what correlates with overall success–as well as the stability of specific statistics–I have projected each team’s strength of schedule, using projected PFF grades for the upcoming season. While there are general margins for error regarded with each team’s projection, this will help provide us with a general outlook of what each team will be going up against. So, which teams have the most optimal schedules for fantasy success? Let’s take a look!

*NOTE: Hardest Schedule Ranked 1st, Easiest Schedule Ranked 32nd

Arizona Cardinals

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
22	15	13	3

Overall, the Cardinals’ schedule is very manageable. They start the year with the Titans, Vikings, and Jaguars, and will face the Lions and Cowboys during the fantasy playoffs.
However, they also play in the NFC West, which means multiple matchups against the Rams and 49ers. Furthermore, the Seahawks are my top projected run defense for the 2021 season.
If you were thinking about rostering Arizona’s defense, hopefully, this makes you consider otherwise. Partially due to the division they play in, they won’t benefit from the soft schedule of opposing offenses that they were gifted with last year.

Atlanta Falcons

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
26	26	16	28

Time to go all-in on the Falcons? This certainly helps. It’s hard not to look at this and be intrigued about the fantasy outlooks for quarterback Matt Ryan and wide receiver Calvin Ridley this season.
Furthermore, could this lead to more touchdown opportunities for running back Mike Davis than we expected? Should the Falcons once again struggle in the red zone, kicker Younghoe Koo could also finish as one of the top players at his position.
With matchups against the Eagles, Giants, Washington, Panthers, and Jets in the first eight weeks of the season, the Falcons might be better defensively than you’d expect. While I wouldn’t count on them being a top-notch defense, an improved unit under new defensive coordinator Dean Pees could be an interesting weekly streaming option.
Unfortunately, Atlanta draws a matchup in Buffalo during Week 17, which isn’t ideal during championship week for multiple reasons, foremost of which are weather and a tough defense. If you roster their players during this time, you might be tempted to ride the hot hand after a Week 16 matchup against the Lions, but it may not end up being the optimal strategy.

Baltimore Ravens

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
6	3	19	15

We all want to see Lamar Jackson move the ball through the air more this season, but it will be difficult to do with this schedule. On the bright side, he should start off strong with the Raiders, Chiefs, and Lions, though the stretch run includes several strong defenses.
On the bright side, Baltimore looks well-positioned to remain a high-powered rushing offense. If that’s the case, Jackson should still be amongst the top scorers at his position, while JK Dobbins may once again have the rushing efficiency to overcome a limited overall amount of touches. That may also be needed if the weather becomes an issue with games in Chicago, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Cincinnati in the second half of the season.
Getting the Lions and Broncos in Week 3 and 4 gives the Ravens a chance to be the top fantasy defenses for a multi-week span. There are some difficult matchups (Chiefs, Browns x2, Packers) mixed in, though, so it may be a difficult defense to draft and hold this year.

Buffalo Bills

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
17	25	7	30

Congratulations on your $258 million contract extension Josh Allen! Your reward? A bottom-ten passing strength of schedule. In other words, invest in the Bills passing attack!
That should also mean touchdown opportunities for running back Zack Moss, who earned a majority of the team’s running back goal-line carries. For Devin Singletary, though, whose success is more predicated on overall rushing efficiency, the team’s difficult rushing schedule could be problematic. Matchups with the Steelers and Washington during the first three weeks are a tough draw.
The Colts, Saints, Patriots, and Bucs will be difficult to manage for Buffalo between Weeks 11-14. That being said, their offense should be prolific enough to handle it and there are plenty of softer matchups mixed into their schedule.
With such an easy schedule of opposing offenses, the Bills defense could legitimately finish as a top-five defense in fantasy football. Their division isn’t loaded with elite offenses, while the Steelers, Washington, Texans, and Panthers all are also favorable games for them. Playing on the east coast during the final four weeks of the season will also help them out.

Carolina Panthers

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
18	20	9	18

I know the quarterback situation isn’t ideal, but wide receiver DJ Moore has proven capable of overcoming that before, and a fourth-place schedule should help him produce strong numbers.
With the Jets, Texans, Cowboys, and Eagles in the first five weeks, along with the Vikings, Giants, Falcons, and Cardinals after, Carolina’s high points could come early in the year. With multiple matchups against the Bucs, in addition to the Bills and Saints, in the final weeks of the season, you might want to consider selling high on your Panther players. This would add more appeal to drafting them; you might be able to eventually flip them for players who could put you over the top in the playoffs.
You’re drafting Christian McCaffrey with the first overall pick anyways, so let’s not use any energy addressing that.

