Ryan Heath’s QB Rankings
- Week 3 is the time to take some stands. We only have two weeks of data, but that’s over 10% of the fantasy football season! We can also lean heavily on implied point totals at the quarterback position. Underdogs in low-total games who have yet to perform well are not going to be ranked highly, even if they’ve seen fantasy and real-life success in the past.
- This applies most to Aaron Rodgers, who falls out of my solid starter tier this week. The Packers and Buccaneers’ over/under has fallen to just 41.5, with Green Bay implied for just 19.75 of those points. For comparison, Jared Goff and the Lions are implied for 23.75 points, while Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins are implied for 24.25 points. Those quarterbacks have much better weapons than Rodgers, and both have ranked above him in pass rate over expected through two weeks. There isn’t much of an argument to rank Rodgers any higher without relying on data from previous years (and very different Packers offenses). Despite consensus projections continuing to overrate Rodgers, the Weekly Range of Outcomes Tool illustrates that Goff has a better chance of scoring more than 18.1 fantasy points.
- After a disappointing showing on Monday Night Football, Kirk Cousins is in an excellent spot to bounce back. The Vikings boast the highest implied total of the week in what could be a shootout for the ages against Detroit. The Lions have given up the 3rd-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year, behind only the Cardinals and Ravens.
- Marcus Mariota ranks as the fantasy QB13 after two weeks, in which he has averaged nine rush attempts and 44 rushing yards per game. He’s been middling as a passer and ranks just 20th in attempted air yards, but his rushing should keep him in the streaming mix every week. The Seahawks have been about average against quarterbacks in fantasy, but have allowed the 4th-most yards per pass attempt in the league so far.
Green=Strong Starter, Yellow=Solid Starter, Red=Look for Better Options