Quarterback production in fantasy isn’t as much about volume; efficiency matters, as do touchdowns, although they aren’t as stable. Simply taking away touchdowns and looking at the players who produce the most yardage (weighing rushing twice as much as passing), can give you a good idea of which players are thriving in a more stable fashion. At the quarterback position, I’m obviously evaluating them as players (they dictate the offense), but also the stability of their current situation, their rushing upside moving forward, and their room to grow moving forward. Is this their peak, or will they be regarded even higher in fantasy leagues in the future? That’s the $1,000,0000 question we’re trying to answer.
Before we get to the rankings, let’s go over some of the key points to touch on:
- It appears that the late-season injury Lamar Jackson had is making people overlook him. He averaged 25.75 PFF expected points per game in his 11 full games this season, and nearly led the league in rushing yards despite not playing a full season. With his rushing upside and a more pass-heavy Ravens offense, his path to being the QB1 is legitimate next year, and he’s only 25-years-old. Buy-low now if possible!
- It’s officially time for Trey Lance to be unleashed! In 2.5 games under center this season, Lance averaged 18.03 points per game, with 12.5 rushing attempt per game in his two games started. His fantasy ceiling is through the roof, regardless of his progression as a real-life quarterback. See: early-career Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.
- I’m very excited for Justin Fields next season. Here are his finishes in his last four games started: QB3, QB9, QB8, QB10. In those games, he averaged 64.25 rushing yards per game, and leaned on his scrambling abilities as the season went on. With a new coaching staff, look for him to make good on his elite college profile with a major step forward in year #2. There’s a reason he was my rookie QB1 coming into the year, after all.
- With two top-three finishes to end the season, here’s hoping Russell Wilson finally found his groove that has hampered by injury. Going to a new offense, one with more passing volume, would do significant wonders for his fantasy value as well.
- You’d figure Daniel Jones is entering his make-or-break year in 2022, but he gets to be paired with Brian Daboll. Even if he doesn’t emerge as a franchise quarterback, he adds some rushing upside and could be part of a high-passing volume offense. That’s enough to make him an interesting QB2 in fantasy for at least next year.
- Even with new head coach Mike McDaniel, I’m not super optimistic about Tua Tagovailoa, who had more than twice as many turnover-worthy plays (22, 4.8%) as he did big-time-throws (10, 2.4%). Without the passing volume he had last year, it’s hard to see him being viable from a fantasy perspective if he remains so conservative (7.4 average depth of target last year).