Chicago Bears

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
10	9	24	2

Sigh. While we’re looking for a time that Justin Fields will take over as the Bears’ quarterback, perhaps a four-game stretch between the Packers, Bucs, 49ers, and Steelers between Weeks 6-9 isn’t the optimal time. Rather, the Lions and Raiders in Weeks 4 and 5 would be better. After the bye week, though, the schedule becomes much easier.
Don’t be surprised if head coach Matt Nagy once again shifts towards a run-heavy offense this season. David Montgomery’s strong finish down the stretch was disregarded a bit due to a softer schedule, but he’ll benefit from a similar schedule in 2021.
The Bears were once a defensive juggernaut, but 2021 isn’t the year for them to get back to their old ways.

Cincinnati Bengals

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
4	12	10	9

Yikes. The Bengals might not win many games next year. On the bright side, that means more passing volume! There will be no greater joy to me than seeing Joe Burrow produce strong fantasy numbers simply based on garbage-time volume stats!
In all seriousness, you’re not drafting Bengals players for high-end efficiency, but for volume. Thus, I think a difficult schedule affects them less than others. Continue to feel comfortable buying into this offense if the respective stocks of their premium players continue to fall.

Cleveland Browns

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
3	5	32	24

So, this is very interesting. As we try to analyze how many pass attempts Baker Mayfield will have in 2021, this doesn’t help. On the other end of the spectrum, Nick Chubb is set to continue to be one of the most efficient runners in the NFL.
There is significant downside in playing in the same division as the Steelers and Ravens. The Raiders and Packers are great playoff matchups for Chubb, while he’ll also get the Chiefs and Texans to start.
Keep an eye on the weather (at Packers, at Steelers) affecting the Browns in the playoffs, in addition to playing their home games in Cleveland as well.

Dallas Cowboys

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
21	24	5	29

Everyone wants to invest in the Cowboys’ prolific offense, and this is another data point in their favor. Expect them to move the ball through the air at a very high level.
No, I wouldn’t be worried about their difficult run defense schedule. Dallas is projected to have the fourth-best rushing offense, so they’ll still move the ball on the ground. Plus, get ready for Ezekiel Elliot to have an extraordinary amount of touchdown opportunities with how productive the offense should be overall.
I’m not saying that you need to draft the Cowboys defense, because please don’t. Hey, playing in the NFC East gives them a nice slate of opposing offenses, though!

Denver Broncos

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
32	32	29	16

Man, could you imagine if Aaron Rodgers had actually gotten traded to the Broncos? Even without Rodgers, it’s great to see a pathway to success for receivers Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, in addition to tight end Noah Fant.
I will say that a lot of this would be helped out by Teddy Bridgewater starting at quarterback. Although he won’t throw the ball down the field with great frequency, he’s much more accurate than Drew Lock and thus would be better served as a catalyst against a very weak schedule.
Please, Javonte Williams, be the Broncos’ starting running back! In a division filled with poor run defenses and little resistance in his way, the North Carolina product could end up as this year’s most efficient rookie running back based on his skills and the schedule he’ll face.
This is definitely a defense to consider drafting. Denver opens up with the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets, giving you three straight weeks of them likely ranking amongst the top fantasy defenses.

Detroit Lions

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
1	1	3	6

The Lions don’t get to play themselves, and that’s a problem. In all seriousness, this is another reason to not expect any sort of offensive efficiency from them.
You were mainly targeting tight end TJ Hockenson and running back D’Andre Swift for the targets they’ll command, but I certainly would be cautious to draft any of the team’s receivers, in addition to quarterback Jared Goff.
They will play the Cardinals and Falcons in Weeks 15 and 16, which could help them in the fantasy playoffs. However, it’s reasonable to be constantly playing from behind. This certainly bodes well for Swift, even if he shares early-down duties with Jamaal Williams.

