- The wide receiver position is tricky to project ahead of Week 1, especially for teams where the target breakdowns are ambiguous entering the year. This is the least amount of information we’ll have on defensive matchups all year, so a lot of my rankings come down to the roles I’ve projected for different players.
- While some may hesitate to start Elijah Moore against a loaded Ravens secondary, remember that Moore was actually more productive with Joe Flacco under center than Zach Wilson last year. I expect Moore to dominate New York’s targets during a game in which they will have to throw to keep up. He falls squarely in the WR3/Flex range.
- Kadarius Toney is reportedly healthy enough to play. Toney ranked 2nd among last year’s rookies with 2.14 yards per route run, behind only Ja’Marr Chase. He should be considered the Giants’ #1 receiving option when on the field and deserves to be ranked above secondary and tertiary targets on other non-elite passing offenses. The Weekly Range of Outcomes Tool (which you can learn more about and access here) visualizes Toney’s upside compared to a safer option like Christian Kirk.
- Amari Cooper enters 2022 with both the least target competition and the worst quarterback play of his career. With the Browns implied just 19.5 points against Carolina in what’s likely to be a run-heavy, low-scoring game, this probably isn’t Cooper’s week.
- Julio Jones and Russell Gage both step in to a favorable game environment if Chris Godwin is out or limited. Tampa Bay are favorites in a 50-point over/under affair against Dallas. Both demand mention as touchdown-dependent desperation flex plays, though no more than that, given Tampa Bay’s assortment of injuries along the offensive line.
- Isaiah McKenzie seems primed to take over the slot in Buffalo. You’re unlikely to need to play him on Thursday, but the snap and target breakdown for the Bills is one of the bigger stories to watch early this week.
- Rondale Moore and Jalen Tolbert are two young players who could surprise in what are likely to be high-scoring games. Both could take on larger-than-expected roles due to the early-season absences of DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Gallup.
Green=Strong Starter, Yellow=Solid Starter, Red=Look for Better Options