Ryan Heath’s WR Rankings
- It is time to draw some conclusions about how involved (or not) some receivers are in their passing offenses. Some of these stands may be premature, but occasionally jumping the gun is better than stubbornly sticking to priors.
- This starts with Garrett Wilson. The fantasy WR12 overall ranks top-25 in air yards share and top-3 in expected touchdown share through two weeks. In other words, Wilson’s targets have overwhelmingly come deep down the field and near the end zone. I have him ranked aggressively above Elijah Moore, as Wilson has nearly doubled Moore’s 12% target share thus far despite less playing time. Moore will probably have his weeks as well, but it looks like the more highly-touted prospect is taking over faster than we imagined.
- Speaking of phenomenal rookie wideouts, I’ve made sure to rank both Drake London and Chris Olave above consensus as well. London ranks fourth at the position in target share, while Olave ranks eighth in air yards share. The offenses that all three of these players reside in could hold them back as consistent fantasy options, but it’s clear they demand opportunity and will perform as long as their quarterbacks can hold it together.
- Through two weeks, the Chicago Bears have ranked dead last in pass rate over expected, last in first downs, and second-to-last in total snaps. The Bears simply do not want to play offense, and until that changes, Darnell Mooney is not startable. His five(!) total targets have hilariously been good for a 17.9% target share and 30.4% air yards share. It won’t matter until the Bears decide to join us in the 21st century.
- Jakobi Meyers may prove to be an underrated fantasy option again this year. While his expected touchdown share has been a hilariously small 9.4%, his 29.7% target share and 34.3% air yards share rank 12th and 26th at the position, respectively. The Patriots are likely to face a negative game script against a Ravens secondary that has allowed by far the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Facing Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill with multiple DBs injured will do that to you.
- Adam Thielen is probably ranked too low given the game environment, but he completely disappeared until the final minutes of the Vikings’ loss to the Eagles despite Justin Jefferson drawing heavy defensive attention the entire night. He hasn’t seen as many scoring opportunities compared to years past, with his expected touchdown share of 21.3% ranking outside the top-40.
Green=Strong Starter, Yellow=Solid Starter, Red=Look for Better Options