Green Bay Packers

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
8	14	12	8

With a first-place schedule, the Packers will face some resistance as they try to repeat as the league’s most efficient offense. That being said, it isn’t something to be concerned about.
Since Green Bay’s schedule of opposing offenses isn’t as soft as last year, it could mean more pass attempts for Aaron Rodgers this year. That wouldn’t be unreasonable, considering they ranked in the bottom ten of pass attempts in 2020.
If so, this isn’t great news for running back Aaron Jones; I believe that there will be less touchdown upside overall for the team’s core players this year. Be careful buying most Packers at their highest point, especially with their respective ADPs having been boosted by Rodgers officially returning for this season.

Houston Texans

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
25	18	20	13

As opposed to the Lions, the Texans have a much more favorable schedule. To be fair, though, who outside of maybe receiver Brandin Cooks are you planning to draft from this team? Offensive success is extremely unlikely to take place in Houston in 2021.

Indianapolis Colts

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
29	29	31	5

This strength of schedule would indicate that the Colts would likely have to cater towards a more pass-heavy script, making it easier to buy into their passing attack. That’s not as much the case with Carson Wentz injured, however.
Indianapolis should be able to run the ball efficiently, which is what Jonathan Taylor needs for fantasy success. At the same time, with the defense facing a tough schedule and the offense likely to struggle, the team’s overall rush attempts could be more limited than expected.
Facing the Cardinals and Raiders in the fantasy playoffs will be great for Taylor–and all Colts players for that matter.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
14	6	23	20

This is another unbalanced schedule, with the Jaguars’ rushing attack facing less resistance than their passing attack. This could be good news for Travis Etienne, assuming he’s Jacksonville’s top running back.
With quarterback Trevor Lawrence, in addition to receivers Laviska Shenault Jr., DJ Chark Jr., and Marvin Jones Sr., you’re hoping there’s enough volume to go around simply based on the team playing from behind. Nevertheless, with no clear top receiver emerging, this might be a passing offense to fade against a difficult slate of opposing pass defenses.
At the same time, playing the Titans, Texans, and Jets in the fantasy postseason is favorable for Jacksonville. Should you decide to roster any of their players, I wouldn’t be looking to trade them off early; they may actually be appealing to trade for once a clear pecking order of opportunity is established.

Kansas City Chiefs

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
13	13	14	19

I would strongly recommend not using strength of schedule at all to evaluate the Chiefs, who are projected to be locked in as the clear #1 offense in the NFL. If you did, though, you should be encouraged by this being a very manageable schedule.

Las Vegas Raiders

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
2	2	1	26

It isn’t smooth sailing for the Raiders offense in 2021. This doesn’t speak well to their ability to pass or run the ball effectively, giving us a logical reason to consider not investing in players here outside of tight end Darren Waller.
With Las Vegas’ opposing offense schedule not looking great, perhaps they’ll be in lower-scoring games than you’d imagine, but their defense also projects very poorly, so I actually wouldn’t expect that to be the case.

Los Angeles Chargers

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
7	11	17	23

There isn’t a lot to take away from the Chargers’ schedule for the 2021 season. I guess their passing schedule could be easier? Consider this an up-and-down schedule that is going to lead to some spike weeks, but some tough matchups as well.
In the playoffs, Los Angeles faces the Giants, Texans, and Broncos; with an easy schedule of opposing offenses during the 2nd half of the year, you may want to consider adding them after their Week 7 bye.
The Texans and Raiders are a great pair of matchups in Weeks 16 and 17 for Chargers players, so they’ll be in a position to perform when you need them most.

Los Angeles Rams

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
11	16	15	4

I wouldn’t call this an unreasonable schedule for the Rams. It’s at its most difficult stages early in the season, but the middle part of the season possesses several favorable matchups: Lions, Texans, Titans, Giants, Jaguars.
For those expecting Los Angeles to be able to once again adopt a run-heavy offense, the addition of Matthew Stafford–along with a defense that loses defensive coordinator Brandon Staley and multiple defensive backs–means that was unlikely to be the case anyways. Facing a difficult schedule of opposing offenses, however, solidifies that.
Thus, the Rams’ pass catchers should be in line for improved volume statistics, especially with Stafford on board. Meanwhile, you might want to avoid Los Angeles’ defense; the division they’re in means six tough matchups, while they also face the Packers, Vikings, Ravens, Bucs, and Titans this season.

Miami Dolphins

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
27	27	25	22

Wow. This is remarkably encouraging for the prospects of a second-year leap for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Remember that he’ll be much healthier this season, and he’ll have his first full training camp to adjust to an offense tailored around his abilities. His supporting cast will be much better as well, including receivers Will Fuller V and Jaylen Waddle, whose respective outlooks also improve with this data point.
With the Patriots, Bills, Colts, and Bucs early, this might not be the smoothest start to the season for Miami. This could suppress their trade value, making them clear buy-low targets. With a backfield by committee and a crowded receiver room, some clarity may also be useful.
If you can do that, you stand to benefit–especially if you need fill-ins for players with byes. In the second half of the year, Miami faces the Jets twice, Panthers, Giants, Texans, and Titans, though the best time to trade for Dolphins players would be prior to Week 6; they’ll be coming off a tough matchup with the Bucs and will be about to face the Jaguars and Falcons.

Minnesota Vikings

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
12	10	22	10

While they have the opportunity to get off to a great start against the Bengals and Cardinals, the Vikings’ passing attack certainly faces some resistance this season. That being said, Dalvin Cook appears poised to continue to perform at an elite level.
What sticks out with the Vikings is how unbalanced their schedule is. In addition to the Bengals and Cardinals, they also play the Seahawks, Lions, Panthers, and Cowboys in the first 9 weeks of the year. After that, though, they face the Packers twice, 49ers, Ravens, Chargers, Steelers, Bears twice, and the Rams. Seriously is there a tougher playoff schedule than playing in Chicago and Green Bay, in addition to the Rams and Steelers?
In other words, be prepared to sell high on your top Vikings players. This makes them more appealing to draft. Furthermore, if you want to draft Trey Lance or Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins could be a useful stopgap quarterback with such an easy schedule to start the season.
I would say Minnesota’s difficult slate of opposing offenses would mean more pass attempts, yet they already ranked in the top ten of rushing attempts with the fourth-worst defense in points/game allowed in 2020, so that wouldn’t appear likely to actually be the case.

New England Patriots

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
31	31	30	14

It’s hard to figure out what the roles will be for offensive skill position players on the Patriots, but looking at their strength of schedule, this needs to be done. Now, the question is if they have enough reinforcements on the rosters to pass the ball effectively.
Running back Damien Harris should help anchor another very productive rushing attack. Also, if Cam Newton is serious about running the ball less or Mac Jones takes over, look for Harris to also have more touchdown opportunities in 2021.
With the Dolphins, Saints, and Bucs within the first four games of the season, could Jones be starting as soon as Week 5? That’s certainly a possibility, though there isn’t a clear time where New England’s schedule is significantly easier or harder than the rest of the time. Their bye week isn’t until Week 14, so that wouldn’t seem to be the expected time for Jones to take over.

New Orleans Saints

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
15	17	11	12

For a first-place schedule, you may have expected the Saints to have an even tougher schedule. It might not be enough for me to recommend drafting anyone outside of Alvin Kamara for reasons other than volume, however.
With the Panthers, Patriots, Giants, and Washington between Weeks 2 and 5, New Orleans might be a defense you’d like to roster during that span.
For those wondering about the leash for whoever gets the starting job at quarterback, this is an up-and-down schedule without any clear pattern, so I wouldn’t put much stock into anything other than who wins the job immediately in terms of projecting the starter for all 17 games.

New York Giants

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
19	21	4	27

Oh no, Saquon Barkley! I’d say the schedule becomes significantly more favorable in the second half, however, which should align right when his role becomes more defined. If you draft him, that’s the stretch where you’re hoping for elite production.
Daniel Jones could be an interesting late-round quarterback due to viable underlying numbers and some rushing ability, and the Giants passing attack will face less resistance than their rushing attack. It is hard to buy into this offense, however, and I’m not sure the strength of schedule is going to do much to change that.
The Broncos and Washington Football Team are a very difficult start for the team’s skill players, though their defense could be worth drafting with that opening schedule.

New York Jets

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
16	7	28	31

It won’t be an easy slate for rookie quarterback Zach Wilson. Playing in a division with the Bills, Dolphins, and Patriots won’t help him pass the ball effectively at an efficient rate.
If someone could emerge as the top running back in New York, such as Michael Carter, there could definitely be some intrigue there. Unfortunately, that appears unlikely to happen.
Although it is unlikely the Jets possess a strong defense this year, there is a chance new head coach Robert Saleh helps a young group of players put it together. If so, only the Bucs have a softer schedule of opposing offenses than them.

Philadelphia Eagles

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
28	30	6	21

We’re about to see if Jalen Hurts has what it takes to be a starting-caliber quarterback in the NFL, and he’ll be in a great situation from a schedule standpoint. Now, whether he and the Eagles offense takes advantage of that remains to be seen.
For an offense that is supposed to run at a great frequency, how the schedule plays out is probably not ideal for them. The schedule of opposing run defenses is much harder in the second half of the season, making running back Miles Sanders a potential midseason “sell-high” trade chip.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
9	8	26	1

For those excited about first-round rookie running back Najee Harris, this certainly won’t help contain that excitement! Not only does Harris face a bottom-ten slate of opposing run defenses, but Pittsburgh may be inclined to give him even more carries if they struggle to move the ball through the air against a difficult pass defense schedule.
The Steelers this season play the Bills, Packers, Browns (twice), Ravens (twice), Seahawks, Vikings, Titans, and Chiefs. After finishing as an elite defense last year, I wouldn’t recommend doubling down on them in 2021.

San Francisco 49ers

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
30	28	27	7

Need another reason to be excited about a 49ers offense that should be at full health this season? This is the benefit of receiving a fourth-place schedule.
Really, since a high amount of touches aren’t guaranteed for any player on this roster, this is great news for all of them; they’ll need to be extremely efficient to thrive in fantasy this season.
Looking for when Trey Lance takes over? Perhaps after their bye in week 6. A playoff schedule of the Bengals, Falcons, Titans, and Texans may be all you need to be convinced to draft him, or any 49ers player for that matter.
The defense faces the Lions and Eagles to start the year, so keep them on your radar in the draft.

Seattle Seahawks

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
5	4	18	17

Then, there are the Seahawks, who have to face a first-place schedule this year. We’d love to see Russell Wilson and the team’s passing offense “cook”, but a tough passing schedule combined with a middling run defense schedule is not great; head coach Pete Carroll may once again push for a run-heavy offense in 2021.
While there are a couple soft matchups, there isn’t a clear stretch where the Seahawks are at a position to thrive. For them to succeed, it’ll come down to them getting the best of some very strong defenses.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
24	23	2	32

A full offseason to adjust the offense and positive regression with fewer drops was already coming for Tom Brady and the Bucs’ passing attack, but a bottom-ten pass defense schedule is the finishing piece to that puzzle. While the team’s crowded receiver room isn’t ideal for fantasy, Brady is not only one of my favorite quarterback targets, but also a potential MVP winner in 2021.
Tampa Bay may not run the ball efficiently, and their running back situation is already incredibly murky. Ronald Jones for some touchdown potential? Giovanni Bernard on third downs? It’s hard to really get excited about this group with the way it sorts out at the moment.
Here’s a bold prediction: the Bucs will finish as the #1 fantasy defense in 2021. They return every starter, have an extremely easy schedule after the first three games, and already rate out as my top projected defense.

Tennessee Titans

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
20	19	21	25

The lesson from this? Play in the AFC South. When almost a quarter of your schedule is against the Jaguars and Texans, you’re gonna be in good shape.
That being said, the Titans face the 49ers, Steelers, and Dolphins during the fantasy football playoffs, while one of their games against Houston is in Week 18. In fact, the middle of their schedule is quite tough. Thus, this may actually be underestimating how difficult Tennessee’s fantasy schedule truly is.

Washington Football Team

Opp Defense SOS	Passing SOS	Rushing SOS	Opp Offense SOS
23	22	8	11

Who’s ready to see Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing passes to Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and co.? This could be a really fun passing offense if they can take advantage of a favorable schedule.
Many expect Antonio Gibson to take on a major workload, yet he’ll need to produce as a receiver to reach his ultimate fantasy potential. Not only will he face a difficult schedule of run defenses, but Washington may be forced to keep up with other strong offenses.
Yes, I understand that the Football Team is very talented defensively. However, good offenses tend to beat good defenses, and their schedule (Cowboys twice, Chargers, Chiefs, Bills, Falcons, Packers, Bucs, Seahawks) isn’t easy. Keep that in mind when considering drafting them, especially since they never face consecutive below-average offenses; it’s time to consistently be rostering them unless you want to roster multiple defenses.

Photo by All-Pro Reels (https://www.flickr.com/photos/joeglo/) | Feature Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter)

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